Exploiting the Matchups: Look For Lamar

All my fantasy teams are doing well. My rosters are competitive and some luck has gone my way. Except one. Except by far my favorite league. The Spiderpigs (I've referenced my Simpsons-themed home league numerous times) are absolutely tanking. Part of the problem is owed to poor drafting (inexplicably took Kevin White two picks ahead of Marvin Jones) and part to coaching errors (cost myself in Week 1 electing to flex Sammy Watkins over Matt Forte), but mostly it's been an onslaught of misfortune.

The aforementioned Watkins is on IR with foot issues, Charles Sims (knee) took some of my RB depth there too and Donte Moncrief (shoulder) has helped thin out my receiving corps. But injuries are just a small part of it. The real killer for my 1-4 squad is something I can do nothing about: my defense. I've had on average at least 12.4 more points scored against me per week than the next poor sap, and roughly 28.0 points a game more than two of the top three teams. I've actually scored less than eight points fewer per week than my future brother-in-law who is sitting in second place. So what do you do when you can't control teams blasting you week in and week out?

You side bet.

The pain of getting to play Tom Brady AND Martellus Bennett in this league last week was assuaged by my new best friend, Sammie Coates. Not only did I pump him up in my Week 5 "Exploiting The Matchups" and start him in my lopsided loss, but I also put what I viewed as a colorful side bet on him. A co-worker who was attending the game in Pittsburgh relentlessly bashed Coates all week, refusing to give any credence to my confidence in the Steelers' best deep threat. Of course, I assumed, this life-long Jets fan either hadn't seen his own team play or was one of the very few of his kind not to be pessimistic-to-a-fault about his own squad. So, I set the bar at 70 yards -- Coates' average through four games -- and we agreed to a small wager: a buck for every yard above or below the line.

Thank you for the $23, anonymous, sheepish Jets fan.

This week I will watch the games in a cigar bar with my best friend, a huge Cowboys fan. I'm a Cheesehead, so naturally, a Scotch or two deep (or three or four since it's a 4:25 p.m. EST kickoff), we'll agree to terms on a side bet of the Packers' top-ranked run D vs. budding superstar Ezekiel Elliott. I'm thinking the rook's stardom warrants an over/under in the 80 yards range, but we'll see how drunk and terrified I am by about 3 p.m. Sunday. Seeing as how my Pigs will be poised to get their faces kicked in by Russell Wilson, David Johnson and Brandon Marshall, I figure I might as well spice up the weekend.

Finally, regarding the reason we're here, I must apologize about the lack of strategic advice in the intro. Unfortunately, the hard truth is the best defense is a better offense. Hence, the nearly 3,000 words below. So read that, take some good gambles and hope for the best.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are guys you wouldn't roll out every week while downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you may want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. CLE

After forcing the issue for four weeks, Mariota finally just played his game in a Week 5 victory over Miami. He took what the defense gave him, made smart, accurate throws and finally utilized his legs. The results were four total touchdowns and 60 yards on the ground. With a run game that can grind down defenses and soften them for play-action success, if Mariota continues to take what is there, he'll continue to thrive. And fortunately for the second-year signal caller, taking from Cleveland is not difficult -- three touchdown passes allowed in three straight, and even Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill have pitched it for more than 300 yards against the Browns.

Dak Prescott, DAL at GB

After tallying just one touchdown in his first two games, Prescott has produced two in each of the last three while also throwing for at least 227 yards. His ability to protect the ball and efficiency as a passer (9.2 yards per attempt since Week 1) gives him a high floor each week. Since the Packers' defense requires pressure to keep quarterbacks from carving up a depleted corner group, the unshakeable rookie may be hitting his ceiling behind one of football's best offensive lines.

Brian Hoyer, CHI vs. JAC

Hoyer is riding a three-game streak with at least 300 yards and two touchdowns, and a visit from the Jaguars shouldn't threaten that too much. Despite playing without Kevin White (leg/IR) and with Alshon Jeffery (hamstring) and Eddie Royal (calf) at less than 100 percent, the journeyman piled up just shy of 400 yards against Indianapolis. With a strong ground game led by Jordan Howard and a defense that bleeds points, Hoyer is going to continue to lead an offense that moves the ball and throws heavily. That volume will translate to production again versus a vanilla defensive opponent like Jacksonville.

Alex Smith, KC at OAK

Outside of shutting down a struggling Marcus Mariota -- who was minus his top target, mind you -- the Raiders have allowed at least 298 yards and multiple touchdowns to every quarterback they've faced, with three going for over 350 yards and at least three scores. Their secondary is susceptible to blown coverages and their pass rush is almost non-existent (seven sacks in five games). Andy Reid may not want Smith to throw it 35-plus times, but he figures to have no choice facing Oakland's fifth-ranked scoring offense (28.4 points per contest).

Colin Kaepernick, SF at BUF

When Chip Kelly first got his hands on Michael Vick, it looked like the results would be fantasy gold. Of course, after throwing for two touchdowns and rushing for another in each of those first two contests together, Vick eventually got hurt as he always did and gave way to a bizarre and shocking Nick Foles rampage. Owners in a position to gamble in two-QB leagues should take note. At his best, Kaepernick had eight games in 2013 with over a 100.0 passer rating and gouged defenses on the ground for a career mark of 6.0 YPC. The Bills, who sit fourth in the league in sacks, like to attack downhill and force bad decisions by quarterbacks. If they try that approach with Kaepernick and the veteran is true to his athletic instincts, they may sorely regret it.

Running Back

Lamar Miller, HOU vs. IND

This is not so much an "upgrade" as it is a vote of confidence for someone that really needs it. Five games, one 100-yard rushing day, zero plays of more than 15 yards and no touchdowns. Ouch. By sheer volume Miller has managed to consistently produce nice yardage totals, but he's failed to deliver any of the week-changing performances for which he was drafted. Until now. The Colts have allowed seven total touchdowns to opposing tailbacks and have been shredded the last two games by T.J. Yeldon and Jordan Howard to the tune of 280 total yards on 37 touches.

Ryan Mathews, PHI at WAS

Mathews couldn't have a better opportunity to atone for the fourth quarter fumble last week that cost Philly a win than a trip to Washington. The Skins have allowed more yards per carry (5.1) and rushing touchdowns (eight, tied with two teams) than any defense in football. Moreover, seeing Mathews snag all five of his targets in the passing game, including a short scoring grab, was a huge positive for a tailback that entered the game with one catch.

Spencer Ware, KC at OAK

Two years ago when Jamaal Charles was last healthy for the bulk of a season he carried it only 206 times in 15 games, ceding 169 rush attempts to his backfield mates. Despite Spencer Ware's fumbling issues (three lost the last three games), he will still be needed with Charles being eased back from the ACL injury and Andy Reid preferring to spread the backfield wealth. So don't be afraid to play the wrecking-ball back averaging 5.3 YPC versus a Raiders D relenting 4.9 YPC, good for 31st in the league.

Theo Riddick, DET vs. LA

For as athletic as the Rams' front seven is with headliners like Aaron Donald, Alec Ogletree and Mark Barron, it's a mystery they can't tackle ball carriers. They've allowed healthy averages of 4.4 YPC and 8.1 yards per catch to opposing tailbacks, while giving up more than 120 total yards to the last three No. 1 backs they've faced. With at least 15 touches in every week, Riddick is clearly that for Detroit, and while he's best as a situational runner, his exceptional receiving skills make him a threat to pile up yards versus any defense.

Wide Receiver

Jeremy Maclin, KC at OAK

Maclin has not scored since Week 1 and has mostly underwhelmed since, registering 181 yards in his last three contests despite 30 targets over that span. Enter the Oakland Raiders' porous secondary. No defense has given up more yards or fantasy points to opposing wideouts. They've allowed five different receivers to top 100 yards and are about to make it a sixth as Maclin gets back on track.

Michael Thomas & Brandin Cooks, NO vs. CAR

You may notice that not only am I listing Cooks here as an "upgrade" but I'm also listing him after Thomas. That's how ineffective he's been since Week 1. Cooks has compiled just 44 yards on five receptions the last two games and has averaged only four catches per contest and 9.3 yards per catch since a monster season opener. But the dreadful Panthers corners have arrived to save the day. Sean Payton and Drew Brees likely took the bye week to figure out how to better employ their best playmaker. Meanwhile, it's a safe bet they have no intention of scaling back the growing role of their promising rookie, who's scored in consecutive games and whose physicality may be helpful against Carolina's big corners.

Michael Floyd & John Brown, AZ vs. NYJ

Floyd and Brown have both largely disappointed this year. Combined, they've caught just 31-of-72 targets with Floyd's 34.2% catch rate being flat out atrocious. The latter just turned in a goose egg and hasn't topped double-digit fantasy points once in standard scoring, while Brown has no touchdowns and three one-catch games in five appearances. So why are you daring to play them now? Because the Jets are a cash cow for wide receivers that can stretch the field. Plain and simple. My boy Coates burned them for their eighth completion over 40 yards and the fourth that a secondary wideout turned into a long score. Both Floyd and Brown boast sub-4.5 speed and have career yards-per-catch averages of at least 14.7 yards, in case you were wondering. Super sneaky DFS plays this week, and great swing-for-the-fence guys in weekly leagues.

Terrance Williams, DAL at GB

In the past three games Williams has played the role of top downfield threat in an efficient Dallas pass attack, logging at least four catches and at least 70 yards or a touchdown in each contest. This week, with or without Dez Bryant (knee) in the lineup, he'll shake off a shoulder injury to keep the good times rolling against a Packers defense that still can't cover anyone and won't pressure Prescott nearly as successfully as they did Eli Manning.

Tight End

Charles Clay, BUF vs. SF

The 49ers have faced just two athletic tight ends with competent quarterback play this year (I left Jason Witten out, not to knock Dak Prescott, but because glaciers run faster after the catch). Those two each hit triple digit yardage and found the end zone -- and that was when they still had NaVorro Bowman (Achilles) patrolling the middle of the field. Clay has yet to achieve either of those feats this year, but he has snagged at least five passes in three of the last four games as one of Tyrod Taylor's de facto top targets, and now he could put his 4.69-speed to even greater use versus the vulnerable San Fran D.

Hunter Henry, SD vs. DEN

The Falcons set the model for how to beat an exceptional Denver defense -- attack them in the middle of the field where they're vulnerable. Since the Bolts no longer have Danny Woodhead (knee) to do that and Melvin Gordon is mediocre as a receiver, the job falls on the young Henry's shoulders this week to be the X-factor. The gifted rookie has been up to the task of late with at least 60 yards in three straight and TDs the last two weeks, so don't be surprised when his 4.66-speed becomes San Diego's best offensive weapon Thursday.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Philip Rivers, SD vs. DEN

Rivers has piled up 1,006 yards with no less than 321 in the past three games, and he's tossed it for six TDs in the past two. Of course, this is not a bottom-dwelling defense like that of the Colts, Saints or Raiders. The hot streak ends here.

Eli Manning, NYG vs. BAL

Somehow, despite a trio of wideouts named Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz, this two-time Super Bowl MVP has thrown a measly two touchdowns in the past four games. Unfortunately, the going doesn't look much easier with a Ravens defense coming to town that's yet to allow a quarterback to top 260 yards while limiting four of the five quarterbacks they've faced to a combined five passing scores.

Kirk Cousins, WAS vs. PHI

All you really need to know about this downgrade is that the Eagles held Ben Roethlisberger out of the end zone just three weeks ago. Cousins may be among the league leaders in passing yards, but he's failed to top 300 yards since Week 2, has three games with one or no touchdowns and now may be missing his best friend Jordan Reed, who's entered concussion protocol out of the blue. Against a fierce Philly pass rush, this has all the writings of a major dud showing.

Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. DAL

The Cowboys' offense is consistently controlling time of possession. They lead the league in first downs and have held the ball for nearly eight more minutes per game on average than their opponents. This is particularly bad news for a quarterback like Rodgers who is enjoying the least efficient season of his exceptional career. His 6.3 yards per attempt is good for 28th in the league, behind the likes of Trevor Siemian, Case Keenum and Cody Kessler. With fewer opportunities, this matchup could spell statistical disaster for the two-time MVP. By Sunday it will be 11 months and 13 games since his last 300-yard day, so unless he can find the end zone three or more times, he's doing more to hurt your fantasy team than he is to help.

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL at GB

It's tough to downgrade a guy that's increased his YPC average from 4.7 to 6.0 to 8.9 in consecutive weeks while topping 130 yards on the ground in each, but this rookie-of-the-year candidate has yet to face a top-10 run defense. The Packers, given it's a small sample size, are tops by a long shot. They're allowing one full yard less per carry than the next-stingiest run defense while giving up only 42.8 yards per game rushing. To put that into context, Seattle, the best versus the run in 2015, allowed nearly twice that. Something has got to give, and though you're never benching Elliott, expectations should be lowered.

Devonta Freeman, ATL at SEA

Freeman has scored in three straight games and just managed to rack up 123 total yards against the Broncos. But this meeting should be a different animal altogether. The Seahawks are rested coming off their bye week, are playing with one of the best home field advantages in football and with a Super Bowl winning quarterback who will have his offense keeping Atlanta's sidelined significantly more than Paxton Lynch could for Denver. This should be a great contest, but one that does not feature many yards for Freeman.

Isaiah Crowell, CLE at TEN

That Tennessee has faced the worst two rushing offenses in football and only one currently among the top-10 on the ground skews the fact that they're allowing the third fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Nevertheless, it's hard to like Crowell's chances of continuing his hot start to the season. After all, the Titans will be running a ball control offense against a terrible defense to dominate time of possession, and to make matters worse, Cleveland might have to bring Bernie Kosar out of retirement with their never-ending slew of quarterback injuries.

Wide Receiver

Julio Jones, ATL at SEA

Jones sandwiched his historic 300-yard game between outings of 16 and 29 yards in road victories that found him to be a minimal part of the gameplan. In those victories, the Falcons leaned on their sensational backfield to beat their opponent by exposing weaknesses. Last I checked, the secondary is definitely not one of Seattle's weaknesses. Expect Jones to be limited once again while Atlanta tries other weapons to move the ball.

Travis Benjamin, SD vs. DEN

Benjamin has racked up 362 receiving yards in the four games minus Keenan Allen (knee), with three of those topping 80 yards and two in the triple digits. That yardage train will come to a screeching halt this week, however. The Denver Broncos don't let receivers do that, as they've allowed a league-low 515 yards to the entire position group. To put that in perspective, that's less than half the total the Raiders' defense Benjamin just burned for 117 yards has given up.

Jarvis Landry, MIA vs. PIT

There are several layers to this downgrade. First, the Dolphins have been crushed in time of possession for consecutive weeks (74:46 to 45:14). As a result, they're simply not running enough plays to get this possession receiver (10.2 career YPC) the volume he needs to be productive (Tannehill has thrown just 43 passes in two weeks). Does anyone actually think they'll possess the ball more facing Big Ben and Co.? Didn't think so. Toss in how well the no-name Steelers corners have performed -- just three touchdowns to wide receivers despite the second most targets to the position -- and you have a recipe for disaster for Landry and the entire Miami O.

Tight End

Jordan Reed, WAS vs. PHI

Sure, the best tight ends the Eagles have faced are Gary Barnidge and Zach Miller, but still, their complete annihilation of the position demands attention. In four games they've allowed six catches for 43 yards to tight ends. Reed is suddenly in concussion protocol, but this is a friendly PSA is to inform you that regardless of his status for Sunday, you probably want to look elsewhere (unless you're playing PPR). Reed has underwhelmed with zero scores in four of five games and not one outing over 73 yards, so, even healthy, his ceiling doesn't appeal much.

Dennis Pitta, BAL at NYG

Pitta has snagged at least six catches in three of the last four games and now target hog Steve Smith is dealing with an ankle injury. That volume, however, might mean diddly squat this week. The Giants have given up only 15 catches to tight ends since Week 1 and have allowed only red-zone monster Kyle Rudolph to find the end zone despite also facing Reed, Jason Witten and Coby Fleener so far.