Football Draft Kit: 2016 Breakout Players

The term "breakout" is thrown around often, usually referring to a player who performs at a level far beyond his established level. Given the frequency of injuries in the NFL, there are inevitably dozens of skill-positions players each season who post career-high numbers, including at least one or two who leap almost directly from semi-obscurity to superstardom. Most of these players still won't be useful in fantasy leagues, because while a 30-400-2 receiving line might represent great progress from some team's No. 4 wideout, it's still not enough to warrant roster consideration outside of extremely deep formats.

Rags-to-riches superstars are actually more rare than one might think, but there are always plenty of players who make the jump from last year's waiver-wire fodder to this year's solid starter, or from WR3 to WR1.

When discussing breakout players, we aren't looking for guys with a good chance to improve by a little bit; we're looking for players who have a decent chance to improve by a whole lot. Any list of this sort will inevitably be dominated by young names, as history (not to mention common sense) leaves little doubt that NFL players tend to improve most within their first 2-3 years.

Of course, it isn't unheard of for players to break out in their mid-to-late 20s or even early 30s – typically because of increased opportunity or a new team context, as opposed to any significant change in talent. The most notable examples last year were Doug Baldwin, Gary Barnidge, Delanie Walker and Ben Watson – all established as solid NFL players but not superstars, and all of whom set career highs in targets.

Still, the majority of big climbers from 2014 to 2015 were second- or third-year players, led by Allen Robinson, Devonta Freeman, Brandin Cooks, Allen Hurns, Blake Bortles, Tyler Eifert and Jordan Reed – basically, the guys who won people leagues.

Bortles, Freeman and perhaps Hurns caught many by surprise, but the other aforementioned youngsters were popular choices on these types of lists last summer ... yet still vastly outperformed their sometimes-lofty draft slots. Yes, the NFL is an unpredictable league on the whole, but no matter how many seasons we go back, the majority of "breakout" players are high-pedigree players in the first few seasons of their careers.

These players don't usually fly under the radar in the fantasy world, but they're still the best bets to outperform their average draft position (ADP) by a large margin, though certainly not without risk. Many of the lists touting Robinson and Cooks also recommended Davante Adams and Carlos Hyde – both of whom were typically selected with early-to-mid round picks, yet did little.

We do have some criteria for the breakout list, omitting rookies and any other players who have barely seen an NFL field. This includes players like Kevin White, who missed all last season with an injury after going in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft. While worthy draft targets with major upside, they can't truly be called "breakout players," having yet to establish any sort of baseline production as professionals.

Other notable omissions include TE Zach Ertz, who already "broke out" for 35-450-1 over the final four weeks of last season, along with Thomas Rawls, who performed as a high-end RB1 across his seven starts. The main concern regarding Rawls is his recovery from a nasty ankle injury, and Ertz has already established a new baseline that goes beyond his season-long stats. Neither player is likely to eclipse his value at its highest point from last season, as both were top options at their respective positions for a portion of the year.

QUARTERBACK

Marcus Mariota, Titans

The second pick in last year's draft, Mariota acquitted himself well in 12 appearances last season, completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 7.6 yards per attempt and 235 yards per game, with 19 touchdowns, 10 picks, 252 rushing yards (on just 34 carries) and a pair of rushing scores. He was a respectable 17th in per-game standard scoring (17.5 fantasy points) among QBs who started multiple games, despite attempting just six passes in Week 15 before exiting with a season-ending knee sprain. If that game were taken out of the equation, he'd have finished eighth among QBs at 19.2 fantasy points per game.
Mariota did all that behind a poor offensive line, with no running game whatsoever and no reliable targets besides Delanie Walker.

In addition to bringing back a (hopefully) healthy Kendall Wright and a more experienced Dorial Green-Beckham, the Titans traded for DeMarco Murray, signed WR Rishard Matthews and C Ben Jones and drafted OT Jack Conklin (8th overall) and RB Derrick Henry (45th). There are a lot of moving pieces and no shortage of questions, but even a mediocre supporting cast would be a huge improvement.

Just as important, Mariota likely will put his 4.51 speed to use more often, as last season's caution may have been related to the combination of his knee injuries and the team's non-existent playoff hopes. There is some concern the Titans will go run-heavy with Murray and Henry, but such a strategy largely relies on defensive improvement that may not happen, following an offseason in which the team mostly addressed its offense. Mariota might just need a slight uptick in volume to become a weekly QB1, which is more than can be said for a number of signal callers who will be regularly drafted ahead of him. He'll likely be drafted as a backup in many leagues, and thus makes for a nice high-upside option to pair with a safe, mid-round veteran like Philip Rivers or Eli Manning.

RUNNING BACK

Carlos Hyde, 49ers

A classic example of a post-hype sleeper, Hyde was widely touted as a potential breakout player ahead of last season, holding a second-round pedigree (2014) and strong college track record, along with a clear path to the starting job after Frank Gore left for Indianapolis. The hype initially appeared justified when Hyde dismantled the Vikings in a 168-yard, two-TD Week 1 performance that was just as impressive as the stat line suggests. But he subsequently found himself on the wrong side of some blowouts, missed part of a game after taking a hard hit and then finally played with a stress fracture in his foot for a few weeks. He was held out entirely after Week 7, ultimately landing on IR and undergoing surgery on the fracture. Despite being visibly bothered by his foot in his last two outings, Hyde finished the year with 115 carries for 470 yards (4.1 YPC) and three touchdowns, adding 11 catches for 53 yards in seven games.

Cleared from the injury in April, the 6-foot Hyde slimmed down from 232 pounds to 225, presumably acknowledging the importance of endurance in new head coach Chip Kelly's fast-paced attack. Kelly loves to run the ball, often even when playing from behind, and his presence should ensure that the 49ers rank near the top of the league in snaps per game. The scheme and Hyde's running ability both check out, but the lack of talent around him is once again a huge cause for concern – though it does also mean he won't have tough competition for carries.

If the 49ers were to merely piece together a halfway-respectable offense, Hyde likely would be the one leading the charge, potentially with 20 touches per game and heavy red-zone usage. As one of the few running backs who figures to enter Week 1 as his offense's centerpiece, Hyde has a shot to vastly outperform expectations, even though he's risky and is to likely come at a similar price to last season's ADP around the third-fifth rounds. But the breakout could be huge.

Karlos Williams, Bills

Williams finished 19th in per-game standard scoring (10.3 fantasy points) as a fifth-round rookie last season, turning his 93 carries into 517 yards (5.6 YPC) and seven touchdowns, with 11 catches for 93 yards and another two scores in 11 games. He's again slated to work behind LeSean McCoy, who was effective last season but also missed four games. After falling just shy of 20 touches per game (19.6) for what would have been a fifth straight season, 28-year-old McCoy is still the clear lead back when healthy, but Williams could become a legitimate fantasy superstar if his veteran teammate misses a long stretch.

Buffalo led the NFL in both rushing yards (2,432) and YPC (4.8) last season, thanks to the deadly combination of a strong offensive line, impressive running back group and Tyrod Taylor's rushing skills. It's also noteworthy that Williams sometimes served in a three-down role when McCoy was absent, which suggests he could be more of a pass-catching threat than last year's reception total (11 on 13 targets) would seem to indicate. Williams did pad his numbers with some long scoring runs in relief of McCoy during garbage time, but he was also productive in the pair of games for which he was healthy and McCoy wasn't, running 35 times for 116 yards and a touchdown, with five catches for 51 yards and another score. Although probably most valuable to McCoy owners, Williams is well worth drafting on his own merit, even if he's likely to start the season on your bench.

Jerick McKinnon, Vikings

The elephant in the room is a future Hall of Famer, with McKinnon slated for a second consecutive season working as the change-of-pace/third-down complement to Adrian Peterson, fresh off 1,485 rush yards and 11 touchdowns. The breakout potential isn't a knock on Peterson, but rather a commentary on McKinnon's immense potential in the event his 31-year-old teammate were to suffer an injury.

A former college quarterback who tore up the 2014 combine and was drafted in the third round, McKinnon has 809 yards on 165 career carries (4.9 YPC), albeit with only two rushing scores and poor efficiency numbers as a receiver (4.4 YPT on 70 targets). Still, the Vikings often preferred him to Peterson for passing downs last season, particularly late in the year.

Given that his value largely depends on an injury to a traditionally durable (but aging) player, McKinnon will likely be undrafted in most leagues with 10 or fewer teams and can probably be sniped from Peterson's owner late in 12 or 14-teamers.

WIDE RECEIVER

Donte Moncrief, Colts

A 2014 third-round draft pick with 4.4 speed in a 6-2, 220-pound frame, Moncrief was seemingly headed for a breakout early last season, going 17-200-3 on 26 targets through the first three weeks. Andrew Luck then suffered an injury and ended up playing just seven, mostly ineffective, games all year, leaving Moncrief on a team with plenty of receiving options but nobody capable of getting the ball downfield. Making matters worse, he played with an injured toe the final three weeks, ultimately riding a slow finish to a disappointing 64-733-6 receiving line (105 targets), and then having surgery in the offseason.

With Andre Johnson (77 targets) and Coby Fleener (85 targets) both gone and no replacements brought in, there should be plenty of looks available for Moncrief, T.Y. Hilton, Phillip Dorsett and TE Dwayne Allen, playing in an offense that has averaged 623 pass attempts per season since Luck was drafted. Rather than adding unneeded skill-position players again, the Colts wisely devoted four draft picks, including a first-rounder, to their much-maligned O-Line.

It all bodes well for Moncrief to top last season's 105 targets as he enters his third NFL season in what could be a powerful offense. Just make sure to keep tabs on the foot injury, which might affect his training camp routine.

Tyler Lockett, Seahawks

An instant sensation as a third-round rookie, Lockett followed his spectacular preseason by leading the NFL in total return yards (1,231) and scoring a pair of special teams touchdowns. More important, he was efficient with his limited receiving opportunities, catching 51 of 68 targets (75 percent) for 664 yards (9.8 YPT) and six touchdowns, with his production spiking late in the season after Jimmy Graham suffered a torn patellar tendon. Although largely overshadowed by Doug Baldwin, and mostly quiet in the playoffs, Lockett averaged 4.6 catches for 63.6 yards on 6.4 targets with Graham out the final five games of the regular season.

It was a rookie-year breakout in a real-life sense, but Lockett was never more than a borderline WR3 option in the majority of leagues, and he disappeared for 3-33-0 in fantasy championship week. He has the talent and opportunity to enjoy a much more consistent 2016, particularly if Graham and/or Thomas Rawls (ankle) is absent and/or ineffective in the wake of major season-ending injuries. The quick-strike passing game the Seahawks turned to late in the year to relieve pressure on Russell Wilson should continue to give Lockett increased opportunities this year, and with 4.40 40 speed, he's the team's deep threat.

Dorial Green-Beckham, Titans

Green-Beckham's rookie season was mostly quiet and far from consistent, yet not at all discouraging for a raw, uber-talented prospect who spent the previous year redshirting on the scout team at the University of Oklahoma. The 6-5, 225-pound second-rounder with 4.49 speed was eased into Tennessee's struggling offense, drawing just 14 targets through the first seven games. His involvement was more consistent later in the season when he had at least five targets in six of his last seven games, including a pair of 100-yard performances. He also happened to fare much better when Marcus Mariota started, catching three passes for 33 yards (on 10 targets) in the four games his fellow rookie missed.

The Titans do have more options on offense this season, but DGB still has a clear path to a starting job and regular red-zone looks, with his team's other main wideouts – Rishard Matthews, Kendall Wright and maybe Harry Douglas – all 6-foot or shorter. More than anything, Green-Beckham's potential breakout will depend on the biggest unknown – whether he's actually a good player. He can clearly break tackles and make difficult contested catches, but recent NFL history is littered with hyped, big-bodied receivers who never panned out because they couldn't separate from man coverage on short and immediate routes. Guys like Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas and Julio Jones are the exception, not the rule, and Green-Beckham still needs to prove he's not a one-trick pony. Of course, if he does pan out, it could be in a very big way.

Chris Hogan, Patriots

A college lacrosse star, Hogan took an odd path to the NFL, using his final season (2011) of collegiate eligibility to play football at FCS Monmouth, where he mostly played cornerback and caught just 12 passes. He wasn't truly on the NFL radar until he ran a 4.47 40-yard dash at his pro day, checking in around 6-1, 220, with strong numbers in the other drills. Still undrafted, Hogan bounced around on practice squads with the Giants, Dolphins and Bills, eventually landing on Buffalo's active roster at the beginning of 2013.

Hogan was mostly a special-teamer his first season, catching 10 passes in 16 games, but he then had a sizable role on offense in both 2014 and 2015, posting receiving lines of 41-426-4 and 36-450-2, respectively, while again playing 16 games each year. He often worked as a slot receiver, but has the necessary size, strength and speed to play outside, which he also did at times.

Given his versatility and untapped potential, the 27-year-old Hogan was an ideal offseason target for the Patriots, who overcame his restricted free-agent status by front-loading a three-year, $12 million offer, making it difficult for a cap-challenged Bills team that wants to emphasize the run game to respond.

Hogan thus joins a prolific passing attack, playing with an all-time great quarterback who topped 600 attempts in four of the last five seasons. He might threaten Danny Amendola's snaps in the slot and could also challenge for a starting job outside across from Julian Edelman. The competition appears far from fierce, led by 32-year-old Nate Washington, fourth-round rookie Malcolm Mitchell and 2013 second-round bust Aaron Dobson.

Jeff Janis, Packers

Coming out of DII Saginaw Valley State, Janis lasted until the final round of the 2014 draft, despite running a 4.42 40 at 6-3, 219, at the Combine, supplemented by top-5 marks for his position in the three-cone drill and bench press. Mostly a gameday inactive as a rookie, Janis earned a key role on special teams (sometimes even returning kicks) last year – but even with Jordy Nelson missing the whole season and third-round rookie Ty Montgomery playing just six games, Janis finished the regular season with two catches.

Then came a divisional playoff game against the Cardinals, when the Packers didn't have Davante Adams nor Randall Cobb and finally had to give Janis regular snaps. He responded with 7-145-2 receiving in one of the most exciting games in NFL history, highlighted by a 60-yard catch on 4th-and-20, followed by a 41-yard Hail Mary to tie the game (Yes, he had 101 yards on one drive).

With Adams missing his own possible breakout season amidst a flurry of drops and ankle issues, Janis and Montgomery (and maybe even Jared Abbrederis) should have a shot to push the incumbent for a regular spot alongside Nelson and Cobb in three-wide sets. Adams does have some post-hype sleeper appeal, and Montgomery is entering his second season, but neither has the kind of upside that comes with Janis' rare size-speed combination.

Given that his wide range of outcomes includes another year spent primarily on special teams, Janis should be available in the final few rounds of most drafts. And even if he only has a backup role to start the season, he'll be just an injury or two away from getting regular snaps in an Aaron Rodgers offense.

TIGHT END

Ladarius Green, Steelers

Ah yes, Ladarius Green again, only this time in black and yellow, with Antonio Gates nowhere to be seen. Still only 26, Green spent his four seasons in Gates' Hall-of-Fame shadow, yet was often hyped as a potential star in the making. Listed at 6-6, 240, the 2012 fourth-round selection is on the slender side for his position, profiling as more of an oversized slot receiver (4.53 40 time).

However, he still proved to be a capable blocker for the Chargers, which likely factored heavily into Pittsburgh's willingness to give him a four-year, $20 million contract, even though he has just 77 catches and seven TDs through 47 career games. Green is thus positioned to consistently play the vast majority of his team's offensive snaps for the first time in his career, as Heath Miller's retirement leaves Pittsburgh thin at tight end.

And it turns out, Green may be even more important than originally expected, with Martavis Bryant and his 8.4 targets per game suspended for the entire season. Some combination of Green, Markus Wheaton and Sammie Coates will need to step up alongside Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell in what should be a high-scoring offense.

Zach Miller, Bears

A college quarterback and 2009 sixth-round draft pick, Miller showed some promise as the Jaguars' No. 2 tight end his first two seasons but then suffered a long list of injuries and didn't play in a single regular-season game from 2012 to 2014. He was quietly one of the better stories of the 2015 campaign, finally staying healthy for long enough to earn the No. 2 spot on the Bears' depth chart – and even getting some extra snaps as an H-back/fullback. After three receptions in seven games, Miller was shockingly productive from Weeks 9-12, catching 12 passes for 187 yards and four touchdowns, even as starter Martellus Bennett also played in three of the four games. Bennett later sat out the final four weeks, allowing Miller to catch 18 passes for 211 yards and a touchdown on 20 targets in three games, before missing Week 17 with a toe injury.

The Bears responded by signing Miller to a two-year, $5.5. million contract, then traded Bennett to the Patriots for a sixth-round pick just a few days later, leaving the oft-injured 31-year-old as the unquestioned starter. He doesn't have serious competition for snaps and seems to have earned Jay Cutler's trust, but Miller will turn 32 in October and couldn't even stay healthy in what should have been his prime. There's also the issue of competing for targets against a promising wideout group, though Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White and Eddie Royal aren't without injury concerns of their own, combining for 18 games last season.

There should be more to go around this year, as last season's unusual number of injuries likely contributed to the Bears ranking 25th in both pass-play percentage (54.3) and pass attempts (523). Furthermore, the team finally said goodbye to Matt Forte, who accounted for 218 carries and 58 targets, despite missing three games and eventually sharing snaps with Jeremy Langford.

This article appears in the 2016 RotoWire Fantasy Football magazine. Order the magazine.