This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.
Fantasy seasons aren't won or lost in the first week ... typically. Of course, since landing a playoff spot in competitive leagues can and does sometimes come down to a few points swung one way or the other because of a single start/sit decision, every matchup and every choice matters. Even in Week 1.
I'll focus on a handful of players every week this year at each major offensive position (don't expect to read about kickers) to provide some perspective on who is at an advantage or disadvantage based on matchups, accounting for all factors - whether it's defensive challenges, shootout probabilities, key injuries, location, weather, etc. With coaching changes, scheme changes and personnel changes all over the league, obviously Week 1 is the trickiest to gauge.
My goal for the season is simple, though: to arm you with a sense of clarity for some of those tougher decisions. Some "no-brainer" starters are not always no-brainers, even if the odds dictate you start them anyway. That's why I'm not considering this a strict "Start 'em, Sit 'em" piece. You're obviously not about to bench Aaron Rodgers despite the fact he has to open in Seattle with an untested rookie center. However, that is a cause to downgrade him and temper your expectations. What that can mean is that perhaps you take a greater risk/reward shot with another starting position, like rolling out a Golden Tate or Justin Hunter because of their ability to make big plays and possibly hit a home run; even if they're equally likely to provide you a flat statline. So rather than "start" and "sit," I'm giving you my "upgrade" and "downgrade" plays for Week 1, which will hopefully make those coin-flip calls easier. The upgrades are players that aren't necessarily weekly starters who are set up to go off and the downgrades players you're usually not benching but for whom you may want to consider replacements - except, of course, Rodgers and his fellow elite.
With that prelude out of the way, let's kick off the 2014 season with some tasty matchups.
UPGRADE
Quarterback
Colin Kaepernick, SF at DAL
Dallas' defense was embarrassing last season, and that was with DeMarcus Ware and Sean Lee (IR/knee). This no-name unit isn't likely to improve from the group that allowed an average of 287 passing yards per game and gave up 33 touchdowns through the air in 2013. Despite an ugly preseason, Kaepernick should look sharp.
Shaun Hill, STL vs. MIN
The Vikings allowed a league-high 37 passing scores last year and were 31st in yards allowed (287 per game). The additions of defensive-minded head coach Mike Zimmer and some secondary changes should cover the blemishes, but Hill is a savvy vet who will still take advantage utilizing an athletic and underrated receiving corps.
Chad Henne, JAC at PHI
Henne is a safe start in two-quarterback leagues for Week 1. The Jaguars defense will make strides this year but will struggle to slow down the Eagles' up-tempo attack. With upgraded weapons at his disposal Henne should produce by sheer volume when Jacksonville plays catch-up.
Running Back
Frank Gore, SF at DAL
First up to draw the least talented defense in football, Gore vaults up to RB1 status for what could be a Week 1 drubbing of the Cowboys, even though he figures to bleed a few touches to Carlos Hyde in the process.
C.J. Spiller/Fred Jackson, BUF at CHI
Spiller and Jackson will split carries against a defense that allowed a dreadful 161.4 yards per game on the ground last year at a 5.3 YPC clip. While Chicago made upgrades to its defensive line on paper, those still won't prevent it from being drilled by a Bills tandem that represented the bulk of Buffalo's league-leading 546 carries in 2013.
Mark Ingram, NO at ATL
The Falcons were 31st in run defense in 2013 and did little to upgrade their front seven. If anything, losing Sean Weatherspoon to an Achilles' injury may even make them more vulnerable. Ingram ran like a man possessed in the preseason (7.8 YPC) and should serve as a quality flex after earning the right to early down work in Week 1.
Wide Receiver
Emmanuel Sanders, DEN vs. IND
The Colts will have their hands full in a big way with Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Montee Ball. Sanders looked awfully chummy with Peyton Manning in the preseason, and with Wes Welker suspended, the jitterbug quickness of Sanders will be on primetime display whether he's lining up in the slot or out wide.
Anquan Boldin, SF at DAL
Michael Crabtree will get his, but he'll also get more attention from the defense. Meanwhile, Boldin will get open consistently against a Dallas unit that finished 30th against the pass last year and has been riding an ambulance straight into a fantasy goldmine.
Golden Tate, DET vs. NYG
In two preseason games of extended action with Matthew Stafford the Lions' new toy caught seven for 77 and a score. He has a strong Monday Night Football history (206 yards and four touchdowns last three appearances), and with Calvin Johnson giving Tate one-on-ones he could be in a playmaker's paradise.
Tight End
Antonio Gates & Ladarius Green, SD at AZ
Keenan Allen could be in for a long night of being draped by Patrick Peterson. That will leave targets to go elsewhere, and facing a defense that was bottom of the barrel versus tight ends in 2013 and replaced two stud inside linebackers with the aging Larry Foote and inexperienced Kevin Minter, both Gates and Green should shine.
Martellus Bennett, CHI vs. BUF
A mammoth red-zone target, Bennett snatched three of his five touchdowns in 2013 in the first two weeks of the season. While that means little to a new year, he will have the benefit of Buffalo being minus the athletic, instinctual play of Kiko Alonso. While the defense is focused on Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery on the outside, Bennett may own the middle of the field.
DOWNGRADE
Quarterback
Tony Romo, DAL vs. SF
Sure, Dallas has one of football's best offensive lines and a trio of pass catchers that should be prolific. DeMarco Murray helps an awful lot too. What doesn't, though, is how much the Cowboys will struggle to possess the ball against a tough defense when Dallas' cannot keep San Fran's offense off the field. In a game of opportunity, Romo's may be light this week even with the Niners missing Navarro Bowman (knee), Aldon Smith (suspension) and Glenn Dorsey (biceps).
Aaron Rodgers, GB at SEA
Is he capable of a huge week? Of course. Are you benching him? That's hysterical. But expectations should be tempered. A top-five performance will be tough to come by in the deafening CenturyLink Field with a rookie center who didn't snap to Rodgers in a single preseason game.
Ryan Tannehill, MIA vs. NE
Bill Belichick. Darrelle Revis. Chandler Jones. Vince Wilfork. Jerod Mayo. We could go on, but why bother? The impact of Bill Lazor's new offense in Miami may not get displayed in Week 1.
Cam Newton, CAR at TB
Does this one really even require explanation? Newton has a rib injury that will limit him and likely keep him from running, a brand new receiving corps headlined by a rookie and is staring in the face of a Lovie Smith defense loaded with talent.
Running back
DeMarco Murray, DAL vs. SF
See Romo, Tony. As talented as Murray is, he still needs the football and a relatively close scoreboard to match his skill with production.
Maurice Jones-Drew/Darren McFadden, OAK at NYJ
The beastly Jets defensive line led the way in allowing a league-low 3.4 YPC and just 88 rushing yards per game last season. With rookie David Carr under center for the Raiders, Rex Ryan likely won't be respecting the pass when Oakland visits the east coast. Translation: massive downgrade.
Doug Martin, TB vs. CAR
The No. 2 run defense in 2013, Carolina held offenses to only 87 yards per game on the ground, while finishing tied with Seattle for the fewest rushing scores allowed at four. He'll be a bellcow, but Martin may struggle against an elite front seven as the passing game adjusts to a new quarterback and system.
Wide Receiver
Jordy Nelson, GB at SEA
Nelson has the physical ability to beat any coverage, and of course Rodgers has the skill to get him the ball in tight windows. By no means will Richard Sherman shut out Nelson, but for a wideout with top-five upside, this figures to be one of his worst outings.
Mike Wallace, MIA vs. NE
Revis is back in the division. Uh oh.
Keenan Allen, SD at AZ
Peterson is the real deal and Allen has to go to his house in primetime. Allen has WR1 upside this season as the only threatening wideout in Rivers' stable, but he's in a similar boat to Nelson this week.
Tight End
Kyle Rudolph, MIN at STL
In Norv Turner's offense big things are expected of Rudolph. Turner always involves his tight ends heavily and Rudolph's true ability has yet to be unearthed. Unfortunately for the 6-foot-6, 259-pounder he draws a Rams defense that was tops in slowing tight ends in 2013 (5.7 points per game) in large part due to the athleticism of linebackers James Laurinaitis and Alec Ogletree.
Jordan Cameron, CLE at PIT
With Troy Polamalu, Ryan Shazier and Lawrence Timmons the Steelers have the athletes to glue any tight end in coverage. If that weren't enough to discount the potential force-feeding Cameron will receive, it has to also be considered that Brian Hoyer has started just four career games and looked pretty awful in the preseason.
