Exploiting the Matchups: Carson's Revenge

Just don't.

Scroll away from the "offer" button. Close out the page. Check your email. Update your Facebook status. Post some dumb Snapchat selfies. Whatever you have to do to avoid looking at Robinson in your fantasy lineup and scratching that horrible, irritating itch.

Don't scratch it.

You and I and millions of others drafted Robinson for the same reason. Don't forget that reason. Opportunity had something to do with last year's breakout year, sure. But the opportunity would not have come – and Robinson would not have delivered in such a big way – if he were not extremely talented. The first seven weeks of the season has not disproved his ability. His quarterback play and at times his focus have left a lot to be desired, but Robinson remains a special player. Don't throw the towel in on such a special talent only halfway into the fantasy season. Bench him if you have quality alternatives stashed away, but by all means, I repeat: DO. NOT. TRADE. HIM.

I've talked about my favorite home league numerous times. The Spiderpigs (Simpsons themed, in case you forgot or never heard my personal tales of woe or triumph) are in the midst of their worst season in franchise history. In this keeper league, I once won three straight Super Bowls. Some coaching changes have leveled the playing field in years past and some bad luck has kept me from a title for too long, but my 2-5 start is by far the worst. And yet, it has little to do with my team. After getting blasted last week by the highest single-game total of the season, my team has now had 130.2 more points scored against it than the next least lucky squad -- or for those of us who don't have our calculators out, 18.6 MORE points PER WEEK than anyone else has had to overcome.

That misfortune has caused me to constantly overthink and question my instincts. When you're losing, it's easier to get reactive then to stay patient. I've won this league in the past because I chose players based on abilities I saw on film. Constantly scrambling for points and watching teams crush me led me to forget this and go into reactive mode, essentially forgetting how I built a dynasty. I dropped both Jay Ajayi and Davante Adams because I simply couldn't wait for production. I had to find someone on the waiver wire to plunk on the bench that might save my season. Sadly, I forgot that I've always seen great playmaking ability in each and I dumped both right before their career games. I say this not because I think Robinson is going to promptly explode for a monster week, but because I don't want millions of owners to deal with the same grief I'm currently feeling. I don't want anyone to do a disservice to their team or season by exiling a guy for a slump we all know he can make us forget.

So my message this week is simple: trust what you've seen and stay patient.

There's still a second half to play. Golden Tate needed "a fire lit under his tail" with a horrible performance and deserved benching by Jim Caldwell. He's responded the past two games with 258 yards and a score. He's a professional, but also human. So is Robinson, and so are all of the guys we sometimes expect to be robots. There can only be so many Megatrons and even that future Hall-of-Famer suffered through slumps. Robinson is a playmaker, and hopefully, sooner or later, whatever sparks him will ignite into a raging inferno of big plays. Until then, stay patient and remember the old maxim: the cream always rises to the top.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are guys you wouldn't roll out every week while downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you may want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE:

Quarterback

Carson Palmer, AZ at CAR

The last time Palmer visited Carolina ended in a traumatic six-turnover debacle that left Arizona one game shy of the Super Bowl. This weekend will be his revenge. This Panthers team, and particularly it's secondary, is a shell of 2015's NFC Championship squad. Palmer also hasn't played up to his 2015 caliber, but he has managed at least 270 yards in all but one contest and just pitched it for 342 yards against a wild Seattle defense. With the best running back in football at his disposal, a future Hall of Fame receiver and armed with a hell of a lot of motivation, Palmer will deliver in a big way against a Panthers defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points in the league to opposing passers.

Jameis Winston, TB vs. OAK

The Raiders had no trouble with their cross-country trip to Florida last weekend, but that seemed to have much more to do with Blake Bortles' ineptitude and the dysfunctional Jaguars offense than Oakland's defensive effort. Jacksonville abandoned the run despite their running backs churning out 72 yards on 11 carries. The Bucs, who have leaned on sparkplug Jacquizz Rodgers in recent weeks, won't do that, and will let the run set up the pass against a defense allowing 5.0 yards per carry. Moreover, Winston, whose connection with stud wideout Mike Evans is as sharp as ever, will have no trouble exploiting a unit that remains dead last in passing yards allowed per game (302.1).

Dak Prescott, DAL vs. PHI

This will be the best defensive foe yet to test the cold steel nerve of Prescott. It won't matter, of course, versus one of the highest floor quarterbacks in fantasy. Prescott has produced multiple scores in four straight games. The last time he didn't, he threw for 292 yards and ran one in for six. He has not thrown for less than 227 yards yet and should get Dez Bryant back after a three-game absence. The Eagles defensive success is centered on pressuring the quarterback, but Prescott doesn't pressure easily. He sits behind the best offensive line in football, supported by the threat of an elite tailback, and boasts excellent mobility himself. If anything, blitzing Prescott will raise his floor by forcing him to scramble and do the damage he's very capable of doing with his legs. Add it all up and you'll find there are few safer plays available this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ at CLE

The woeful and winless Browns have allowed multiple passing scores in five straight, with 15 allowed in that span. Fitzpatrick may be having a miserable season by nearly anyone's standards, but his shortcomings have come in some awfully tough matchups. There's still time for him to right the ship and there's still that behemoth future HOF'er named Brandon Marshall to rock Cleveland with.

Running Back

Matt Forte, NYJ at CLE

Perhaps the Jets have finally found their formula for success. In Gang Green's two wins this season, Forte has run the ball exactly 30 times for exactly 100 yards in each, and not coincidentally, scored all five of his touchdowns on the year. The timing couldn't be better for Forte owners, by the way, as he now gets to square off with a Browns defense allowing 139.9 yards per game on the ground and 4.7 YPC.

Jacquizz Rodgers, TB vs. OAK

See Winston, Jameis. The Raiders are tied for 31st in rushing yards per carry allowed and Rodgers is a three-down, workhorse back until Doug Martin (hamstring) returns. He's piled up a whopping 292 total yards and touched the ball at least 27 times in his two starts. Rodgers should remain productive again this week, even if his attempts are cut a bit in order to keep him fresher.

Latavius Murray, OAK at TB

The Buccaneers have allowed at least 100 total yards or a touchdown to an opposing running back in every game and have given up two scores to tailbacks in three of their last four. With Raiders rookie running backs having underwhelmed in his absence, Murray assumed a workhorse role last week in return from a toe injury. He tallied 20 touches and two short TDs, giving him a score in each of the four games he started and finished, and five total for the year. So we have a goal line back getting and converting opportunities against a defense that's struggled to keep backs out of the end zone. Hmmm…

Matt Asiata, MIN at CHI

The big back in a Vikings offense that grinds out drives, Asiata has touched the ball at least 17 times in consecutive games and has scored or totaled at least 80 yards from scrimmage in three straight. Next up is a Bears defense that has allowed an opposing tailback to do just that in five of seven contests this year. With Jerick McKinnon battling an ankle injury, the 220-pound, hard-charging Asiata should keep up his quietly productive play.

Wide Receiver

Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN at CHI

In case you missed it, the Packers killed a banged up Bears secondary with quick, short strikes that gave their playmakers a chance in space. Three receivers caught 10 passes and topped 100 scrimmage yards, two finding the end zone. With at least six targets and four grabs in three straight, as well as scores in back-to-back games, Patterson is slowly emerging as a favorite target of Sam Bradford's. Sooner or later, his joystick, Madden-esque elusiveness is going to result in a huge play. Versus this beaten Bears defense, that breakout could come in Monday night primetime.

Ty Montgomery, GB at ATL

Whether he's listed in your league as a running back or a wide receiver, it doesn't matter. Montgomery's season trajectory has changed dramatically with the loss of Eddie Lacy (ankle) to IR. He's caught 10 passes in each of the past two weeks and piled up 230 total yards with triple digits in each game. He's PPR gold and the best may be yet to come versus an Atlanta defense that has allowed at least six receptions to opposing running backs in every contest. Moreover, Montgomery averaged 6.7 yards per carry as a running back last week and will be taking handoffs this Sunday against a group that's given up five rushing scores over the past two outings.

Michael Floyd, AZ at CAR

It's time for Floyd to put an entire game together. He's yet to reach double-digit fantasy points this year (standard scoring), but has very quietly had at least six points in all six weeks Carson Palmer has played. Floyd is fighting through a hamstring injury but he managed to play five quarters versus Seattle with the ailment, and with John Brown battling leg pain of his own as a symptom of his sickle-cell trait, Floyd should be featured in a rematch of last year's NFC Championship game. This time Palmer and Co. will have a much easier time moving the ball. The overmatched Carolina corners have bled at least 89 yards and a score to the last three No. 1 OUTSIDE receivers they've faced (Larry Fitzgerald mans the slot and will see lots of safety and linebacker attention).

Mohamed Sanu, ATL vs. GB

After an impressive Week 1, Sanu has been a big disappointment with only one touchdown and no games over 50 yards. His role as an underneath possession receiver was stolen by the dynamic Tevin Coleman, who currently ranks behind only Julio Jones among Falcons in receiving yards. But Sanu fans are getting a break. Coleman should be sitting out to rest a hamstring injury against a Packers D that is first against the run but has been missing its top three corners. Look for Sanu to mimic the role Cole Beasley played two weeks ago when he owned the middle of the field and found the end zone twice.

Brandon LaFell, CIN at WAS (in London)

The No. 2 wideout for Cinci has found the end zone four times in the last three games, with a score in each. While he's far and away the second fiddle to A.J. Green, the fact remains that LaFell is 6-foot-3, 210 pounds and one of the Bengals' top red zone targets until Tyler Eifert gets back to full strength. With Josh Norman suffering from a concussion and Bashaud Breeland dealing with an ankle injury, some inexperienced or castaway corner will be tasked with keeping LaFell from extending his scoring streak to four games. Translation: odds are in the vet's favor.

Tight End

C.J. Fiedorowicz, HOU vs. DET

Fiedorowicz may have followed up three straight games with at least 61 yards or a touchdown with only 35 yards, but that was due more to him being Osweilered than his individual effort (yup, when your QB can stink that bad it's got to become a term; it's in the rule book). And even despite his shoddy quarterback play, there was silver lining in Fiedorowicz's disappointing night. He still saw at least seven targets for the third consecutive game and caught five of them. Now his heavier usage will pay major dividends against a Lions defense that has allowed the most touchdowns (seven) and ninth most yards (423) to tight ends.

Gary Barnidge, CLE vs. NYJ

Over the last five weeks, Barnidge has produced 26 catches for 324 yards with no game below 57 yards. In a Browns offense that has been playing from behind virtually all season and with such a thin, inexperienced crop of wideouts, he is a safe floor guy. That floor may finally find double figures, however, with Josh McCown back to full practices. Barnidge was McCown's favorite target in 2015 (the pair hooked up for six touchdowns in seven games), and the Jets defense has been allowing an average of more than 60 yards per game to tight ends.

DOWNGRADE:

Quarterback

Philip Rivers, SD at DEN

Rivers has topped 300 yards in four of his last five games. The only one he failed to hit that plateau: two weeks ago versus an ultra-stingy Denver pass defense that held him to 178. When there are so many other quarterback possibilities, what's the point in testing those Denver corners?

Cam Newton, CAR vs. AZ

Newton is motivated, he's rested, and he can certainly visualize picking apart the Cardinals given how he torched them in the NFC Championship only nine months ago. However, a lot can change in nine months (just ask any parent). Newton had a four-touchdown effort in the title game, but that kind of production won't come as easily against an Arizona defense that's allowed seven total scores to opposing QBs and held Russell Wilson out of the end zone for five quarters.

Derek Carr, OAK at TB

This is less about the matchup and more about Carr's play, which has been decidedly inconsistent. He's completed less than 65% of his passes in all but two games, has failed to top 250 yards four times and has four single-score outings. In fact, more than half his touchdowns have come in two big games. The Buccaneers are a league-average defense, but they do have nice overall speed in the back seven and could make it difficult for Carr to exploit his only two significant weapons, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree.

Running Back

Mark Ingram, NO vs. SEA

The Seahawks just held David Johnson to 3.4 YPC on 33 attempts. What more do you need to know?

Lamar Miller, HOU vs. DET

The Lions are the only team in football that has yet to allow a rushing touchdown to a running back. That's bad news for a guy like Miller, who has just one rushing score on the season despite having already logged 136 carries. Moreover, a banged up shoulder saw him split attempts with Alfred Blue on Monday night. While he's not a threat to miss action, sharing the backfield makes him even less attractive facing a defense that's allowed only one 100-yard rusher.

Jonathan Stewart, CAR vs. AZ

Stewart managed 85 yards and two scores before heading into his bye week, but that was versus the Saints. The Cardinals defense could not possibly be mistaken for the New Orleans sieve that couldn't tackle an energetic puppy. In fact, their defense -- one of the surest tackling groups in football -- have allowed only 373 rushing yards and two touchdowns to running backs not named LeSean McCoy. Outside of that one exceptional performance, they've limited all other backs they've faced to 3.0 YPC.

Jordan Howard, CHI vs. MIN

Bury him this week. He's only received three more carries than Ka'Deem Carey over the last two games. Howard had a couple great performances, but if he can't even hold off a career backup and he's now got to deal with the Vikings front seven, bury him deep.

Wide Receiver

Tyrell Williams, SD at DEN

In two of his last three games, Williams has had at least 117 yards (12/257/1 total between the two contests). The third game in that stretch: a 28-yard effort against the Broncos at home. The young wideout has size, speed, strong hands and he's establishing himself as the top dog in a good San Diego aerial attack. He still doesn't have what it takes to best the star corners for Denver, unfortunately.

Alshon Jeffery, CHI vs. MIN

Last week Jeffery had to deal with Brian Hoyer breaking his arm and the horribly off-target Matt Barkley. This week an angry Vikings team is coming to town to face a cold, just-returned-from-injury Jay Cutler. Times are tough.

Brandin Cooks, NO vs. SEA

The diminutive Cooks has scored in consecutive games after suffering through a dry spell from Weeks 2-4. Unfortunately, the Seahawks are rolling into town with a defense that is playing like rabid dogs. Seattle's vaunted secondary has allowed only three wide receivers into the end zone this year -- Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu. The smallest of that trio is Sanu, who checks in at a chiseled 6-2, 210 and plays with the disposition of a linebacker. For Cooks, who has two catches this year accounting for half his touchdown total and 38% of his yards, it could be a rough week.

Jeremy Maclin, KC at IND

Maclin has not topped 80 yards in a game this season and has been held to less than 50 in consecutive contests despite facing the 32nd and 30th ranked passing defenses. He's failed to find the end zone since Week 1 and it just keeps getting worse for Kansas City's top receiving threat. Vontae Davis continues to be one of the league's premier shutdown corners. Only one opposing No. 1 wideout has found paydirt versus the Colts and none have exceeded 82 yards when Davis has been active.

Tight End

Greg Olsen, CAR vs. AZ

No defense has allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing tight ends than the Cardinals. They're giving up an average of only 26.4 yards per game to the position and while they have played one of the weakest collections of tight ends thus far, they did just pass an impressive litmus test, holding Jimmy Graham to a meager 5.3 yards per target on 10 opportunities.

Delanie Walker, TEN vs. JAC

For all the shortcomings of the Jaguars this season -- and there have been many -- covering tight ends has not been one of them. They still have one of the most athletic linebacker corps in the league, and it's showed, as they've limited tight ends to just 166 yards on 22 catches through six games. And they haven't played total slouches, either. Antonio Gates, Dennis Pitta, Jack Doyle, Dwayne Allen and Zach Miller combined to catch 18 for 119 yards (a pitiful 6.6 yards per catch), with none exceeding 42 yards and only Gates finding the end zone. Walker will be the most athletic tight end they've squared off with, but a scattershot Marcus Mariota and this defense won't make things easy on the veteran.