East Coast Offense: Are the Vikings for Real?

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

The Vikings are 18-3 against the spread in their last 21 games, something that rarely happens. While there are 32 teams in the league, and you'd expect some team to be the best over that span, rarely is a team that good. The Bengals (13-6-2 over that stretch) are the next best, a full four games back. In 2014, the best ATS team was the Cardinals at 11-5, in 2013 the Seahawks at 11-5, in 2012, the Colts, Seahawks, Rams and Redskins, all 11-5.

The reason teams can go 15-1 straight up like the Panthers last year but so rarely win more than 11 against the spread is as a team covers, the bar typically gets raised. When you exceed expectations, new harder-to-meet ones are created. Eventually expectations get so high, the team will fail no matter how good it is. The best example is the 2007 Patriots who blew everyone out so completely that by mid-season the were favored by 23 points in a game. As a result, despite going 16-0 staight up (and 8-0 ATS in the first half of the year), they went only 2-6 ATS in the second.

So how are the Vikings able to exceed expectations nearly every week? It seems in their case, Vegas is not raising the bar very much each time they cover. For example, Minnesota was favored by only six points at home against a Texans team missing the league's best defensive player and struggling offensively. You'd think an undefeated team at home that covers every week would be getting more than a TD in that spot, but it wasn't the case. That means some (most likely the sharp bettors) aren't buying their success, probably because the underlying metrics that typically portend winning games and covering spreads must not be especially strong. Looking at yards per play*, the Vikings are 28th on offense at 4.9, behind even the Jaguars. Of course, they're first on defense at 4.4 YPP, but the difference of .5 is relatively modest.

Does that mean it's time to fade the Vikings every week until their luck runs out? I would argue against that. For starters, until the point spreads reflect an unduly inflated perception of the team, their "luck" running out will merely make them fairly valued, i.e., there's no edge in fading something that never got overvalued in the first place. Second, when a team doesn't conform to the usual predictive metrics, there are always two possibilities: (1) They're lucky (or unlucky); and (2) The usual metrics are missing something about them. Let's not confuse the model with reality and decide in advance (1) is the only possible answer. Perhaps the Vikings are consistently better on special teams. Perhaps the small net per-play advantage is magnified when both numbers are low, i.e., the percentage gain (or ratio) is bigger in their case. Perhaps the way in which the offensive and defensive plays gains are distributed is especially favorable given their style of play. Even if we cannot pinpoint the reason, the greater the magnitude of the outlier, the greater the chance there is a reason other than dumb luck.

In a world where our predictive metrics are getting more accurate and where information based on them is more available to the public, it's getting harder to beat the market with research and knowledge. But outliers like the Vikings offer a useful conceptual alternative. While everyone is betting on the rule, we can pick our spots and locate the exceptions. While everyone is studying the known, we can profit from correctly discerning what's missing from our knowledge. There are two ways to go about this: Drill down ever more deeply to eke out incremental edges across the board, or figure out the odd spots where across-the-board generalizations are entirely off base.

* This obviously isn't the only metric relevant to setting lines or predicting future outcomes, but it's an important one and is useful for the sake of this example.

The Fake Odell Beckham Controversy

I've ranted about Ben McAdoo every week, so I won't go into detail here. If you want the NSFW version, click here and forward to about nine minutes in. But I do want to discuss the absurd controversy over Beckham's allegedy "out of control" emotions.

Essentially, after Beckham torched cornerback Josh Norman in Week 3, he got upset as the Giants coughed up the game. Beckham smashed the kicking net with his helmet, and it bounced up and hit him in the face. (It did not result in a penalty or affect the game.) After the game, McAdoo said something about Beckham needing to control his emotions better, which was dumb. I'll cut him some slack for once, and assume it was a rookie coach saying something he thought a coach should say rather than moronically intending to throw his best player, who had a great game against an All-Pro corner, under the bus.

The following game, Beckham had a bad showing against the Vikings and got flagged for taunting by a referee far away from the incident, while two nearby refs did nothing. This was after Xavier Rhodes hit him late out of bounds. Setting aside the stupidity of taunting penalties in the NFL, it's likely Beckham should not have been flagged even by those easily-triggered standards. Of course, we had blowhards like Mike Francesa feigning outrage that Beckham needed to be controlled, and beat writers predictably fanning the flames to draw traffic to their typically milquetoast columns.

At that point, McAdoo should have protected his player by admitting he made a mistake, saying Beckham works his tail off and is an elite receiver in large part because of his emotions. And that barking at a DB after a late hit is normal behavior and should not have been flagged, especially from a remote official. To his credit McAdoo didn't take the bait from Francesa, but he never owned the error of going public in the first place. Moreover, Eli Manning, who was headed down the Matt Hasselbeck career path from 2012 through Week 5 of 2014, i.e., one-time franchise QB turned journeyman backup, before Beckham came on the scene, foolishly piled on. Never mind Beckham is the one who not only saved him from that fate, but is ensuring he winds up in Canton.

Our sports media apparently cannot tell the difference between the real and the trivial. Beckham is not some underachieving player with all the talent in the world who can't get past his character issues. He's the greatest first-two-years receiver in NFL history. And he isn't some clubhouse cancer who fails to get along with teammates, gets violent off the field or gets drunk and wraps his car around a tree. The entire fake controversy which went away after one uneventful game where he jokingly hugged the kicking net was based on nothing solid except his one transgression against Norman last December for which he was rightly suspended and from which every rational person had moved on.

The NFL and the media therefore aren't on Beckham's case because he's a bad guy - quite the contrary. They're not worried he's actually out of control or a bad influence or any of the nonsense given to justify the absurd coverage and draconian fines and penalties. In my opinion, they simply want to bring players to heel, to control them. It's why the penalties for smoking weed are as severe as those for domestic violence - the former player is flouting the league's authority, the latter merely harming another human being. This desire for control impels them to perpetrate the farce that a generational talent performing at the top of his game is a problem that needs to be fixed rather than one of the increasingly few things that are genuinely great about their league.

Put differently - if it were Beckham on that boat instead of Jose Fernandez two weeks ago, these same reporters would be waxing poetic (to the meager extent their writing abilities allow) about the joy with which he played the game. And yet, with Beckham's abilities still intact for fleeting span of time that constitutes an NFL career, they're happy to destroy it.

They're Murdering People - Part 5

I've written in the past how instant replay is destroying our lives, but the endless one in Oakland Sunday took it to a new level, so I'll reprise my argument. If the typical replay costs the viewer two minutes of his life, and five million people are watching a given game, that means 10 million collective minutes, i.e., 19 years are wasted. But this replay went on for about 10 minutes, so we're talking 95 years, i.e., a full life span. Basically they killed someone.

I'd like to be able to rant about how worthless it all was and how they got the call wrong anyway, but honestly I don't know, and I don't want to know. That's because I did not watch it, as I make it a policy to turn the channel or mute it in the case of a standadlone game. I have no desire to acquire a degree in the arcane, half-baked and often arbitrary body of law that constitutes the NFL rule book. I have no desire to see those with such degrees present their cases to the public, in many cases incorrectly and using specious logic, and I don't care to watch an obnoxious advertisement for whatever substandard product or service is paying for this absurdity. Just let me know the result and when the next play is about to start.

Week 5 NFL Observations

•Jacquizz Rodgers looked like a poor man's Devonta Freeman, breaking tackles and changing directions on the minority of carries I watched. (He was 30 for 101, so I'm sure there were a lot of duds.) He's maybe a quarter-step less quick and explosive, but could retain the third-down role even when Doug Martin comes back with Charles Sims out for the year. Just realize Rodgers is a far less efficient receiver than Sims, and Martin might wind up seeing all three downs.

•Cameron Artis-Payne ran well, but keep in mind that short TD would have been Cam Newton's.

•Greg Olsen is usually steady-Eddie, but with Anderson at QB, he blew up for 170 yards. Kelvin Benjamin was the only other receiver to see more than four targets. In fact, of Anderson's 28 attempts, 22 went to those two players.

•Mike Evans didn't do much on 12 targets before his 26-yard TD catch. He's been fine fantasy-wise, thanks to the volume (62 targets), but he and Jameis Winston haven't really clicked yet.

• Winston is short of weapons. With Jackson looking done, Austin Seferian-Jenkins gone and Sims out, it's Evans or bust. Rodgers, Adam Humphries and Cameron Brate aren't secondary options, they're tertiary ones at best.

• What's wrong with Lavonte David? I've got him in an IDP league, and five tackles per week isn't cutting it.

• Every Giants game is more or less the same: predictable and ineffective running on 1st-and-10, lots of short throws, not much scoring. This one was worse than usual because Eli Manning played his worst game of the year, getting only 5.1 YPA against a depleted Packers secondary, taking three sacks and losing a fumble. His only TD was on a great catch by Odell Beckham in garbage time, and he missed a wide open Will Tye on what should have been a huge play.

• The Giants defense played well. While Aaron Rodgers had all day to throw and was not sacked, he threw two picks and managed only 5.8 YPA. The Packers biggest play from scrimmage was only 29 yards.

•Randall Cobb was effective, making plays all over the field and running after the catch. Same with Davante Adams. Jordy Nelson struggled to get open, but got his fifth TD catch in four games.

• Beckham had a great TD catch, but otherwise didn't do much. The box score has him at 12 targets, but it seemed like he had about seven or eight catchable ones. Somehow even when the Giants are pass heavy and throwing to Beckham, it's still small ball, even against the league's worst pass defenses.

•Eddie Lacy looked powerful and spry before leaving in the third quarter with an ankle injury. I suppose James Starks will get some FAAB bids this week.

•Josh Brown should have a huge year in this play-for-the-field-goal style offense.

•Tom Brady is once again a top-three QB, possibly No. 1.

•James White finally has a little value until/unless Dion Lewis returns, as Brady will target him out of the backfield more, and there will be more to go around generally.

•Martellus Bennett got the TDs, but Rob Gronkowski is completely back with 109 yards on seven targets.

•Chris Hogan should occupy the Brandon LaFell role from a couple years ago – the downfield threat opposite Julian Edelman.

• With Cody Kessler hurt, the Browns turned to Charlie Whitehurst, but honestly what's the point? Just put Terrelle Pryor in and let us enjoy it.

• As Eagles fans in my Twitter feed pointed out, the Lions had two penalties for 18 yards and the Eagles 14 for 111, some of which were questionable.

•Darren Sproles looks the same at 33 as he did at 25. Ryan Mathews led the team with 11 carries, and Wendell Smallwood had none.

•Carson Wentz finally threw a pick on the team's final drive, but he played well again with 7.2 YPA and two TD throws despite the unfavorable treatment by the refs.

•Theo Riddick ran more effectively and caught two TDs. With Dwayne Washington banged up and Zach Zenner doing nothing, Riddick is their starting back.

• The Eagles spread the ball around so evenly, it's impossible to guess which receiver might have a big game. Dorial-Green Beckham had an end-zone target and is part of the game plan, but neither he (nor anyone else) will break out with seven players seeing at least three targets. Oddly, Nelson Agholor led the team with seven, but had only two catches for 27 yards.

• The Lions targets were split four ways between the three wideouts and Riddick. Golden Tate made an appearance on the final drive, but Marvin Jones scored the non-Riddick TD.

•Brian Hoyer continues to play well but has neglected Alshon Jeffery (six targets, five catches, 77 yards.) That would be a solid day normally, but Hoyer threw for 397 yards, 130 of which went to Cameron Meredith. (Meredith is 6-3, and runs a 4.42 40, so he's worth picking up even if he doesn't get to face the Colts every week.) With Hoyer, Zach Miller is also a top-10 TE.

• With five field goals Sunday, two of which were from 50-plus, Adam Vinatieri is enjoying a Barry Bondsian career arc. He's now made five 50 yarders in five games at age 44. Even when he was winning Super Bowls in his prime, he wasn't known for having a particularly strong leg. In fact, over the last 21 games he's made more 50 yarders than he did during his first 12 seasons (1996-2007.) From 2012 through five weeks of 2016, he's made 20 such kicks. From 1996-2011, he made only 12.

• It was a weak defense, but Jordan Howard destroyed it. He also caught three passes for 45 yards and a TD for good measure. He's a top-10 back.

•Andrew Luck played well, but took five more sacks. He won't hold up at this pace.

•T.Y. Hilton is subject to Luck's health risk, but otherwise is a top-10 receiver. Phillip Dorsett is droppable.

•Marcus Mariota finally had a good fantasy game with a rushing TD and three passing ones. He still managed only 5.6 YPA, has bad receivers and plays in a run-heavy offense, so it's hard to get excited. Delanie Walker is his only usable target.

•Jay Ajayi is the Dolphins starter for now, but as usual he's wasn't especially impressive.

•Ryan Tannehill got 10.2 YPA, zero TDs and two picks. That's hard to do unless you also take six sacks and only attempt 18 passes. DeVante Parker could be a monster if he played with even a decent QB.

• The Vikings are 18-3 against the spread in their last 21, but Vegas never adjusts. This game went off at only six points despite the Texans missing J.J. Watt and the game being in Minnesota. Yes, they got another special teams TD, but maybe they're doing something the metrics aren't picking up.

• With Stefon Diggs down, Adam Thielen picked up the slack without a problem. He's 6-2, 200 and ran a 4.45 40, so it might not be a fluke.

•Jerick McKinnon saw 20 carries, but was completely stuffed. Matt Asiata got the goal-line looks and did better as a receiver.

• With Eric Decker out, Brandon Marshall (15 targets) was the only game in town. Quincy Enunwa saw seven, and no other wideout saw more than two.

•Bilal Powell had eight targets, Matt Forte only two. Forte has only eight catches the last four games.

•Sammie Coates did his best Martavis Bryant impression with two TDs, 139 yards and a couple drops. Coates, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown each had 11 targets. Shockingly, Coates already has six catches of 40-plus yards on only 31 targets. Antonio Brown (193 targets) and Odell Beckham (158 targets) tied for the league lead last year with eight.

• The Jets secondary is among the league's worst – they're in Saints territory now.

• Bell went nine for 78 and is basically a possession receiver and a full-time running back.

• Brown is having a surprisingly pedestrian year by his standards, but is still averaging 90 yards and a TD through five games, prorating to 119 catches for 1,440 yards and 16 scores. If he has a huge game against the Dolphins next week, he'll be back on his insane pace of the last two years, only with more TDs.

•DeAngelo Williams has to be the only back in the modern NFL that goes from heaviest usage in the league to no usage whatsoever once another player comes back from injury.

• Nobody did anything in the Redskins-Ravens game. Terrance West had 95 yards on only 11 carries, but for some reason the Ravens stopped feeding him. And Pierre Garcon got his usual 56 yards, this time with a score.

• The Falcons had a great game plan in Denver, attacking the middle with their speedy backs in the passing game and running the ball. The result was an amazing 9.5 YPA for Matt Ryan and an easy win against arguably the league's best defense.

•Tevin Coleman has turned into their top receiver out of the backfield, but Devonta Freeman is firmly the starter, goal line back and is a competent receiver in his own right.

•Julio Jones' game logs from Weeks 3-5:

•Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders appeared to miss Trevor Siemian, but both still got something, thanks to Denver's narrow tree.

• I'm not sure how much of it was Paxton Lynch, but Atlanta's defense looked pretty good.

• I take back what I said last week about Ezekiel Elliott not looking especially talented. He moves very quickly for a big back, and it doesn't hurt that he's always running through canyonesque holes.

•Brandon LaFell is the team's clear No. 2, and with Tyler Eifert still out, that means something,

•Dak Prescott might be this year's Russell Wilson. He still hasn't thrown a pick, and you have to wonder whether Tony Romo ever gets his job back.

• Mike McCoy has to go. Opting for a field goal on 4th-and-inches from the 18-yard line down three with 2:07 left is terrible. Yes, if you hit it you tie the game, but then Oakland has two minutes to get into field-goal range to beat you. If you make the first down, you either score the TD and win and you run the clock down and ensure a FG sends it to overtime. Put differently, the chances of getting stuffed are smaller than the chances of getting beat on the ensuing drive. Moreover, the best you can do if you make the FG is tie, and if you convert, you actually might win. It serves them right that the snap was botched, and they lost anyway.

•Philip Rivers got 12.0 YPA. He deserves better than this franchise.

• I say this every week, and I'll say it again: I don't care how many TDs Melvin Gordon scores – he's not good. He fumbled to let the Raiders take the lead, and he couldn't get a yard on third and one. He's the worst "closer" in the game.

•Tyrell Williams is the Chargers best receiver. I'm not sure why they don't target him more. Travis Benjamin is still the "No. 1" for now, and Dontrelle Inman's big game last week looks like a fluke.

•Derek Carr finally had a reasonably efficient day (7.9 YPA) because he targeted Amari Cooper (12) more than Michael Crabtree (7). I wouldn't bank on that continuing, but it would be good for the Raiders if it did.

• None of the Raiders running backs stood out.

• Jeff Fisher opted for a field goal (and the announcers were supportive of the decision) down seven at the four yard line with six minutes left. The Rams kicked off, forced the Bills to punt, got the ball back, and didn't go anywhere. So on 4th-and-5 at his own 23 with 3:47 left, Fisher fakes the punt! Instead of trying for a game-tying score from four-yards out with their first-team offense, they decide Bradley Marquez getting five yards on the fake punt simply to extend the drive (still deep in their own end) was the better play. If Fisher trusted his defense so much, why not go for it, and if you get stuffed, you have the Bills pinned back with plenty of time to get the ball back in good field position and score? If he didn't trust his offense to get four yards on one play, why would he trust it to make it down the field on a subsequent drive? He's obviously just checked out with respect to strategy. He's been at it so long with mostly break-even results, he's like a drunk at the blackjack table at 3 am, hitting on 16 against a nine on one hand, sticking on 14 against a 10 on another. There's no rhyme or reason, just whatever he feels at the moment. Whether he gets it right or wrong is totally random.

• The Bills receiving corps is a wasteland. The Rams might not be if they had a competent QB.

•LeSean McCoy looked like the 25-year old version of himself. He only caught two passes for eight yards, however.

•Todd Gurley ran hard, but they have to get Case Keenum out of there. Gurley also caught three more passes for 36 yards.

• How awful must Jared Goff look in practice for Keenum still to be starting?

• I tweet a lot during NFL Sundays, and I get a little back and forth going with my followers, but for the most part few people are especially interested in what I'm saying. But I retweeted this photo (NSFW) taken by RotoWire's business guy Ken Crites at the Browns game, and my mentions went crazy all day.