This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
East Coast Offense - Year 11
It's strange this column is in its 11th year. When I started it, my regular columns Beating the Book and Staff Picks had been going on seven and six years, respectively, and ECO was just a way to get something on the Yahoo Sports' web site. Five years after that agreement expired, I'm still doing it, and it's actually the column on which I spend the most time and energy each week.
This year will be a little different, not so much for you but for me. I'm living in Berlin, Germany until mid-October, then (allegedly) moving to Lisbon, Portugal for nine months, so my NFL game-watching will be different. For starters, the early games start at 7 pm my time (It would be 8 pm after daylight savings in the US, but the move to Portugal will offset that around the time it happens.) That means the late games start at 10 pm, and the Sunday, Monday and Thursday night ones at 2 am. Needless to say, I might be catching up on a lot of them while most of you are asleep.
As for where I'll watch the games, I had this idea I'd pick a different sports bar depending on what city I was in (we'll also be traveling on weekends, next week is Budapest, one week will be London, etc.), take a photo of it and turn this into a travel/fantasy football piece, but the NFL sells the online package for 200 Euros (roughly $223), so it's likely I'll be streaming it from my sofa most of the time. Sorry, I know a travel column would be far more interesting.
In any event, I'm looking forward to the season, even though it's virtually certain to be just as annoying, frustrating and arbitrary as all the previous ones.
Players I don't Own
I'm only in seven leagues this year, thanks to my travels costing me a coveted $1500 spot in the NFFC Classic in Vegas, but that doesn't include six MFLs, one League of Leagues team I'm sharing with Yahoo's Dalton Del Don, one Yahoo League I'm sharing with SXM producer Trevor Ray (he spent $15 on Dion Lewis during that draft after I specifically told him not to), and one Fantrax League also with Trevor. In other words, of the non-best ball season-long leagues, I drafted seven teams, and you can view my portfolio here. Here's who I don't have on any of them:
Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Lamar Miller, Adrian Peterson, Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, LeSean McCoy, Rob Gronkowski, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Sammy Watkins, Amari Cooper, Jordy Nelson, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Jamaal Charles, Randall Cobb and Russell Wilson.
How is it possible none of these players landed on my teams? They fall into two categories: (1) Players I didn't get due to draft/auction circumstances; and (2) Players of whom I wanted no part at anything close to their ADPs.
The first category players are Brown, Gurley, Elliott, Evans, McCoy, Cooper and Wilson. I like all of them, and I expect them to have good seasons, though obviously I hope they do not.
But I have a bad vibe about Jones, health-wise, I see the upside with Miller, but wonder whether he can handle a heavy workload and why the Dolphins ditched him, don't like Peterson's lack of pass-catching or his mileage and age, think Hopkins was mostly a volume guy last year, feel Gronk is an injury risk and a low-upside PPR play, especially without Tom Brady for four games, feel the same way about Bryant as I do Gronk, expect regression from Marshall (and his QB), don't trust Watkins' health (remember Bryant's foot injury last year), don't trust Nelson to be the same guy at age 31, coming off the ACL, don't like Newton's much harder schedule, don't like buying Rodgers at roughly full price after last year, don't trust Charles to get 200 carries and don't know if Cobb is any good after last year.
Despite all the things I got wrong last year, my Category 2 list was pretty good.
Of course, it's easier to predict failure than success. There are a number of reasons for it, but the simplest explanation is the pool of drafted players in the aggregate always fail to live up to ADP. Because undrafted players wind up in the top 100, 50 and occasionally 20 every year, they necessarily displace those whose ADPs put them there during the preseason. Put differently, the top-100 by ADP can never fill the entire top-100 by season-ending rankings.
Because the pool of drafted players fails to live up to ADP in the aggregate, any particular player is on average a bad bet to live up to his particular one. As such picking players who fail is easier than picking players who succeed.
That said, I'm quite sure at least two of the players I intentionally passed on (Group 2) will have monster seasons. But if I knew who they were, I obviously wouldn't have passed on them.
20 Non-Obvious Predictions for 2016
I've done this each of the last few seasons with mixed success. That's another way of saying success mixed with failure or just mixed failure. Here are last year's for point of reference. Remember these are non-obvious, and no amount of mixed failure will deter me from making them in 2017, either.
1. The Giants will be a top-5 fantasy defense.
They were awful last year, but they get back a healthy Jason Pierre Paul for the full year, acquired Olivier Vernon (Pro Football Focus graded him like J.J. Watt over the second half, and Vernon's been a monster this preseason), added Damon Harrison to the interior line, drafted cornerback Eli Apple (strong camp) in the first round and signed (and overpaid) cornerback Janoris Jenkins. They also face Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott for three games and newly acquired Vikings QB Sam Bradford in Week 4 who will still be learning the offense.
2. The Buccaneers make the playoffs.
The defense is shaky, but Jameis Winston had a strong debut, and reports on him are excellent this offseason. I expect the offense to be top 10, and the Panthers, having lost Josh Norman and playing a first-place schedule, are likely to slip a good deal.
3. Jameis Winston or Kirk Cousins outscores Drew Brees.
These are my two favorite breakout QBs. I mentioned Winston above, but Cousins has some of the best weapons in the NFL if DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed stay healthy, added a first-round pick to the receiving corps (Josh Doctson) and don't have much of a running game. Brees has drastic home/road splits (nine TD passes, six INT on the road last year), and draws both Denver and Seattle at home. In other words, he'll be an average QB at best in 10 of his 16 games.
4. Frank Gore fails to get 700 rushing yards or seven TDs.
I simply don't get why people are drafting Gore in the top eight rounds, let alone the top six. He's 33 years old and slipped to 3.7 YPC last year, 3.2 YPC in the second half. Yes, the competition for carries is weak in Indy, but I'm pretty sure there are professional athletes of football-playing age vying for carries. Robert Turbin is only 26, ran a 4.42 40 at the combine and goes 5-10, 225, for example. When older backs lose it, they don't get it back. Indy is dumb enough to stick with Gore for a few games, but like they did with Andre Johnson's carcass last year, they'll ditch him once it's crystal clear he's done.
5. Julio Jones is not a top-10 WR.
This sounds more radical than it is as injuries and variance make most players underdogs to finish in the top-10 at their positions. That said, Jones' volume (203 targets) was so high, it assured him a top-five finish even if he weren't as efficient as he was. My reason for taking the under is the constant nagging injuries (already he's had ankle and knee injuries in camp), the way he seems hobbled after every other play and the lack of TDs over the last two years (14 on 366 targets.)
6. Doug Baldwin is not a top-25 WR.
I don't see the volume, red-zone volume or big-play ability. Last year's second half was a fluke.
7. At least two of these players will be top-25 WR:
Dorial Green-Beckham, Nelson Agholor, Phillip Dorsett, Sammie Coates, Devin Funchess, DeVante Parker, Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Chris Conley or Stefon Diggs.
Year 2 is when WR typically break out, and these are all of the prominent ones (except for Amari Cooper who is too obvious.)
8. At least one of the 49ers, Rams, Eagles, Chargers, Jaguars, Titans, Browns or Dolphins will make the playoffs.
This is an easy one as while all are underdogs individually, they're probably favorites collectively.
9. Devonta Freeman will outproduce Adrian Peterson in standard scoring leagues. He'll destroy him in PPR.
For whatever reason, Freeman is being massively discounted relative to last year's RB1-by-a-mile performance. Peterson's lack of receiving skills crushes him in PPR, and Freeman's extra receiving yards are an edge in standard.
10. C.J. Anderson will be a top-seven back for as long as he stays healthy.
11. Blake Bortles will again be a top-seven fantasy QB.
12. Derek Carr will not be a top-15 fantasy QB on a per-game basis (minimum 8 games.)
13. DeAndre Washington will outproduce Latavius Murray in the season's second half.
14. Derrick Henry will outproduce DeMarco Murray in the second half.
15. Christine Michael will outproduce Thomas Rawls.
16. Dorial Green-Beckham will outproduce Tajae Sharpe.
I used these two because Sharpe's surprise emergence likely in part led to Green-Beckham's dump trade. I'm fading the Titans' talent evaluators here.
17. Andrew Luck will outproduce Aaron Rodgers for fantasy purposes.
18. Markus Wheaton will be a top-25 PPR receiver.
With Le'Veon Bell out three games, Ladarius Green at least six and Sammie Coates not stepping up, Wheaton is the clear No. 2 target in a pass-happy offense.
19. Colin Kaepernick will outproduce Blaine Gabbert.
The protest has drawn more heat to him than playing ever could. When Gabbert fails, Kaepernick will step in and not be rattled. Plus, his running is the perfect fit for Chip Kelly's offense.
20. Some of these predictions will turn out to be wrong.
If you enjoy this column, feel free to check out the weekly podcast of the same name.
