This article is part of our Payne's Perspective series.
This last week marked the beginning of free agency in the NFL and there were plenty of moves. Here are some thoughts on the more notable ones and other musings from the past week.
Ladarius Green will eat this year: Veteran Heath Miller announced his retirement at the end of February, leaving a big hole at tight end for the Steelers. On top of being a sure-handed safety valve for Ben Roethlisberger, the big tight end was an excellent blocker and helped hold the offensive line together when they were hit by injuries. Instead of addressing the position in the draft (it's not a great year for tight ends) the Steelers went out and signed Green, who was viewed as a sleeper heading into this season with Antonio Gates getting older and Green entering his prime. He slides into an extremely favorable fantasy position with the Steelers, who threw for the third-most passing yards last season, even with Roethlisberger missing four games.
Miller has received between 78-101 targets over the last four seasons, so it's possible Green could see 100 targets right away. I called him a top-8 fantasy tight end and it's possible that's not high enough given that Martavis Bryant is suspended for at least a year.
The Houston Texans had no problem spending Bob McNair's money: The Texans went out and spent $98 million on quarterback Brock Osweiler and running back Lamar Miller. As with almost every football deal, not all of that money is
This last week marked the beginning of free agency in the NFL and there were plenty of moves. Here are some thoughts on the more notable ones and other musings from the past week.
Ladarius Green will eat this year: Veteran Heath Miller announced his retirement at the end of February, leaving a big hole at tight end for the Steelers. On top of being a sure-handed safety valve for Ben Roethlisberger, the big tight end was an excellent blocker and helped hold the offensive line together when they were hit by injuries. Instead of addressing the position in the draft (it's not a great year for tight ends) the Steelers went out and signed Green, who was viewed as a sleeper heading into this season with Antonio Gates getting older and Green entering his prime. He slides into an extremely favorable fantasy position with the Steelers, who threw for the third-most passing yards last season, even with Roethlisberger missing four games.
Miller has received between 78-101 targets over the last four seasons, so it's possible Green could see 100 targets right away. I called him a top-8 fantasy tight end and it's possible that's not high enough given that Martavis Bryant is suspended for at least a year.
The Houston Texans had no problem spending Bob McNair's money: The Texans went out and spent $98 million on quarterback Brock Osweiler and running back Lamar Miller. As with almost every football deal, not all of that money is guaranteed, though Osweiler did get $37 million of his $76 million guaranteed. That seems like a lot of money to give a quarterback who went 5-2 but was on a team with a historically good defense.
Outside of DeAndre Hopkins there isn't a lot to get excited about in the way of weapons for Osweiler, and the Texans will likely employ a run-heavy system. As a result, I don't see much fantasy value for Osweiler and I'd think there are better No. 2 quarterbacks to have stashed on your bench. On the other side is Miller, who should see an increase in fantasy production. It seemed like Miami did everything in their power to not give him a heavy workload (he only got 20 carries once) despite averaging 4.5 and 5.1 yards per carry over the last two seasons, respectively. While there's concern that a heavier workload could open Miller up to a potential injury, he hasn't missed a game in the last three seasons. With the departure of Arian Foster there should be plenty of opportunities for Miller to put together a career-year.
DeMarco Murray is primed for a bounce-back season: After "taking a year off in Philadelphia," Murray was dealt to the Titans who were in dire need of a legitimate No. 1 running back. It's not a stretch to say Murray should bounce back after totaling only 702 yards and six scores in Philly, but he's not going to approach the gaudy 2014 numbers he put up in Dallas. Still, the Titans' offense just got a lot more interesting considering Marcus Mariota should continue to develop and he has a couple of high-upside wide receivers in Dorial Green-Beckham and Kendall Wright. Unlike a lot of teams who are going to employ timeshares, Murray should easily lead the Tennessee backfield and get 15-20 touches per game. Look for a line from him along the lines of 250 carries, 1,100 rushing yards and nine scores if the Titans beef up their offensive line.
Chris Ivory is now a Jacksonville Jaguar: The signing of Ivory and the money he got ($10 million guaranteed) suggests he'll be the lead back for the Jaguars and they don't see T.J. Yeldon capable of being a feature, three-down runner. This appears to be a timeshare with Ivory handling most of the first and second down work and Yeldon occasionally spelling and probably handling third-down duties. Ivory is coming off his first 1,000-yard season and caught a career-best 30 balls. He should be in line to hit those marks again this season and should handle all of the goal-line work for an offense on the rise.
Matt Forte will be wearing green this season: The versatile running back signed a three-year deal with the Jets and will replace the aforementioned Ivory. The Jets also signed Khiry Robinson, giving them three options in their backfield (along with Forte and Bilal Powell). Forte should get the most touches of the trio, though it's worth noting he's on the wrong side of 30 and only averaged 4.1 and 3.9 yards per carry over his last two seasons, respectively, in Chicago. It seems safe to say Forte is no longer a top-10 player at the position and he'll likely only cost a mid-round pick in fantasy draft this season.
It was a good week to be a Bengals' wide receiver: Both Marvin Jones (Lions) and Mohamed Sanu (Falcons) signed with other teams and received $40 million and $32.5 million contracts, respectively. The money sounds nice but Sanu and, maybe, Jones might not end up as the top receiving targets for their new teams. Golden Tate has rapport and familiarity with Matthew Stafford and has over 2,000 receiving yards the last two seasons. Sanu should slot into the No. 2 receiving spot for the Falcons, with Julio Jones being the obvious No. 1. Remember that Roddy White was released at the beginning of the month and looked like a shadow of his former self all last season; his fantasy value, if he ends up somewhere, will be very low.
Neither player here has had more than 816 receiving yards in a season and the most notable stat between the two is that Jones had 10 receiving touchdowns two seasons ago. Both should be held in greater regard than they have in the past heading into drafts but there's no guarantee they suddenly become No. 1 options for fantasy teams. Don't be surprised if T.J. Houshmandzadeh or Chad Johnson sign with a team this coming week. Probably the Raiders.
Kelvin Benjamin is expected to be 100 percent at the start of training camp: Benjamin is going to be one of my favorite targets next season. It's easy to forget he had an outstanding rookie campaign, finishing with over 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns. Ted Ginn had 739 receiving yards and, more importantly, 10 touchdowns, showing what Cam Newton can do as a passer. Benjamin clearly has more talent than Ginn and should be in line for a big season. Take him at the discount he'll come in at after sitting out the 2015 season.
Why would anyone want to be the Browns' quarterback this season? In a surprise to no one, Johnny Manziel was released this week and should be able to catch on somewhere as a backup (possibly Dallas?). While Josh McCown is still on the payroll, the bigger question will be the offensive line. The Browns lost starting center Alex Mack and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz to free agency, leaving big holes in their offensive line. The Browns are rumored to be in talks with the 49ers about acquiring Colin Kaepernick (who head coach Hue Jackson loves) but other teams like the Super Bowl champion Broncos could be a more attractive landing spot for Kaepernick. The return of Josh Gordon will be helpful and clearly outweighs the loss of speedster Travis Benjamin, who signed with the Chargers.
