Football Draft Kit: 2017 Coaching Changes

The impact of offseason coaching changes is typically overlooked in the fantasy realm, where draft picks, free-agent signings and talented second- or third-year players reign supreme when trying to identify commodities with the potential to significantly outperform their draft slots or auction prices.

While there is some validity to the perception coaches don't impact player value as much as a slew of other factors, there are still situations in which the stars align for a player due to the presence of a new head coach and/or offensive coordinator and the scheme he brings along.

Last season's prime example was DeMarco Murray, who bounced back from a miserable 2015 campaign in Chip Kelly's stretch-heavy rushing attack to regain RB1 status in a Mike Mularkey scheme that utilized heavy formations and an abundance of inside runs. Tennessee's interim head coach at the end of the previous season, Mularkey didn't have a reputation as any kind of offensive mastermind, but his scheme was a perfect fit for Murray's north-south running style.

This year's prime candidates to benefit from the offseason coaching carousel include Pierre Garcon, Melvin Gordon, Demaryius Thomas and Zay Jones.

HEAD COACH CHANGES

49ers – Kyle Shanahan

Unable to find a replacement for Chip Kelly while other teams lined up new coaches in January, the 49ers were eventually rewarded for their patience when they landed Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan the day after the Super Bowl. San Francisco also hired a new general manager (John Lynch) and defensive coordinator (Robert Saleh), but the team didn't need to hire a new offensive coordinator because Shanahan will handle the role himself.

Previously a coordinator for the Texans (2008-09), Redskins (2010-13), Browns (2014) and Falcons (2015-16), Shanahan led those teams to top-10 yardage rankings in six of his nine seasons, highlighted by four campaigns ('08-09, '12, '16) among the top five. The year-by-year division of production between his ground and aerial attacks hints at a strong willingness to adjust to his surroundings, though Shanahan does seem to have a general preference for passing … until his team gets close to the goal line.

On average, his offenses rank in the 54th percentile for rush attempts, 53rd percentile for running yards, 62nd percentile for pass attempts and 71st percentile for passing yards – but rushing touchdowns are 64th percentile and passing scores only 49th. There's only been one season (2009) in which his team ranked more than three spots higher for passing touchdowns than it did for rushing touchdowns. Simply put, his preference for passing over running seems to flip near the goal line.

Shanahan's reputation for feeding his top wideout is also worth mentioning, though it largely seems to be a product of the rosters he was handed. Andre Johnson produced two of his three 1,500-yard seasons during Shanahan's two-year tenure (2008-09) in Houston, but Johnson was similarly productive on a per-game basis in 2007, 2010 and 2012.

The other notable WR seasons in Shanahan's system were Santana Moss in 2010 (93-1,115-6), Garcon in 2013 (113-1,346-5) and Julio Jones in 2015 (136-1,871-8). However, Shanahan's offenses in 2011, 2012 and 2014 failed to produce a 1,000-yard receiver or a player with more than 114 targets, though an overall lack of passing volume was partially to blame in 2012 and 2014.

While the narrative about Shanahan's No. 1 wideouts might be overblown, it's no coincidence the 49ers signed Garcon, who averaged 6.0 catches for 76.1 yards on 9.7 targets in his 26 games under Shanahan in Washington. He will turn 31 during training camp but is coming off his second career 1,000-yard season and seems to have somehow found a team willing to give him No. 1 wideout volume.

Shanahan's hiring is less promising for running back Carlos Hyde, who will have to fend off competition for snaps from free-agent addition Tim Hightower and fourth-round rookie Joe Williams. Hyde has been an effective lead runner when healthy, producing 4.3 yards per carry for his career, but he isn't much of a receiver and has missed 14 games in three seasons. Lynch even hinted that Hyde might not be a fit with the new regime, though the 235-pounder is at least still the favorite to get goal-line carries, of which, as noted, there are usually plenty in a Shanahan-led offense.

Beyond Garcon and the backfield, there isn't much fantasy potential in a San Francisco offense likely led by quarterback Brian Hoyer, who previously worked with Shanahan to mixed results for the 2014 Browns. The wideout depth chart is up for grabs behind Garcon, and tight end doesn't look any better. When faced with similarly barren depth charts in the past, Shanahan relied on his No. 1 receiver and a strong running game to lead the way.

Chargers – Anthony Lynn

Plagued by poor injury luck en route to another last-place finish, the Chargers parted ways with head coach Mike McCoy at the end of the 2016 campaign, tabbing Bills offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn as the replacement. Former Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley will take over for John Pagano as defensive coordinator, but Lynn made the unusual decision to retain OC Ken Whisenhunt, whose unit ranked ninth in points and 14th in yards last season despite all the injuries.

Philip Rivers tossed an NFL-high 21 interceptions, but he also had 33 touchdowns and 4,386 passing yards while playing nearly all season without Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead, whose absences thrust Melvin Gordon and Tyrell Williams into leading roles. As a result, the Chargers enter 2017 boasting an impressive stockpile of skill-position talent, with Allen rejoining a receiving corps that also added Mike Williams in the first round of the draft.

It remains to be seen how Lynn, a former running back and long-time running backs coach, will deploy this interesting mix of talent. His love for the running game is a given, but 2016 was his first season as a coordinator, and Buffalo's personnel dictated a run-dominant approach. While it's safe to say Lynch's hiring is good news for Gordon, it shouldn't be assumed the Chargers' new head coach will simply retain his mindset from Buffalo. With Sammy Watkins limited to eight games while Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy and Mike Gillislee were mostly healthy, the 2016 Bills really had no choice but to pound away with a rushing attack that ultimately led the league in yards, yards per carry and touchdowns. Of course, the Bills still only won seven games, and the 2017 Chargers figure to have a more balanced and explosive offense.

Rams – Sean McVay

With Jeff Fisher finally gone, the Rams wisely looked outside their flailing organization after the season, hiring Sean McVay to lead the franchise in a new direction after he impressed in a three-year stint as Washington's offensive coordinator.

McVay became the youngest head coach in NFL history when he was hired at age 30 in Janurary, and he brought in 37-year-old Matt LaFleur as offensive coordinator. A first-time NFL coordinator, LaFleur previously served as Redskins quarterback coach from 2010 to 2013 while McVay was the team's tight ends coach. LaFleur then held the same role for Notre Dame (2014) and the Falcons (2015-16), notably working with Shanahan and Matt Ryan the last two years.

McVay will call the plays, hoping to develop Jared Goff in the same way he got the most out of Kirk Cousins in Washington. While the Redskins' pass-heavy system was largely dictated by personnel, McVay's hiring is still better news for Goff than for franchise running back Todd Gurley. Not that McVay will ignore his best offensive player, but don't expect the Rams to stay stuck in the 20th century with an offensive scheme that tries to batter opponents to death. McVay's offenses in Washington ranked 11th in passing yards in both 2014 and 2015 and second last year, while finishing 19th to 21st in rushing yards each season.

McVay did, however, seem to take a page out of Shanahan's playbook at the goal line, with his offenses finishing in the top 10 for rushing touchdowns twice in three seasons. Gurley should have plenty of opportunities when the Rams approach the end zone, though it's fair to question how often they'll do so if the offense is dependent upon Goff and his receivers.

After losing Kenny Britt, the Rams signed possession receiver Robert Woods, and then drafted wideouts Cooper Kupp in the third round (No. 69 overall) and Josh Reynolds in the fourth (No. 117). With that trio joining Tavon Austin, it appears Goff will spread the ball around without the benefit of a true No. 1 target. Such an approach should be supported by McVay, whose offenses in Washington didn't produce any individual seasons with more than 114 targets.

The Los Angeles tight ends should eventually benefit from McVay's system, which propelled Jordan Reed to elite status whenever he was healthy the last three years. 2016 fourth-round selection Tyler Higbee and 2017 second-rounder Gerald Everett still need to develop and likely will share targets, but one could emerge as soon as this season.

Bills – Sean McDermott

The Bills replaced Rex Ryan with another defensive mind when they hired Sean McDermott away from Carolina, where he spent the last six seasons as defensive coordinator, after handling the same role in Philadelphia for two years.

McDermott quickly tabbed Rick Dennison to replace Lynn as offensive coordinator, opting for an experienced coach who filled the same position in Denver (2006-08, 2015-16) and Houston (2010-2013) under zone-blocking aficionados Mike Shanahan and Gary Kubiak. Per Pro Football Focus, the Bills led the NFL in yards before contact per carry on zone rushing plays last season under Lynn's direction, successfully transitioning from the man-blocking/power scheme deployed by Greg Roman in 2015 and the first two weeks of 2016.

Dennison's presence will allow LeSean McCoy to continue playing to his strengths, making the most of his exceptional vision and cutting ability to exploit any lapses in defensive gap responsibility. While it's perhaps a bit concerning that Dennison's offenses struggled to both run and pass the last two seasons, Kubiak was actually the one calling plays, and Denver's lack of talent was the main culprit, with the offense undermanned at every position besides wideout. Dennison also struggled in 2013 with a miserable Texans team, but he posted top-12 finishes in rushing yards in each of his first six seasons as a coordinator.

Dennison-directed passing games haven't been nearly as impressive, though he did coax reasonably efficient seasons out of a young Jay Cutler and late-20s/early-30s Matt Schaub. And while he's never directed an offense with a fleet-footed quarterback of Tyrod Taylor's caliber, Dennison worked directly with Taylor in 2014 while serving as Baltimore's quarterbacks coach.

All in all, Dennison shapes up as a solid but unspectacular hire, likely to deploy a system heavy on zone running plays, play-action bootlegs and three-step drops – which seems to mesh with the skill sets of Taylor and McCoy. The oft-injured Sammy Watkins might find this hiring less to his liking, as Dennison's system has historically favored big-bodied receivers like Andre Johnson and Brandon Marshall. Dennison surely will find a way to get Watkins some deep looks and plenty of screens, but the fourth-year wideout might be a bit out of his comfort zone at first.

On the other hand, second-round rookie Zay Jones should be a natural fit in an offense reliant on short passes, coming off a senior season in which he caught 158 balls for 1,746 yards and eight touchdowns. The all-time FBS receptions leader put up surprisingly strong marks at the Combine for a possession receiver, running a 4.45 40 at 6-foot-2, 201, and also ranking among the top receivers in the broad jump and shuttle drills. While viewed by some on draft day as a reach at No. 37 overall, Jones seems to make a lot of sense for Dennison's scheme.

Broncos – Vance Joseph

Unlike Denver's last two head coach hires, Kubiak and John Fox, the incoming Vance Joseph doesn't boast an extensive track record in leading roles, having spent last season as Miami's defensive coordinator after working as a defensive backs coach the previous 10 seasons for three teams.

Joseph has a strong reputation around the league and was a candidate for previous head coaching jobs – including Denver's in 2015 – despite his lack of experience as a coordinator. His first major move on the job was a good one, tabbing Mike McCoy to reprise his old role as offensive coordinator. McCoy held the position in Denver from 2009 to 2012, eventually parlaying his success into a new gig as San Diego's head coach from 2013 to 2016.

His Chargers squads largely were undone by injuries and poor defense, which put constant pressure on Rivers to keep the team competitive. Although it's important to keep that context in mind, McCoy still exhibited a clear preference for throwing the ball, with his San Diego teams, on average, falling in the 62nd percentile for pass attempts, 83rd for passing yards and 80th for passing touchdowns – compared to 46th for rush attempts, 25th for rushing yards and 19th for rushing scores.

Looking at his four-year stint in Denver, McCoy mostly displayed the same strong preference for passing over running, though the overall numbers are actually pretty balanced due to the outlier 2011 "Tebow season" in which the Broncos led the league in rushes and finished last in pass attempts.

In terms of individual production, McCoy's strong work with quarterbacks stands out, and while that's unsurprisingly led to some big seasons for wide receivers and tight ends, there isn't any clear trend in terms of feeding targets to specific players/roles. His teams peppered their top receiver with targets when there wasn't much else on the roster, but looks were spread pretty evenly on squads with more depth. This willingness to adapt to his personnel is in keeping with McCoy's general reputation as one of the league's better offensive minds.

The Broncos' offense thus figures to once again run through Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, as the team doesn't have proven weapons in the backfield or at tight end. The efficacy of such an approach remains to be seen, as McCoy may need to work some magic just to get the offense back to mediocrity with Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch at quarterback. McCoy got solid play out of Kyle Orton, who had a lot in common with Siemian, in 2009 and 2010. Expectations for the running backs should be modest, as Gordon's 2016 campaign was the first RB1 season produced in a McCoy-directed offense – and it likely never would've happened if Danny Woodhead had been healthy.

Jaguars – Doug Marrone

The Jaguars stuck with Doug Marrone, who finished the 2016 season as interim head coach after Gus Bradley was fired in Week 16. The team also retained offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who took over when Greg Olson was fired in Week 9. Hackett has worked under Marrone since 2010 when both were at Syracuse University, with the duo's most notable stint coming as head coach and offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills in 2013 and 2014.

Marrone figures to delegate play-calling duties, as the Jacksonville running game came to life after Hackett was promoted last season, improving from 72.6 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry under Olson to 124.8 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry under Hackett.

The aerial attack remained stagnant, but Jacksonville's offseason moves – namely drafting Leonard Fournette and adding two fullbacks – suggest the team will try to overcome Blake Bortles' shortcomings with an old-school approach focused on the running game and defense.

Marrone and Hackett took a similar approach in Buffalo, where they were unable to develop 2013 first-round selection EJ Manuel into a competent starting quarterback. While often criticized for that perceived failure, in addition to a generally conservative approach on offense, Marrone and Hackett won seven of the 12 games Orton started in 2014, with the veteran completing 64.2 percent of his passes and throwing for 251.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game.

Marrone's stint as Saints offensive coordinator from 2006 to 2008 is also noteworthy, as he helped those Drew Brees-led offenses lead the league in total yards twice. Marrone isn't afraid to air it out when he has the proper personnel, but that doesn't seem like it will be his approach in Jacksonville.

With Julius Thomas traded and only replaced by middling veteran Mychal Rivera, a good portion of the 126 targets that went to Jacksonville tight ends last season figure to be redistributed as rush attempts or wideout targets. Marrone and Hackett likely will hone in on Fournette, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee, cutting the targets and touches given to marginal talents. The big question, of course, is whether Bortles and the talent-laden defense will play well enough for this sensible approach to actually stand.

COORDINATOR CHANGES

Falcons – Steve Sarkisian

Faced with replacing the architect of an offense that produced the eighth-best single-season points total (540) in NFL history, the Falcons surprisingly decided to hire Steve Sarkisian, whose only pro experience came in 2004 as quarterbacks coach for the Raiders.

An experienced NFL coordinator seemingly would've made sense for a team that intends to retain much of Shanahan's system, but the Falcons are confident Sarkisian will have a light touch and retain the core of what the team did last year. He looks like a strong fit, as his love for the no-huddle should mesh well with Ryan's proficiency in that department. And while his college offenses typically utilized power concepts in the running game in conjunction with a spread aerial attack, Sarkisian presumably won't depart much from Shanahan's scheme based around zone runs and play-action passes.

While some regression can all but be assumed, Sarkisian should at least be competent enough to keep this offense among the NFL's elite. His hiring is better news for Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman than for Ryan and

Julio Jones, as Sarkisian's offenses at USC and Washington never had a run rate below 49 percent in any season from 2007 to 2014. His teams produced a 1,400-yard rusher each year from 2010 to 2014, with Chris Polk (2011), Bishop Sankey (2013) and Javorius Allen (2014) also producing seasons of at least 300 receiving yards on top of the gaudy rushing stats.

Jets – John Morton

Chan Gailey retired at the end of 2016 after a two-year run as Jets offensive coordinator, with the first season a huge success and the second a clear disaster. His scheme was notable, especially during his time in New York, for the complete absence of targets directed to tight ends.

John Morton, who spent the last two seasons as Saints' receivers coach, will take over as a first-time NFL offensive coordinator. He served as USC's coordinator in 2009-10, promoted after Sarkisian left for Washington. That '09 USC squad was a disappointment, starting the season ranked No. 4 but ultimately finishing ranked 22nd while failing to make a BCS bowl for the first time since 2001.

Given his lack of experience as an NFL play-caller, it's difficult to draw any real conclusions about what we can expect from Morton, an unexciting hire who inherits an undermanned offense. Such a situation typically would dictate giving the coordinator a couple years to work things out, but with head coach Todd Bowles no lock to make it to 2018, it's quite possible Morton will have to earn another season. Difficult though it may be to assess the impact of this hiring, there's little reason to believe Morton can drag the Jets offense back to competence.

Redskins – Matt Cavanaugh

With McVay departing for Los Angeles after an impressive three-year stint as offensive coordinator, the Redskins promoted quarterbacks coach Matt Cavanaugh, who last held a coordinator job in the NFL with the Ravens from 1999 to 2004. He also served as Chicago's offensive coordinator in 1997 and 1998, and he held the same position at Pitt from 2005 to 2008, before spending the last eight seasons as quarterbacks coach for three NFL franchises.

While not an exciting hire, Cavanaugh makes sense due to his familiarity with the offense and his strong work with Cousins the last two seasons. Head coach Jay Gruden already said he'll handle play-calling duties for the first time since 2014, which mitigates any concerns regarding Cavanaugh's shaky track record in that department. His offenses in Chicago and Baltimore never ranked higher than 14th in total yards or 16th in passing yards, though he directed prolific rushing attacks in 2000 and 2003 when Jamal Lewis was at his best in Baltimore.

While the switch from McVay to Cavanaugh is a downgrade, Gruden provides stability for an offense that figures to look much the same schematically, albeit with Terrelle Pryor and Josh Doctson replacing Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson out wide.

Raiders – Todd Downing

Oakland didn't extend a new contract to well-traveled offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, instead promoting 36-year-old quarterbacks coach Todd Downing. The team ranked sixth in yards and seventh in points last season, but head coach Jack Del Rio publicly hinted at displeasure with Musgrave on multiple occasions, mostly in relation to his use (or lack thereof) of Latavius Murray.

Downing doesn't have any coordinator experience, but he does have six seasons as a QB coach in the NFL under his belt, and his recent work alongside Derek Carr was surely drawing attention from other organizations with coordinator vacancies.

While the switch from Musgrave to Downing shouldn't have much impact on Oakland's still-ascending offense, it's safe to say the new offensive coordinator will turn to Marshawn Lynch in late-game situations if he intends to keep his job. Oakland's lead quartet of Carr, Lynch, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree – along with an elite offensive line – should make it easy for Downing to iron out any growing pains.

This article appears in the 2017 RotoWire Fantasy Football magazine. Order the magazine now.