Exploiting the Matchups: Rivers Will Flow

The first rule of fantasy football: don't overreact to one week.

OK, maybe that's not the first rule, but it's an important one to remember, especially this time of year. Case in point: after one week the top two run defenses are the Cleveland Browns and Dallas Cowboys. Heck, even the Lions are top five. There's reason to argue legitimacy for these numbers – the Cowboys actually finished first in run defense in 2016 and Detroit and Cleveland faced David Johnson (11 for 23 rushing) and Le'Veon Bell (10 for 32 rushing) respectively – but it's too soon to avoid any of these defenses.

Dallas' front seven has two talented linebackers and little else. The Cowboys topped the league in run defense last year simply because teams did not run on them (340 attempts against were fewest in the league). Last week they faced a Giants offense that barely tried to run and one which possesses arguably the worst backfield in the league. Cleveland and Detroit ranked 31st and 18th against the run last year, respectively, and while both boast upgrades at linebacker, they still have a long way to go before being feared by fantasy owners. And of course, these three defenses are just examples to prove a point. There's still so much to learn about this season and teams' capabilities that reading into anything that happened in Week 1 too heavily is detrimental to your fantasy success/sanity.

So kicking aside a weird Week 1 where defenses ruled, let's take a breath and understand it will get much, much better. Even if you're one of the especially unlucky few that lost David Johnson (wrist). There are ways to adjust and points to chase. Consider just how bad the first week was from an offensive perspective. Here are the total points scored in Week 1 of the last five seasons.

2013 - 742
2014 - 716
2015 - 724
2016 - 718
2017 - 606

Even when considering that the Dolphins vs. Buccaneers meeting was moved and two fewer teams played, it is fair to assume they were not combing for more than 100 points to continue the recent deluge of points in Week 1's. From 2013-2016 teams as an aggregate averaged 22.7 points in the first week. This year that number dropped a full 2.5 points per team. That's a lot of scoring to lose from skill players across the league, and that's not even accounting for the fact there were a whopping eight defensive/special teams touchdowns scored last week.

Wait a sec … so where was I going with this? Oh yeah. That's right. The scoring will be back soon. Don't dump any of those underachievers yet. You drafted the Kelvin Benjamins, Joe Mixons, Brandon Marshalls and Adrian Petersons of the world for a reason. Talent will rise, situations will get sorted out and newcomers will change the script. It happens. Every. Single. Year. So just like they will be for the Bengals, Texans, Seahawks, Giants and Titans, who combined to score two touchdowns, better days are ahead for our fantasy teams.

Just breathe and wait one week. Things can change that fast in this whacky game we love.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are players you wouldn't roll out every week while Downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you might want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Philip Rivers, LAC vs. MIA

Rivers threw three touchdowns on the road in Denver against the "No Fly Zone" secondary while staring down a consistent Von Miller pass rush. Only Tom Brady has managed such a feat in the past two years. The Dolphins playing across the country without a single corner that can check the trio of Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin will be no challenge for a Chargers team that got to shake the rust off last week while Miami took an unanticipated bye due to Hurricane Irma. Welcome to the "City of Angels," Mr. Rivers.

Sam Bradford, MIN at PIT

What more does Bradford need to accomplish to get some fantasy love? He showed up to the Vikings the day before Week 1 started last year, learned the offense on the fly and threw for nearly 3,900 yards in 15 games with a 4-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio while setting an NFL record for completion percentage in a season (71.6). In his last 10 games donning purple he's completed an outrageous 75.3 percent of his passes for 15 touchdowns and 2,781 yards. Sometimes an "upgrade" is less about the opponent and more about a rising talent. In this case, Bradford's wait has been a long time coming, but the talent was always there. It was merely wasting away in a Rams uniform or on the sidelines. The Steelers have a pass rush, but their secondary can get burned and Bradford has the weapons to do some torching.

Tyrod Taylor, BUF at CAR

His weapons might be different, but he's still the same old Taylor – a creative playmaker able to make big somethings out of total nothings. The Panthers' defense looks like it could be back to the 2015 form that helped guide it to a Super Bowl, while Carolina's offense has the weapons in place to go up and down the field on a lackluster Bills defense. Expect Buffalo's tanking to begin in a game that could get out of hand early. For Taylor owners, that's perfect. In eight games in which Buffalo has allowed 30 points since 2015 the dual-threat signal caller has racked up 2,057 yards and 15 scores with his arm and 374 yards and four touchdowns with his legs.

Trevor Siemian, DEN vs. DAL

Dallas won't have the benefit of facing another team without its star receiver. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will cause major headaches for the subpar Cowboys corners. The soft matchup makes Siemian an easy upgrade this week for two quarterback leagues, particularly after he managed to manufacture three touchdowns against the Chargers' playmaking duo of Casey Hayward and Jason Verrett while having to regularly navigate a collapsing pocket from the relentless pressure of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. If he can pass that test with flying colors, he should have little trouble versus a far less tenacious Dallas defense.

Running Back

James White, NE at NO

The Patriots visiting Drew Brees in New Orleans all but ensures a shootout whether Dont'a Hightower (knee) suits up or not. Against a Saints team that struggles to defend the perimeter with slower linebackers and corners who don't wrap up, look for White to build off a strong Week 1 where his 68 scrimmage yards and 13 touches were first and second on the team, respectively. He'll be a major challenge for this defense on sweeps and screens designed to get him on the edges, and if Danny Amendola (concussion) is out, don't be shocked if White approaches double-digit catches as the team's best underneath target.

Kerwynn Williams, AZ at IND

There's a strong chance the Cardinals' replacement of David Johnson is done by committee, but Williams, who did score versus Detroit and boasts a career average of 5.4 YPC on 103 totes will be first up. Facing the Indianapolis team that drafted and discarded him in 2013, Williams will use a combination of vision, shiftiness and flash acceleration to gouge a terrible Colts defense. With a very similar build and running style to Justin Forsett, don't be surprised when Williams excels in Johnson's absence.

Giovani Bernard, CIN vs. HOU

The Bengals' offensive line could not have been more horrible in Week 1 and yet somehow Bernard managed to average nearly 10.0 yards per touch while the rest of the offense looked stuck in mud. Talented, angry and out to prove something, Bernard is Cinci's best hope versus a Texans defense that allowed 178 scrimmage yards and two scores to tailbacks last week. With Brian Cushing out (concussion/suspension) and Benardrick McKinney fighting through knee soreness, look for Bernard to find and excel in space.

Chris Carson, SEA vs. SF

Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey combined for 38 touches, 167 yards and a touchdown against a 49ers team that could not keep the game within reach last week. What are the odds that Seattle, in its home opener, leans on its defense and ground game to establish a similarly wide margin on the scoreboard? After watching the Seahawks hold Aaron Rodgers and Co. scoreless for a half in Lambeau, chances seem pretty darn good. Carson, who more than doubled C.J. Prosise and Eddie Lacy in snaps with Thomas Rawls (ankle) out in Week 1 and posted 49 scrimmage yards on just seven touches, could be poised for a huge workload while Rawls is eased back in to action.

Theo Riddick, DET at NYG

PPR alert! In Riddick's last 27 games dating to the start of 2015 the slot receiver masquerading as a running back has averaged 5.1 catches per game with nine receiving scores in that stretch. The Giants matchup is tough, sure, but as Matthew Stafford's favorite security blanket, Riddick actually shines brightest versus the best defenses. Against the four stingiest defenses he faced in 2016 – Minnesota (twice), Houston, Jacksonville and Philadelphia – he posted 28 catches, 432 scrimmage yards and three scores. With Ameer Abdullah healthy he won't get many carries, but the New Jersey native will have little trouble attacking the weakest link for the Giants – their linebackers – with checkdown after checkdown.

Wide Receiver

Tyrell Williams, LAC vs. MIA

Williams led the Chargers in receiving in 2017 and yet somehow he's been wildly overlooked since that chapter went in the books. However, when he draws coverage from Xavien Howard, a second-year corner who played in just seven games as a rookie and has six passes defensed to his name, Williams will remind the fantasy community he's every bit the equal of more heralded teammate Keenan Allen. The bigger-play threat of the two, Williams torched Miami last year for 125 yards and a score and will look for seconds in this rematch.

Michael Crabtree, OAK vs. NYJ

Don't overthink this one. Crabtree is a favorite of Derek Carr, and the Jets don't have a No. 2 corner even remotely capable of covering him. Amari Cooper will draw his usual attention and Crabtree will reap the benefits, just as he did last week when he looked as acrobatic and competitive at the catch point as ever.

Chris Hogan, NE at NO

Nothing cures what ails an offense like a meeting with the Saints' still porous defense. With Brandin Cooks set to draw similar attention to what Stefon Diggs saw in Week 1, don't be shocked if Hogan plays the role Adam Thielen did. In case your short-term memory is that shoddy, Thielen trashed a confused Saints secondary for nine grabs and 157 yards, with four of those more than 20 yards. Cooks might have more speed, but Hogan is the guy who tied with DeSean Jackson for the league lead in yards per catch last year (17.9).

Ted Ginn, NO vs. NE

There. Will. Be. Points. Ginn's speed is an element that few defenses can fully prepare for, and when this contest goes full track meet, don't be surprised if Ginn is piling up yardage in chunks while Willie Snead remains suspended.

Davante Adams, GB at ATL

It seems silly to have to remind anyone that Adams is a good option against the Falcons, but for anyone scared off by the team-leading 12 targets Randall Cobb saw in Week 1, don't be. This shootout will challenge the NO vs. NE matchup for scoring supremacy, and Adams, who was a stud in the red zone for Aaron Rodgers last year, is as good a bet as anyone to find paydirt. After all, in last year's regular season visit to Atlanta, Rodgers tossed four touchdowns.

Tight End

Jared Cook, OAK vs. NYJ

Catching all five of his targets in his first game teaming up with Carr, it's clear the deposed Packers tight end has established a very quick rapport with his new quarterback. Despite being the clear third option behind Cooper and Crabtree, don't be surprised if Cook is well fed against a Jets defense whose rookie safeties still have a lot of growth to make in the coverage department (see: Charles Clay going 4-53-1 last week).

Antonio Gates, LAC vs. MIA

The Chargers' first home game in Los Angeles provides the chance for Gates to take sole possession of first place among all tight ends in league history in touchdowns, as he's tied at 111 with Tony Gonzalez. While Hunter Henry should play a role this week after being mysteriously M.I.A. against Denver, don't be shocked when Gates is force-fed a bit, particularly in close where his huge body still lets him box out safeties and linebackers with ease.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Dak Prescott, DAL at DEN

The ultimate equalizer in any tough matchup, Prescott's superb offensive line allows him the protection to remain calm and collected even against the most aggressive defenses. The problem with facing a combo of pass rush and sticky coverage that the Broncos and Giants boast is that from a fantasy perspective your best hope is a "game manager" stat line similar to the 268 yards, one score and 24 rushing yards Prescott just produced. It's fine, but there's no boom and little hope for one. With Dallas likely to lean on Ezekiel Elliott again to make the breathing easier for Prescott in that thin Denver air, there are similar-floor, higher-ceiling options all over.

Marcus Mariota, TEN at JAC

The Jacksonville defense put as thorough and epic a shellacking on the Houston offense last week as there may be this entire season. The Texans had a trifecta of personnel problems conspiring against them and failure was imminent. A left tackle holdout kept the blindside exposed for two extremely raw and inexperienced quarterbacks who happened to have virtually nothing besides one gifted receiver to throw to. Mariota and Tennessee have none of those issues. A stacked receiving corps and high-end, battle-tested offensive line will support a rising star under center. So why the downgrade? It's simple. Mariota struggled at home versus a highly flawed Raiders defense and now has to go to a division rivals house, one that may legitimately have as complete a defense as there is in football. Mariota has a great ceiling, but he could have a lower floor than many backups this Sunday.

Matthew Stafford, DET at NYG

When he faced this stingy Giants defense in December last year, Stafford did so without the services of rookie playmaker Kenny Golladay and top running backs Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick. What he did have, however, was standout left tackle Taylor Decker. With better protection but less weapons he failed to find the end zone while throwing one pick. The line held up last week while he torched a Cardinals defense that's good on paper. Unfortunately for him, the Giants are very good in real life, and Jason Pierre-Paul, Janoris Jenkins and Landon Collins will make an encore nearly impossible outside of the familiar fast track of Ford Field.

Running Back

Le'Veon Bell, PIT vs. MIN

The Steelers' offense should be a bit better after shaking off some rust in Week 1 and returning to their home field, but they'll also draw a significantly better overall defense. Bell showed that he's not quite ready for the workload he'd need to put up big numbers against such a stingy front seven. The Saints' trio of talented tailbacks failed to generate anything on the ground, tallying just 53 yards on 19 carries against the Vikings, so while Bell's nearly impossible to bench, his owners should anticipate a more disappointing performance than usual when considering their other starters. In other words, swing for the fences with that flex spot.

Kareem Hunt, KC vs. PHI

Fletcher Cox and Timmy Jernigan are going to make it awfully tough for any team to run between the tackles on the Eagles, while speedy linebackers Jordan Hicks and Mychal Kendricks are able to clean up anything on the perimeter. Hunt's sensational debut makes him a must-start until proven otherwise, but he may need to do most of his damage through the air in this one. For all those uncontrollably excited about him, this could be a game in which just reaching double-digits points is a win.

DeMarco Murray, TEN at JAC

The Titans' quarterback and offensive line play in no way resembles the Texans ensemble that Jacksonville just demolished, so chances are Tennessee as a whole won't make the Jags defense look like the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. Nevertheless, a front seven that features the combo of size and movement skills possessed by Calais Campbell, Malik Jackson and Myles Jack will make it difficult for every opponent to run the ball this year. Murray, who will continue to cede carries to Derrick Henry and struggled against a soft Raiders front seven, will be no exception.

Isaiah Crowell, CLE at BAL

Fresh off a man-handling of a Bengals offensive line that, on paper at least, is far worse than Cleveland's, the Ravens' stout front seven will look to mimic the effort its bruising brothers in the AFC North laid on the Browns in Week 1. Pittsburgh held Crowell to a miserable 33 yards on 17 attempts with a long run of six yards, while bombarding DeShone Kizer on dropbacks and daring the rookie to make them pay. Baltimore's equally ferocious defense, led by the ageless Terrell Suggs and big bodies of Brandon Williams and Michael Pierce up front could leave Crowell owners with a sick feeling of déjà vu.

Todd Gurley, LAR vs. WAS

Buy the inefficiency. Pay every damn penny for it until proven otherwise. Gurley could barely average 2.0 YPC versus the hapless, wounded-animal-that-should-be-put-down Colts when they were allowing 10.6 yards per pass attempt to Jared Goff. Gurley is improved as a receiver but lacks vision to create for himself when a huge hole is not opened up. He's volume and touchdown dependent, and while he has the first, without the latter his upside is capped as long as he remains horribly inefficient. Look for a much-improved Washington front seven to keep him that way.

Wide Receiver

Dez Bryant, DAL at DEN

New year, same story for Bryant versus the Giants. In three meetings with shutdown corner Janoris Jenkins the last two years the Cowboys star wideout now has caught a pitiful four of 23 targets for 61 yards. Unfortunately, if there could be a worse corner matchup than Jenkins, going to Denver to face the duo of Aqib Talib and Chris Harris would be it. Chalk Bryant up for another dud this week.

T.Y. Hilton, IND vs. AZ

In case you missed it, the Colts are not a very good offense without Andrew Luck. Whether it's Scott Tolzien or Jacoby Brissett under center for Indy, it doesn't matter. Hilton, as talented as he is, has no chance of overcoming both shoddy passing and blanket coverage by Patrick Peterson.

Alshon Jeffery, PHI at KC

Squaring off with Josh Norman in his Eagles debut, it took more than 20 minutes of game action before Jeffery even saw a target, ultimately securing three of seven looks for a mediocre 38 yards. It may take time for he and Carson Wentz to really establish a connection and going to Arrowhead to be shadowed by Marcus Peters – arguably one of the five corners quarterbacks are most hesitant to challenge – doesn't figure to accelerate the process.

Pierre Garcon, SF at SEA

Garcon likely has a safe floor most weeks by sheer volume, as evidenced by his six catches for 81 yards versus Carolina on a team-high 10 targets. But this is not one of those weeks. Brian Hoyer to Garcon is a far cry from Aaron Rodgers to Jordy Nelson, and save for the 32-yard touchdown the Packers pair produced when they caught Seattle trying to substitute, their days were both modest. And they were in Lambeau. Hoyer and Garcon traveling to Seattle to face a pumped up team is going to be quite the initiation into what was recently one of the best rivalries in football.

Corey Davis, TEN at JAC

It was entirely excusable for fantasy owners if they were hesitant to play Davis last week after he failed to make an appearance in the preseason because of a hamstring injury. After leading the team with 10 targets and hauling in six for 69 with some highlight reel plays, there should be little fear. Despite his serious star potential, however, he belongs on the bench for one more week. Jalen Ramsey presents a far less friendly matchup than the Raiders secondary.

Tight End

Travis Kelce, KC vs. PHI

The Eagles caused problems for tight ends all of 2016, allowing the fewest yards in the league to the position, and that ownership of the middle of the field carried over to last week when they held Jordan Reed to 32 yards. Kelce was not needed in the offensive throttling of New England, but even if he's called upon more in Kansas City's home opener, Philadelphia has the personnel to limit him. They boast speed at linebacker, the always underrated Malcolm Jenkins at free safety and a defensive line that can wreak havoc and force any quarterback – even Week 1 hero Alex Smith – out of rhythm.

Tyler Eifert, CIN vs. HOU

Call this a self-inflicted downgrade. And it doesn't have anything to do with Eifert. Until the Bengals' offensive line proves that it can pass block for more than 0.005 seconds, don't count on much production from pass catchers not named A.J. Green in this offense. And although the Texans miraculously failed to notch a sack of Blake Bortles last week, this downgrade goes double for when Cincinnati is faced with a pass rush duo of J.J. Watt's and Jadeveon Clowney's caliber, which is, umm, pretty much never. So we've got a double down! Huzzah!