This article is part of our King for a Day series.
There's one last week of NFL action at DraftKings, and even with just four teams playing, there are three contests featuring prize pools of $300,000+, highlighted by the $700K Championship Game ($20 entry, $100K to first).
If first place is the goal (it is), creating a unique lineup will be even more important than finding value, as the lineups that project to score the most points will likely be used more than one person. While it's typically unwise to leave more than $200-300 of your budget unspent, having $500+ leftover might actually be beneficial for GPPs this week, as it significantly decreases the chances that your lineup will be used by a bunch of other people. The best starting point is to figure out which studs you like most, and then try out a bunch of different combinations around them.
Here are my favorite players for conference championship weekend on DraftKings…
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers, GB (at SEA), $7800 – It's an interesting week for selecting quarterbacks, as all four options are among the best at the position, with price tags that fall in a $700 range. Despite carrying the lowest price, Rodgers figures to be the least popular choice, due to some combination of matchup, injury and home-road splits. I think all three factors are a bit overblown, which makes Rodgers a strong GPP option, even though I'd easily prefer Luck for cash games and 50/50s. The Green Bay offense is capable of exploding against any defense, and you'll likely be competing with fewer stacks.
other options:Andrew Luck, IND (at NE), $8200; Russell Wilson, SEA (vs, GB), $8000
Notes: Luck gets a difficult matchup with an excellent pass defense, but volume shouldn't be a problem, and he's your best bet to get the 300-yard bonus. Wilson faces the most vulnerable pass defense remaining, in a game with sneaky shootout potential.
Running Backs
Daniel Herron, IND (at NE), $5900 – Herron is almost a must-start in any daily PPR game, after catching 18 passes in Indy's first two playoff contests. With the Colts facing a team that counts the defensive backfield among its greatest strengths, Herron should see another heavy workload through the air. Of the running back options this week, only Herron and Shane Vereen benefit from scenarios in which their team is trailing. Herron's team is far more likely to find itself in that scenario.
LeGarrette Blount, NE (vs. IND), $4500 – The Patriots like to go with one extreme or the other when it comes to their early-game play-calling, and while the passing game was an obvious choice last week, it makes more sense to run the ball against Indianapolis. Much has been made of Indy's improved run defense, but the team's front seven still consists of the same mediocre (to put it kindly) personnel, backed up by safeties that are better against the pass. The likely absence of Patriots center Bryan Stork (knee) does give me some pause, but I still think New England will be able to control the line of scrimmage. Many will recall the matchup between these teams in Week 11, when Jonas Gray came out of nowhere to rumble for 201 yards and four touchdowns. While Gray will likely be active for Sunday's game, Bill Belichick's roster decision last week makes it clear that Blount is the preferred power back. The Hoodie may be known for catching fantasy owners off-guard with his decisions regarding running backs, but I'd be shocked if Gray gets more carries than Blount.
other options:Marshawn Lynch, SEA (vs. GB), $7600; Eddie Lacy, GB (at SEA), $6300
Notes: The quarterback and running back spots are both a crapshoot this week, with four very reasonable options. Lynch probably has the most potential for a massive game, as he's playing for a favored team against a Green Bay squad that struggles against the run. I have Beast Mode and/or a Packers passing-game stack in pretty much every lineup. The matchup for Lacy isn't nearly as bad as you might think, due to the slew of injuries Seattle has dealt with at defensive tackle, in addition to the Seahawks' tendency to give up receptions to running back. If I weren't all over Rodgers and the Green Bay receivers, I'd prefer Lacy to Lynch in the majority of lineups.
Wide Receivers
Randall Cobb/Jordy Nelson, GB (at SEA), $7700/$7600 – I normally do three or four write-ups at wide receiver, but it just seemed silly this week. There are only two games to choose from, and I prefer to build around game scenarios more so than players. As it just so happens, the players I do want to build around are running backs and tight ends, with the wide receivers being chosen to fill in the remaining spots. Now, that being said, I think both star Green Bay receivers have the potential for huge games, and I want at least one of the two in pretty much any lineup.
The Packers will likely use Davante Adams the way they used Jarrett Boykin in Week 1, lining him up against Richard Sherman on the right side for the entire game. That would leave Nelson and Cobb to deal with the much more palatable coverage of Jeremy Lane (Cobb) and Byron Maxwell/Tharold Simon (Nelson), which would likely lead to a slew of targets for both receivers. If forced to choose one, I slightly prefer Nelson to Cobb, especially if Maxwell is unexpectedly not able to play. With both carrying near-identical price tags, Cobb will likely be a more popular choice due to the recent results. I'd rather lean on the larger sample size, which indicates that Nelson and Cobb produce at nearly the same level.
other options:T.Y. Hilton, IND (at NE), $7000; Doug Baldwin, SEA (vs. GB), $5000; Donte Moncrief, IND (at NE), $3500; Reggie Wayne, IND (at NE), $2800; Ricardo Lockette, SEA (vs. GB), $2300
Notes: Hilton figures to see a lot of Darrelle Revis, but the price and volume expectation keep him in play. Baldwin can provide a huge game at a below-average price, if Seattle falls behind. Everyone in the Indy passing game is in play, due to the possibility of Revis shadowing Hilton. Lockette will step into the No. 3 wideout role for Paul Richardson (knee), and the minimum price has been dropped to $2000.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski, NE (vs. IND), $7800 – While I expect the Patriots to do quite a bit of running, Gronkowski is hard to pass up. He played every snap in last week's win over the Ravens, and even a run-heavy gameplan will likely have playaction passes to Gronk as a major component. Most players need Sunday's games to play out a certain way in order to have a big showing, but Gronk – along with Cobb and Nelson – should be fine in pretty much any scenario. With the Colts most vulnerable to the running game and passes over the middle, I love a Gronk-Blount combo.
other options:Coby Fleener, IND (at NE), $4300; Tony Moeaki, SEA (vs. GB), $2000
Notes: Dwayne Allen is the better player, but the price gap is small enough that I prefer the more frequently targeted Fleener. Moeaki is your second punt option among Russell Wilson's targets, and I prefer him to a streaking Luke Willson.
Team D/ST
New England Patriots vs. IND, $3200 – The Patriots struggled against Baltimore last week, but I still prefer to bet against the only remaining offense that turns the ball over frequently. You know you're dealing with a four-team slate when it's reasonable to stack a team's passing game, and also use the defense they're facing. Volume will be Andrew Luck's friend, but it should also lead to some sacks and takeaways for the Patriots.
other options:Green Bay Packers (at SEA), $2900
Notes: The Seahawks D/ST will be a popular pick, but I'm not seeing much upside for $3600 in a matchup with turnover-averse Aaron Rodgers. Even when he struggles, Rodgers rarely turns the ball over. I'd rather take a lesser-used and cheaper Green Bay unit, especially if I'm already banking on the Packers having a decent game.
