Job Battles: Funchess Falling

Running backs

Austin Ekeler vs. Justin Jackson, LAC

Pretty much all week I was baffled to the point of sputtering confusion by the number of people who seemed to think Jackson was better than Ekeler, because there was just a complete absence of evidence for the idea. I understand the impulse to hastily dismiss a player like Ekeler when you pay up your FAAB just to see him have a bad game against the Steelers, but it's important to maintain historical perspective on these players if you don't want them to catch you by surprise.

One bad game, and particularly one bad game against one of the league's better run defenses, is something that can happen to almost any runner. Ekeler gave his owners a complete dud against Pittsburgh, no doubt about it, but it was easy to spot it for the anomaly it was. This is a guy whose 145 career carries netted 756 yards (5.2 YPC) and four touchdowns, and whose 87 career targets yielded 66 receptions (75.9 percent catch rate) for 683 yards (7.9 YPT) and six touchdowns. Ekeler probably can't be a workhorse like Melvin Gordon, but in terms of the threat he poses from scrimmage, Ekeler is simply one of the best. That convincing production can't be dismissed over one bad game.

Ekeler's case only gets stronger when you delve into his prospect background. He played for tiny Western Colorado, but his production there was excellent even when adjusting for level, totaling 5,857 rushing yards (6.2 YPC) and 55 touchdowns in just 40 games, adding 115 receptions for 1,215 yards and eight touchdowns. It was his pro day where Ekeler really clinched his case, however, registering plainly elite numbers with a 4.43-second 40-yard dash, 40.5-inch vertical, 128-inch broad jump, and 6.85-second three-cone drill. When you see college production and workout metrics like that, and then see the previously cited NFL production, don't overthink it. This guy is good.

Jackson is probably good too, but he's not at Ekeler's level. Jackson's skill set is probably standout, but his athletic tools lag in comparison to Ekeler. Jackson's 4.52-second 40-yard dash at the combine was fine at a glance, but it's problematic for a runner with such poor body density (199 pounds at 6-feet tall), and the gap in jumps (38.5-inch vertical, 122-inch broad jump) point toward the contrasting explosiveness of the two players.

Now, Ekeler is reportedly trying to play through a stinger, perhaps more than one. If he's unavailable or otherwise limited physically, then Jackson is a great candidate to play well in his place. But don't go doubting Ekeler, and don't expect Jackson to outplay him if the two are both healthy.

Zach Zenner vs. LeGarrette Blount, DET

Real Draft Twitter people have known this for years, but it took the Lions until the second half of Sunday's game against Arizona to realize that Zenner is better than Blount.

Zenner is a favorite of Draft Twitter truthers because the guy was super productive at South Dakota State, and his workout metrics at the combine were explosive. Zenner hasn't been given a serious NFL opportunity to this point, but he's done well with the limited work he's received. Zenner's only serious audition was in 2016, when he ran for 334 yards and four touchdowns on 88 carries (3.8 YPC) while turning 23 targets into 18 receptions for 196 yards. He started four games that year, against the Rams, Washington, Dallas, and Green Bay. In those games he ran for 223 yards (4.1 YPC) and four touchdowns, adding eight receptions for 85 yards on 12 targets.

Those numbers aren't great or anything, but three of those defenses were among the league's best in terms of yards allowed per carry, and Zenner made the most of the situation considering the Lions finished that year with the third-fewest rushing yards in the league. Zenner's 4.6 speed doesn't stand out, but at the 2015 combine he demonstrated his underrated explosiveness with a 41-inch vertical and 121-inch broad jump at 223 pounds.

If Kerryon Johnson (knee) is unable to return this week, then Detroit would be foolish to give Blount more carries than Zenner. They might do it anyway, but Blount is averaging a pitiful 2.9 yards per carry on the year, and even his theoretical power element doesn't manifest in the results in any useful way. As our advanced statistics show in Blount's RotoWire player profile, his positive run percentage of 73.5 and after-contact average of 2.1 yards both rank among the worst for running backs, let alone running backs who are completely power-dependent like Blount is. If he's not breaking tackles at a fast enough rate to offset his elusiveness liability, then what's the point? Blount used to be a better player, but he was never good enough to withstand the decline he's clearly experiencing right now.

Gus Edwards vs. Kenneth Dixon vs. Ty Montgomery, BAL

Edwards continued to serve as Baltimore's clear lead runner against the Chiefs on Sunday, finishing with 16 carries for 67 yards, but Dixon poached the only short-range touchdown in the backfield while adding 59 yards on eight carries and a 21-yard reception on his only target. Montgomery was surprisingly a no-show, finishing with one yard on two carries and a one-yard reception on three targets.

Perhaps we can conclude that Edwards remains the lead runner while Dixon and Montgomery will alternate relevance depending on the game script, ie., Dixon playing more the closer the game and Montgomery playing more the more the catch-up script. I don't think it's a safe assumption at any of the three points, though. Dixon has run very well since his return from injury, totaling 96 yards on 16 carries, and with that he might earn a promotion over the eight carries he's seen in each game. That would occur at he expense of Edwards, though, and if Dixon displaces Edwards as the running specialist then it might be Montgomery who takes the second-most active role instead of Edwards. Edwards has yet to see a single target in 78 carries, so if his current function is displaced there might not be a second one to fall back on. Despite their various issues, Dixon and Montgomery are still the best prospects here, so those using Edwards might want to examine alternatives just in case we hear word about more work for Dixon going forward.

Wide receivers

Curtis Samuel vs. Devin Funchess, CAR

Here's one I wasn't expecting. It's been obvious for most of this year, in my opinion, that Samuel is the best receiver on the Panthers. I still think Funchess is a good prospect who will have at least a few standout NFL seasons, but he was always more tools than polish and he remains raw enough to cause frustrating bouts of inconsistency despite his promise. Samuel, for whatever reason, is polished, even despite playing running back for most of his Ohio State career. Samuel started over Ezekiel Elliott against Illinois in 2014, yet just four years later he's one of the NFL's best route runners.

That Samuel is one of the league's best route runners as well as one of the league's fastest players (4.31-second 40-yard dash) makes him profoundly dangerous, and that's not even to account for his advanced skill set after the catch thanks to his years playing running back. There's not much Funchess can do to keep up, because it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Samuel proves himself a top-20 wideout in the near future. His hands probably aren't great, but we're talking 10th percentile quality in terms of big-play ability, and at all parts of the field. He can do Percy Harvin stuff on screens or out of the backfield, he can kill you on posts just as easily as slants, and if you leave him in single coverage you dare six points on a fly route. He just turned 22 in August, so there is obvious star power here.

Despite all of this, Ron Rivera seemed to harbor an inexplicable skepticism toward Samuel the last two years. I'm not sure why. The Panthers selected Samuel high in the second round last year, so it's not as if there was some political incentive to play the likes of Funchess, Torrey Smith, and Jarius Wright ahead of Samuel. Perhaps Rivera leaned on a reductive truism like 'Guys who change position need three years before you can trust them,' or some such thing, but I again have no idea why and if the reason is otherwise I'd probably find it even more confusing.

Sunday's game against Cleveland perhaps marked a shift for Rivera. Funchess played 32 snaps last week to Samuel's 58, but it seemed reasonable to chalk that up to Funchess working his way into shape after missing the prior week with a back injury. But the back was not an expressed concern going into yesterday's game, and Funchess took a back seat to Samuel all the same. Not only did Samuel finish with a team-leading 80 yards on four catches and eight targets, but the Riot Report credited Samuel (69) with more snaps than not only Funchess (29), but even presumed WR1 D.J. Moore (67).

Maybe Funchess rallies a bit here in the final weeks, but it looks like it will have to be at the expense of someone other than Samuel or Moore, both of whom are quickly establishing themselves among the most feared receivers in the league.

Jamison Crowder vs. Maurice Harris, WAS

Perhaps there's nothing sustainable to take from it given Washington's improbable quarterback misfortune – self-inflicted as the Mark Sanchez part of that might be – but Crowder finally got on the map Sunday just in time to torment his long-burned fantasy investors with a glimpse of what might have been.

Limited to just six games this year with a chronic ankle issue, Crowder has been both unavailable and rarely productive when he is suited up, as his 79-yard garbage time touchdown against the Giants was only his second touchdown of the year, and the resulting 87 yards on two catches (seven targets) was a season-high for yardage. Crowder has flashed good to borderline great efficiency in his Washington career, converting 68.6 percent of his targets at 8.0 yards per target heading into 2018, but the limits of the Washington passing game conspired with his injury troubles to make it a waste of a season.

But at least his big play from Sunday showed he still has 'it' if he's both healthy and granted an opportunity. At the very least there's no concern of Crowder falling on the depth chart, as Harris' 10-catch, 124-yard game from Week 9 seems impossible in hindsight – he has just 65 yards on 16 targets since then, including three straight weeks without a catch. Trey Quinn (ankle) was a much bigger threat to Crowder, but Quinn is on IR.

Trent Sherfield vs. Chad Williams (hamstring), ARZ

Williams opened the season as one of Arizona's two starting outside receivers, comically listed ahead of Christian Kirk at one point, but the second-year third-round pick out of Grambling has been a complete dud to this point in his NFL career and is in the midst of a five-week stretch of missed games due to injury.

The opening has allowed Sherfield to make an improbable appearance into Arizona's receiver rotation after beginning the year inactive. In combination with Kirk's season-ending foot injury, Sherfield found himself as Arizona's top outside receiver against Detroit on Sunday. He didn't disappoint, finishing the game with five catches for 77 yards on seven targets, and now it's time to take seriously his chances of opening 2019 as a starter for Arizona. Larry Fitzgerald might have another year left in him, but the league is heading toward a three-receiver paradigm and Sherfield is a totally decent prospect despite his undrafted origins.

Sherfield (6-feet, 203 pounds) was a snub from the combine, something I disagreed with even at the time. Sherfield played for a bad Vanderbilt passing attack but quietly did a great job within it, impressing with 659 yards and three touchdowns in his age-19 season before finishing his career with 50 receptions for 729 yards and five touchdowns on 75 targets last year. That's a 66.7 percent catch rate at 9.7 yards per target in an offense that completed just 57.6 percent of its passes at 7.3 YPA. Sherfield went on to do well at his pro day, where he was credited with a 4.45-second 40-yard dash but was timed as low as 4.39 seconds. He should be owned in dynasty leagues, and he's a chance for deep-league redraft owners to maybe find some free receiver production if they missed out on Robert Foster.