Exploiting the Matchups: Matthews Squared

Last year to kickoff the Week 10 Exploiting The Matchups I spent the intro advocating that owners stash little-owned running back handcuffs for what they might become down the stretch. Essentially, in a season littered with injuries I anticipated more coming and recommended that owners aim to be a step ahead of their league rather than battle things out on waivers if another big injury hit.

This season is not much different with loads of attrition already having impacted backfields all over the league. So I'm pushing the same concept again this year with precious few games left until the fantasy playoffs are on our doorstep. None of the trio of names I suggested last year (Jay Ajayi, Jordan Todman, Tre Mason) ended up getting their opportunities, but had I recommended Tim Hightower plenty of owners that missed on him later in the waivers process might have been thanking me for a fantasy title.

This year I'll stick with three suggestions -- after all, squeezing even one on the bench is a luxury for most teams.

1. Damien Williams, MIA – The "J-Train" has been chugging along awfully well these last few weeks (perhaps the understatement of the year given his 77-529-4 statline in three games). But at more than a 25-carry-per-game clip, and given the physicality with which he runs, who knows how a back who only touched the ball 56 times last year as a rookie will hold up under that workload. Given how the Dolphins line is blocking and how heavily they're relying on the run, Williams, who has at least 49 yards or a score in four straight, could be an instant fantasy starter.

2. Malcolm Brown, LA – Los Angeles plays the 49ers in Week 16, a.k.a. Super Bowl week for most leagues. So although it's natural to wonder why you would want to start the backup to Todd Gurley when even the superstar himself can't run for 100 yards in this offense, San Fran is the very simple answer. Every NFL running back and at least a dozen college backs can rack up triple digit yardage on the Niners. And Brown, who flashed excellent burst, balance and physicality in the preseason, actually has the pedigree of a potential NFL star -- he was the top-ranked running back recruit when he went to the University of Texas.

3. Kenneth Farrow, SD – Melvin Gordon is a stud. In just over half a season he's buried any concern that he wasn't worth the 15th-overall pick the Chargers spent on him in the 2015 draft. He's also touched the rock 221 times in that span. His pace for nearly 400 touches could catch up to Gordon, who ended his rookie season on IR with a knee injury that required microfracture surgery in January. If Farrow -- who finished his four-year career at the University of Houston with just shy of 3,000 rushing yards -- gets to start in the fantasy playoffs, he will draw the Raiders and Browns in Weeks 15 and 16 respectively with no one to steal touches in an otherwise barren backfield.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are guys you wouldn't roll out every week while downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you may want to consider an alternative for based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

Quarterback

Jay Cutler, CHI at TB

In his first game back from a thumb injury that cost him five weeks, Cutler became the only quarterback this season to throw for at least 250 yards and a touchdown versus the vaunted Minnesota defense WITHOUT turning it over. With Jordan Howard providing a tremendous threat out of the backfield and a true No. 1 wideout in Alshon Jeffery, look for Cutler to get even hotter against a Buccaneers defense that has given up 857 yards and eight touchdowns through the air over the last two contests.

Carson Wentz, PHI vs. ATL

Wentz has been riding a rollercoaster since losing his best offensive lineman, Lane Johnson, to suspension beginning in Week 6, but this Sunday he should enjoy more ups than downs facing an Atlanta defense that's allowed eight passing scores over the last two weeks. With the Falcons' offense on fire lately, it's at least fair to expect Wentz to be productive by volume. Last week he posted career-highs in attempts (47) and yards (364), and this matchup should enable him to pair scores with the gaudy yardage.

Trevor Siemian, DEN at NO

Every quarterback the Saints have faced has thrown for at least 250 yards or multiple touchdowns, with Colin Kaepernick topping that yardage list last week with 398 in catch-up mode. That's right, Colin "I throw a football like I'm trying to strike out Big Papi" Kaepernick went off for almost 400 yards on this defense. In case you hadn't noticed, Siemian's receivers are a massive upgrade from those Kaepernick is working with. Think upside play for two-QB formats or bye week gamble if you normally rely on Andrew Luck, Derek Carr or Matthew Stafford.

Case Keenum, LA at NYJ

The Jets have not been able to slow opposing signal callers when teams have elected to throw on them (Miami attempted just 28 passes). Before the sad 149 yards Ryan Tannehill went for last week, Gang Green had given up an average of 301.9 yards to opposing quarterbacks. For Keenum, a controversial starter who has quietly thrown for at least 266 yards in five straight games, that spells a golden opportunity to prove himself while getting the Rams back on a winning course.

Running Back

Darren Sproles, PHI vs. ATL

Ryan Matthews got the goal line touchdown for the second week in a row, but Sproles led the Eagles' backfield again in touches (16) and scrimmage yards (71), giving him 36 touches for 174 yards in that same span. While he may not find the end zone, Sproles figures to slice and dice a Falcons defense that has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing tailbacks (571) while continuing to lead the Philly backfield.

Chris Ivory, JAC vs. HOU

It's safe to say Ivory is officially healthy again. After a mysterious health scare slowed Ivory's first season in Jacksonville, the bruising runner finally looked like the 1,000-yard back that started 2015 by rumbling for 460 yards over the first four games of that season. Coming off a spry 18 carries for 107 yards versus the Chiefs, the No. 1 runner for the Jags is primed for an encore against a Texans defense that has given up a combined 536 yards and four touchdowns to Matt Asiata, Frank Gore, C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker and Theo Riddick in their last four outings.

Terrance West, BAL vs. CLE

This is exactly what West needs to get back on track. After suffering through two stinkers against defenses that stacked up to stop the run (a combined 23 carries for 31 yards versus the Jets and Steelers), West gets the pleasure of facing the team that drafted him. The Browns have allowed seven rushing scores to opposing tailbacks in the last three games and have only held a running back out of the end zone once all season, way back in Week 2 when they last faced West and the Ravens. Yes, this revenge matchup will be twice as nice for West and a Ravens team looking to stay on top of the AFC North.

Devontae Booker, DEN at NO

The Saints made DuJuan Harris look like Marshall Faulk as he ripped them for at least 59 yards rushing and receiving, averaged 5.9 YPC and hauled in a long touchdown reception. Booker may have stunk it up versus an inspired Raiders defense, but he'll be just fine this week as a pivotal part of the Denver offense in a very important game for both teams.

Andre Ellington, AZ vs. SF

Let's be clear about one thing: This is strictly a last resort kind of recommendation here. For example, if you happen to own three of LeSean McCoy, Latavius Murray, Frank Gore and Theo Riddick and have to scramble to fill a running back slot by turning to the waiver wire. Ellington has just 90 scrimmage yards on the season, but the speedster is a constant big-play threat -- five of his 12 career touchdowns have been from 36 yards out or longer, with the total yardage of those plays an eye-popping 308 yards. And, most importantly, he's going to get carries in a blowout against a horrific 49ers run defense that even allowed Peyton Barber to rip off a late 44-yard score en route to an 84-yard effort just three weeks ago.

Wide Receiver

Jordan Matthews, PHI vs. ATL

Matthews has not hit triple-digit yardage since Week 1 and has just one touchdown in his last five outings, but he's a must-start this Sunday. The Eagles have no one challenging him for targets in one of the league's thinnest receiver corps. That has resulted in 24 targets over the last two weeks, and facing a Falcons defense that's allowed the second-most receiving yards (1,654) and touchdowns (14) to opposing wideouts, that kind of volume is going to result in Matthews' best day since September.

Rishard Matthews, TEN vs. GB

With no better than six catches or 82 yards in a game this season, Matthews is not exactly setting the box score on fire. And what can you really expect in an "exotic smashmouth" offense that lives up to it's coach's self-proclaimed style? What you can expect from Matthews, it seems, is red zone opportunities. The big-bodied possession receiver has become a favorite of Marcus Mariota's inside the opponent's 20 yard line, as he's snatched five scores in the last five games in the red zone. Counting on touchdowns in fantasy can be a risky proposition, but with a miserably-thin Packers secondary coming to town, Matthews' hot stretch could continue.

J.J. Nelson, AZ vs. SF

With Michael Floyd (hamstring) and John Brown (legs) suffering from nagging injuries and inconsistent play most of the year, the ultra fast Nelson has carved out a key role in a Cardinals offense that likes to go downfield. He's seen 19 targets in their last two games and posted at least 79 yards in each, including notching two scores versus Carolina prior to their bye. Now even Larry Fitzgerald is banged up with a sprained ankle and next on the docket is a 49ers defense that has allowed 15 touchdowns to wide receivers during their 7-game losing skid. In other words, Nelson's lightning 4.28-speed is primed to keep making plays this week.

Eli Rogers, PIT vs. DAL

In three of their last five games, the Cowboys have given up at least six catches, 53 yards and a touchdown to an opposing slot receiver, with those three wideouts combining for 24-206-3. Unless the Steelers can shut down a Cowboys offense that's averaged 33.4 points per game during their seven-game win streak, Ben Roethlisberger will be unfurling plenty of passes, and Rogers, who was on the other end of 10 targets last week in catch-up mode, will continue the trend of slot receivers to find success against Dallas.

Steve Smith, BAL vs. CLE

Smith logged 58 out of a possible 70 offensive snaps versus the Steelers in his first week back from an ankle sprain that cost him two games and change. And come Monday he was not even on the Baltimore injury report. In other words, the Steve Smith farewell tour will get back to beating the snot out of defensive backs Thursday night versus a Browns defense that's allowed six touchdowns to wide receivers in their last four.

Tight End

Lance Kendricks, LA at NYJ

The Jets really haven't faced many of the league's top tight ends -- only Travis Kelce and Jimmy Graham so far -- and yet they've allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position (standard scoring). Kendricks is fresh off a 12 target, 90-yard day, and after catching seven balls in consecutive games and producing at least 55 yards or score in three straight, the best may be yet to come.

Vernon Davis, WAS vs. MIN

Davis has snagged 11-of-11 targets for 172 yards over his last two contests, with 93 of those coming prior to the Redskins' bye WITH Jordan Reed back in the lineup. Kirk Cousins loves his tight ends and facing a Vikings team that's allowed at least 88 yards to a top tight end in back-to-back contests, expect Davis and Reed to both be as busy as ever.

DOWNGRADE:

Quarterback

Drew Brees, NO vs. DEN

If ever there was a game to bench Brees in favor of a strong backup option, this would be it. Sure, Brees managed to complete 27-of-35 for 265 yards and total two TDs versus the vaunted Seahawks defense just two weeks ago in his house. But the Seattle pass defense is not on par with the Broncos this year. No defense is, quite frankly. Even with Aqib Talib (back) sidelined versus Oakland last Sunday, a red hot Derek Carr managed only 184 yards at 5.9 yards per attempt and no scores. As it turns out, the 184 yards Carr turned in almost exactly matches the league-best 183.3 passing yards this great defense is limiting opposing quarterbacks to. Just saying.

Kirk Cousins, WAS vs. MIN

Cousins has produced multiple touchdowns in five of his last six outings and is coming off a 458-yard performance and his bye week. Plus his weapons are almost completely healthy. The arrow is pointing up for a player that dominated the second half of the 2015 season and could be poised for déjà vu this year. Unfortunately, this week does not figure to continue the big numbers or start off any kind of rampage. The Vikings have yet to allow a 300-yard passer and only two quarterbacks have thrown for more than one score against an elite defense that is trying keep Minnesota's playoff hopes high.

Cam Newton, CAR vs. KC

The Chiefs' defense has played well, and yes, that has something to do with this downgrade. They put pressure on the quarterback and have an opportunistic secondary. But this is mostly a player-imposed downgrade. Newton simply has none of the magic he did during an epic MVP run last year. Four out of his seven games have resulted in three combined touchdowns while he's failed to top 43 rushing yards in six of those and only thrown for more than 262 yards twice. Moreover, he's averaging a turnover per game. There's still eight games for him to right the ship, but with a good defense coming to town, there are simply better options out there.

Running Back

Isaiah Crowell, CLE at BAL

Crowell was one of the league's hottest backs through four weeks of football, as he'd racked up 394 yards (at 6.5 YPC) and three touchdowns on the ground. One of those scores was an 85-yard explosion versus the Ravens defense he draws again this Thursday. Unfortunately for him, he has had an extremely steep fall from grace since that time. Crowell has managed just 134 rushing yards over five games, and though he's had some flashes in that stretch, he's simply useless facing a Ravens D that has allowed the fewest rushing yards and fantasy points to opposing tailbacks.

Spencer Ware, KC at CAR

Ware missed last week with a concussion but is on track to return this Sunday. Unfortunately for him and his owners, what awaits Ware could be painful. The Panthers have given up only two touchdowns to opposing running backs since allowing C.J. Anderson to score two in Week 1. Moreover, in their last two outings, Carolina's beastly front seven has held David Johnson and Todd Gurley to a combined 22 carries for 72 yards.

Christine Michael, SEA at NE

The Patriots have a middle of the road run defense and just traded away their best all-purpose linebacker in Jamie Collins. It doesn't matter though. The Bills have been even worse stopping the run and yet they held Michael to ONE STINKING YARD. Sure, the "top" back for Seattle found the end zone, but with just the one yard on five carries, a couple things are clear. 1.) The Seahawks are officially no longer committed to the ground game. 2.) Michael's hold of the lead back role is far from safe. C.J. Prosise is back and going to keep pushing a runner who hasn't topped 4.0 YPC in five straight games and has only rushed for more than 66 yards once all year.

Todd Gurley, LA at NYJ

The Jets have faced a who's who of running backs -- David Johnson, Jay Ajayi, Le'Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy and Spencer Ware, to name a few -- and yet they've still allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game in the league (81.0). Poor Mr. Gurley has yet to have a 100-yard rushing effort this year and hasn't even registered a single carry of 20 or more yards. And those sad realities will likely remain true after this week.

Wide Receiver

Allen Robinson, JAC vs. HOU

Getting a huge target share the last two weeks, Robinson has managed to post consecutive games with at least 70 yards after failing to hit the mark since Week 1. He even found the end zone last week and is finally starting to look like he's on the same page as Blake Bortles. Sadly, that progress could be halted this Sunday when a rested Houston squad that ranks second in passing defense comes to town. The Texans are atop the AFC South because of the way they've slowed opposing aerial attacks, and particularly No. 1 wideouts -- T.Y. Hilton, Demaryius Thomas and Marvin Jones have all failed to reach 50 yards against them over their last three games.

Brandin Cooks, NO vs. DEN

Cooks has only exceeded 68 yards twice this year, and those were contests in which he burned terrible coverage for touchdowns of 98 and 87 yards. The Broncos secondary is not about to blow a coverage like that. They're simply too well coached, too talented and too disciplined. So, unless the tiny speedster can find the end zone against a defense that has allowed only two wide receivers to score all year, he's going to be a bad start.

Dez Bryant, DAL at PIT

Somehow, despite having bad cornerbacks, the Steelers have been awfully stingy to opposing wide receivers. They've allowed just four touchdowns to wideouts and only Brandon Marshall and Mike Wallace topped 100 yards on them. Marshall required 15 targets while Wallace was aided (just a tad) by a 95-yard catch and run. Dallas has consistently won with or without Bryant, who's struggled to get on the same page with Dak Prescott. In fact, in two games since returning from injury he's caught only five of 18 targets. The bottom line is he's not needed, not in sync with his quarterback, and facing an uninspiring matchup. Proceed with caution.

Odell Beckham, NYG vs. CIN

Only two teams have allowed fewer catches to wide receivers and only four have given up less yards to the position than the Bengals. That means little to a transcendent talent like Beckham, but it does speak to the level of cornerback play Cincinnati boasts, and it bears noting that the Giants' superstar has only topped 56 yards once in his last five performances. Of course, that one game was a 222-yard massacre of the Ravens, and he has snagged five touchdowns in his last four outings. You're playing him, but don't be surprised if this effort is below Beckham's usual standards.

Stefon Diggs, MIN at WAS

Diggs has proven that he's back to full strength after missing a game prior to the team's Week 6 bye with a groin injury, but his 21 catches over the last two games have produced just 156 yards for a measly 7.4 yards per catch. That's still great for PPR leagues, but, this week, target volume alone may not be enough to produce. Josh Norman certainly won't let him approach double-digit catches the way the hapless Chicago and Detroit secondaries did.

Tight End

Martellus Bennett, NE vs. SEA

In a week that features no truly bad matchups for tight ends, Bennett is the one noteworthy downgrade, and it's much deserved. Not only will he face a Seattle defense that has given up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends (standard scoring), but Bennett will also have to do so while battling a lingering ankle injury that has contributed to his recent struggles -- 10 catches for 88 yards totaled over his last three games.