FSGA Futures and Props Draft Recap

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

FSGA Futures and Props Draft Recap: Best NFL and College Football Futures for 2023 

The FSGA runs a number of expert drafts each summer and I was fortunate enough to be included in the FSGA Futures and Props Draft. It's a unique concept where the snake draft methodology that's common in fantasy drafts is applied to betting markets. An additional wrinkle is that you have an imaginary bankroll of $10K for your draft to spread across all 12 rounds with minimum and maximum wagers in place. Conventional wisdom may steer you toward putting your max bets on safer wagers (+300 or lower) while sprinkling smaller wagers on longshots. That's the beauty of this league, though. There is no such thing as conventional wisdom.

This league is unlike any other and therefore there's no such thing as ADP. One of your few recourses when it comes to game theory is to identify any patterns emerging from other drafters. For example, is there a team that placed an NFL MVP bet in the first few rounds? They may be targeting a correlated Super Bowl future in the next round or two. Beyond that, this is the Wild West. 

Below, I'll lay out the basic rules and the markets used in the draft, along with some pick-by-pick analysis and a look at the entire draft board. Let's dive in.

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The Ground Rules

• Snake Draft
• 17 Teams, 12 Rounds
• $10,000 Bankroll
• $250 Min Bet, $1,750 Max Bet Per Pick
• NFL Season-Long Player Props
• NFL Awards (NFL MVP, Coach of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, etc.)
• Super Bowl
• Division Winners
• NFL Win Totals
• College Football National Championship
• College Football Win Totals
• Heisman Trophy
• Conference Champions

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Draft Strategy

This is my fourth year participating in the FSGA Futures and Props draft, and despite not having a ton of success in this league just yet, I believe that I've identified the best way to attack the board. What wins this league is not hitting a bunch of -110 bets; you need to hit a couple of longshots to put you over the top. You can't steer too far in that direction, though, as that opens up the possibility of whiffing on your entire draft. 

While I noted the unpredictability of this draft in the opening, there are still some angles to keep in mind. I cut my teeth on college football here at RotoWire and it's still where I feel like I have the strongest handle when it comes to betting markets. That's an important edge in this room as there were only a handful of other college football-centric drafters, so that guided many of my early-round leans. 

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Draft Picks

Before we dive in, you can check out the entire draft board to see all the participants' picks and potential payouts.

Round 1

The Pick: Georgia to win the National Championship (+220; $1750 wager)

I picked from the No.3 spot and after the first two picks went towards the NFL side, I knew I had the entire college football catalog at my disposal. Sure, you can call me a homer for taking Georgia to win the national championship (+220) and you'd be right. But you can't argue with the Dawgs being a good pick in this format, either. 

The two-time defending champs have a soft schedule (not their fault!) and despite losing program legend Stetson Bennett IV, Georgia is loaded on both sides of the ball as it looks to be the first team to three-peat since Minnesota did it when FDR was in office.

There are some strong contenders that won't be on Georgia's schedule until December or January, of course. Alabama is still Alabama as long as Saban is there, but replacing Bryce Young is a much bigger task for the 'Tide than replacing SBIV is for Georgia. Same goes for Ohio State with C.J. Stroud. Michigan has the best backfield in the country and a returning starter at quarterback, so the Wolverines have the ammo to make a run to the CFP at the very least. 

Still, Georgia is the favorite and I do not see the 'Dawgs taking their foot off the gas this year. Max betting them at +220 to start things off felt like the right move.

Round 2

The Pick: Jordan Travis to win the Heisman Trophy (+1600; $1,000 Wager)

I was hoping Caleb Williams (+500) would make it back to me in Round 2, but with 28 picks between my first and second selections, I should have known that was wishful thinking. The list of available Heisman options was rather limited in this draft as no one had odds longer than +2000 so I couldn't get too crazy with my pick. Maybe that was a good thing, though. Kept me grounded.

I gravitated toward Jordan Travis at +1600 as a result. It's all in front of him this season; he's experienced as he enters his third full season as the starter and has started to show the potential to be one of the nation's top quarterbacks.

Adding on, Florida State showed marked improvement last season and with all of the returning talent coupled with a strong recruiting class and transfer portal haul, this team has the juice to make a run. That's a major prerequisite for a Heisman bet -- can your player's team be in the mix for a playoff spot by season's end? If not, it's probably a bad bet unless you were on Lamar Jackson in 2016. 

Beyond Travis' own talent and team context, the rest of the ACC is far from intimidating. The road game at Clemson on Sept. 23 will be a big benchmark in how we view the 'Noles this season but that's the only ACC game that's intimidating. There's also the matter of the season-opener against LSU, which is another top title contender this season. If Travis can run the table in September and notch two of the best wins on the board, he could be in the Top 3 in the Heisman odds before we even need to put on a sweatshirt. 

I went with an aggressive $1,000 bet on Travis to hunt a big payout and there's a path to it coming in. I also felt that going with a Heisman bet was the right way to get exposure to FSU without needing them to win it all given that I still think they're a notch below that caliber. 

Round 3

The Pick: Penn State to win the Big 10 (+600; $1,000)

Coming back around, I wanted to get one more college football bet in before turning my attention to the NFL. Again, the name of the game in this draft is identifying under-targeted markets and the Big Ten represented a clean slate. 

Michigan (+185) and Ohio State (+165) are understandably the favorites to come out of the B1G but I did not love those odds, especially when Penn State is right there in terms of talent but sits at 6/1 by comparison.

The above chart comes from Bud Elliott's Blue Chip Ratio article at 247 Sports, a must-read every summer.

Penn State has an elite run game spearheaded by a pair of electric sophomores in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, along with a talented offensive line. The defense is loaded as well.

The biggest determining factor will be first-year starter Drew Allar at quarterback. Was Sean Clifford putting a cap on Penn State's potential over the last few years or will this be more of the same? That's the question. I am an Allar believer, though, and with the games against Michigan and Ohio State each being preceded by soft matchups (Massachusetts, Maryland), I like the chances of Penn State going at least 1-1 in that matchup pairing. Penn State will need to finally deliver on its potential or else this will look like yet another unsatisfying season in Happy Valley. At 6/1, I'm willing to back the idea that the Nittany Lions break through this year.

Round 4

The Pick: Jaguars to win the AFC South (-155, $800)

I'd planned on saving this one and taking Calvin Ridley for Comeback Player of the Year (+6000) but I was a pick too late as the good folks at SCA Promotions nabbed that with the pick right before me. 

Rattled but resolute, I put down a conservative bet on the Jags to win the South. If I'd targeted NFL earlier in the draft, I would have had heavy exposure to some Jags futures. I'm fully sold on Trevor Lawrence establishing himself as an elite quarterback this season and in that division, that should be more than enough  to take the division even if I'm giving up some juice here. 

Round 5

The Pick: USC to win the PAC-12 (+200; $550)

This was the easiest and best way to get at USC. I think their defense and trench personnel is well behind what it would need to reach the mountain top, but I am surprised that the Trojans are plus-money to win the PAC-12. Washington will regress, Utah has to come to Hollywood, and USC's toughest regular season game is a non-con matchup with Notre Dame. With the reigning Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback, USC should be able to run the table or go 11-1 thanks to the offense and take down the PAC-12 Title in December. How it performs in the playoff is an entirely different story.

My only regret here is not going bigger than $550. 

Round 6

The Pick: UCLA to win the PAC-12 (+1500; $400)

There was only one other PAC-12 wager (Oregon State +1100) between my USC pick and my next selection, so I went back to well with my favorite P12 darkhorse. 

Yes, UCLA lost Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet, but Chip Kelly has become a transfer portal whisperer and the Bruins also have the most continuity along the offensive line of any Power 5 team. That all matters. 

Chip's system works even in today's game with Top 15 finishes in team rushing yards per game in each of the last three years. The quarterback depth chart is intriguing, too; Collin Schlee is a nice pickup in the transfer portal who has 22 games under his belt and has some nice rushing ability (492 yards, 4 TD in 2022). If Schlee is not the guy, UCLA could press play on the Dante Moore era as Moore is the Bruins' highest-rated QB signing of the recruiting rankings era.

UCLA's schedule is pretty tough; the non-con features games against Coastal Carolina and San Diego State along with conference roadies against Utah, Oregon State, Arizona and USC.  It'll be a tough road to take down the PAC12 Championship, but I also think UCLA's upside is understated by the 15/1 pricetag.

Round 7

The Pick: Buffalo Bills UNDER 10.5 Wins (-110; $350)

I can't quite articulate why exactly, but something feels off with the Bills this year. I may be putting too much weight into how last season ended when they got pushed around at home in the snow by a Bengals team that was essentially running out a second-string offensive line. The Bills have had an entire offseason to move past that and they've made some moves that theoretically could prevent that from happening again.

The offseason hasn't all been smooth sailing, though. Not only did the division get stronger around Buffalo with Miami making some power moves and the Jets acquiring Aaron Rodgers, but there was also some internal drama with Stefon Diggs. Furthermore, I did not like how the Bills drafted in April. Dalton Kincaid was a bad pick in the first round when there were other pressing needs, though the O'Cyrus Torrence pick could add some thump to the interior offensive line right away.

In other words, the Bills' vibes are off and I wanted to put some (fake) money behind that take. 

Round 8

The Pick: Texas Tech to win the Big 12 (+1100, $750)

I wanted to take one last stab at the College Football board before attacking NFL in the endgame. The idea behind targeting Texas Tech here was similar to the UCLA pick in that they're a dark horse according to the odds but the plausible upside is there. 

While UCLA was also part of something of a PAC-12 "stack" in this format, though, Texas Tech was my only Big 12 bet. I don't have the added security in this market the way I do with having USC among my PAC-12 ticket, but I also feel better about fading the chalk in the Big 12. 

It's Texas' to lose -- they have the talent and continuity -- but when was the last time the Horns lived up to, let alone exceeded, expectations? 

Beyond the Horns, I give the Red Raiders the second-best chance to take home the hardware. Oklahoma (+380) is suspect to say the least and Kansas State doesn't have another Deuce Vaughn coming in, either. 

The Red Raiders are hell to deal with on offense. They ran 89.2 plays per game last season, nearly a full 10 plays clear of the second-fastest offense (Buffalo) and that tempo isn't going anywhere. If quarterback Tyler Shough can stay healthy  -- a big if, admittedly -- Texas Tech's offense will be enough to put it in position to make it to the title game.

Round 9

The Pick: Lions to win the NFC North (+130; $1250)

With all the optimism surrounding the Lions coming into the season, I was shocked to see this bet last until the 9th round. The Packers are in flux, the Vikings were the biggest overachievers in NFL history in 2022 and the Bears are still the Bears until proven otherwise. +130 is a fine price for a favorite with suspect competition elsewhere in the division. By comparison, the Saints, Bengals and Bills are all favorites with similar odds but I view each of them to have a much tougher hill to climb to take home the division crown.

Round 10

The Pick: John Metchie for Comeback Player of the Year (+2000; $500)

Metchie has a chance to be the best story in the NFL this season. If you're unfamiliar, he tore his ACL in his final collegiate game, which affected his draft stock. Then, he was diagnosed with APL (Acute Promyelocytic Leukemia) just before training camp last season. 

Thankfully, Metchie has since been able to participate in Texans minicamp and coach DeMeco Ryans said in June that "everything is on target. I think [he] will be good to go for training camp." Whether there's a slow ramp-up period throughout training camp or not, there seems to be a strong chance that Metchie plays this season. And if that's the case, he has the talent to be a starter in this receiving corps and thrive. I find Houston to be overlooked as a team that could be scrappy this season (more on that shortly) and Metchie can be a big part of this offense. 

Metchie playing and playing well this season would be an incredible and inspiring story and I think there's a good chance that it happens. 

Round 11

The Pick: Houston Texans OVER 5.5 Wins (-110; $700)

After a few years of having lame-duck head coaches and sacrificial lambs at quarterback, the Texans are showing signs of interest in being a real NFL team again. The DeMeco Ryans hire may prove to be the best of this cycle and I believe he's going to change the culture in Houston right away. Taking C.J. Stroud with the second pick in the draft and then wheeling and dealing to secure the third pick for Will Anderson was a strong statement as well. 

Stroud immediately makes this offense better, and the supporting cast really isn't that bad with the likes of Dameon Pierce, Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz in the mix. It also helps that the Texans have the seventh-easiest schedule according to projected win totals.

There was also some value here on the number because the Texans are sitting at 6.5 wins at multiple sportsbooks, and with win totals in this draft all being -110 on either side, there wasn't any additional juice to pay for needing one fewer win. 

Round 12

The Pick: Nolan Smith, Defensive Rookie of the Year (+2500; $950)

Last pick so I was going to take a big swing here no matter what. No point in leaving money on the table in this draft. My hope going into the last round was to have Doug Peterson (+2000) available for Coach of the Year but that was foiled six picks before I was on the clock, so I had to pivot.

I settled on targeting a player award with big payout potential and Nolan Smith at +2500 satisfied those conditions. I mean, if I was going to start the draft with a homer pick, I might as well end on that note, too. 

Smith was an excellent player during his time at Georgia whose impact was felt well beyond the box score. His leaving Georgia with just 11 career sacks in four seasons seemed to suggest that he might be better as an edge setter than as an edge rusher. However, his ridiculous performance at the combine highlighted by a 4.39 40-yard dash at 238 pounds makes me wonder if a scheme like Philadelphia's can unlock that pass-rush tool. Even if he's just a situational rusher in a deep Eagles front seven, offensive coordinators are going to have so many other players to worry about that Smith could find himself in the lead for sacks among rookies. I don't believe there's a Sauce Gardner-level corner in this rookie class, so targeting an edge rusher on a great defense felt like a worthy dart at the end of the draft.