DFS Football 101: Analyzing Cash-Game Contests

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Updated on September 25, 2017 5:12PM EST

The last two weeks, I discussed my "Cash Game System," which consisted of guidelines for each position and how to approach them in cash games. This week, I review how to look at your cash game contests after they are completed and what you can learn from them.

I took a 100-man, 50/50 contest from Week 2 on FanDuel to review. You have to do this manually on FanDuel, but on DraftKings you can download the CSV file in the contest and get it automatically. One of the things you will notice on the ownership percentages is that there are only about three players at each position that collectively cover the majority. This goes into the strategy I went over in that you want to create a cheat sheet using my system and have a very limited player pool to select from when building lineups.

How do you know the players that will be heavily owned each week? Who will be the "chalk?" Well, Vegas totals will drive a big piece of it, so looking at the totals for the game and the implied team totals will tell you that. Also, any backup player that is now in a starting role will automatically become a favored play because it allows you to pay up for the more known commodities. Lastly, the opposing team defense versus the position will also determine who are the highest-owned players in a given week. For example, the Falcons have been scorched by opposing running backs who catch the ball, so a player like Theo Riddick would have a lot more interest in Week 3.

Let's look at the percentages owned by position:

QUARTERBACK

PLAYER	TEAM	% OWNED	SALARY	SCORE	VALUE
Matt Ryan	ATL	34	8200	14.9	1.8
Tom Brady	NE	23	9200	30.8	3.3
Aaron Rodgers	GB	12	9100	19.5	2.1
Jameis Winston	TB	6	7800	12.5	1.6
Philip Rivers	LAC	5	7000	17.2	2.5
Derek Carr	OAK	5	8300	21.2	2.6
Carson Palmer	ARI	3	7500	16.9	2.3
DeShone Kizer	CLE	2	6800	4.9	0.7
Cam Newton	CAR	2	7800	11.8	1.5
Russell Wilson	SEA	2	8100	15.3	1.9
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	2	8000	17.5	2.2
Case Keenum	MIN	1	6000	6.7	1.1
Dak Prescott	DAL	1	7700	17.9	2.3
Drew Brees	NO	1	8700	22.2	2.6
Sam Bradford	MIN	1	7100	—	—

Three quarterbacks made up the chalk in Week 2 (69%) – Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers. Ryan and Rodgers were in the same game, but Rodgers was dealing with the offensive line injuries which I think impacted his lower ownership. Tom Brady was in New Orleans in one of the highest projected scoring games of the week. The reason Ryan was higher than Brady was the $1,000 difference in price. It is a lot harder to build a cash-game lineup with a $9,200 quarterback. Brady was on the majority of the winning rosters and helped carry those teams.

You will find some players that swear paying down at quarterback is the right move in cash games on FanDuel. I'm not one of them. I'm going to gravitate to the top tier unless there is just one player that is in the mid-tier and significantly mispriced, but I usually never go below $7,500.

RUNNING BACK

PLAYER	TEAM	% OWNED	SALARY	SCORE	VALUE
Melvin Gordon	LAC	68	7600	17.3	2.3
Ty Montgomery	GB	67	6500	26.0	4.0
Marshawn Lynch	OAK	9	7200	11.4	1.6
Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	8	8700	4.2	0.5
Kareem Hunt	KC	8	7800	24.4	3.1
Le'Veon Bell	PIT	7	9000	11.1	1.2
Leonard Fournette	JAC	5	7600	13.1	1.7
Mike Gillislee	NE	4	6700	12.9	1.9
Tarik Cohen	CHI	4	5400	8.8	1.6
Todd Gurley	LAR	3	8900	25.1	2.8
Dalvin Cook	MIN	3	6700	7.4	1.1
LeSean McCoy	BUF	2	8600	7.3	0.8
Jacquizz Rodgers	TB	2	6600	12.7	1.9
LeGarrette Blount	PHI	2	6300	0.5	0.1
Rob Kelley	WAS	2	5600	7.8	1.4
Jay Ajayi	MIA	1	7900	13.6	1.7
Bilal Powell	NYJ	1	6400	1.3	0.2
Mark Ingram	NO	1	6200	9.6	1.5
Kerwynn Williams	ARI	1	6100	2.2	0.4
James White	NE	1	5700	13.6	2.4
Terrance West	BAL	1	6600	11.5	1.7

With David Johnson injured and Le'Veon Bell both expensive and coming off a bad week, the chalk gravitated to two players that were in the mid-tier pricing. Gordon and Montgomery were in good spots but also projected to get at least 20 touches. Once Jordy Nelson went down, Montgomery got a ton of work in the passing game. Both hit value and if you did not have them, you probably lost. The only other backs that hit value were Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley.

WIDE RECEIVER

PLAYER	TEAM	% OWNED	SALARY	SCORE	VALUE
Julio Jones	ATL	61	8800	13.3	1.5
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	48	6600	3.6	0.5
Brandin Cooks	NE	27	7900	5.3	0.7
Chris Hogan	NE	21	6200	16.3	2.6
Tyreek Hill	KC	17	7200	6.9	1.0
Keenan Allen	LAC	13	7100	14.5	2.0
Jordy Nelson	GB	13	8100	0	0
Adam Thielen	MIN	11	5800	4.9	0.8
Antonio Brown	PIT	9	9400	8.7	0.9
Amari Cooper	OAK	8	7900	5.3	0.7
Terrelle Pryor	WAS	8	6800	4.1	0.6
Randall Cobb	GB	8	6300	10.0	1.6
Cooper Kupp	LAR	7	6500	4.8	0.7
J.J. Nelson	ARI	7	5300	20.5	3.9
Davante Adams	GB	6	6700	19.9	3.0
Stefon Diggs	MIN	6	6500	4.1	0.6
Doug Baldwin	SEA	5	7600	7.4	1.0
Mike Evans	TB	4	8500	18.8	2.2
Kelvin Benjamin	CAR	4	6600	10.7	1.6
DeSean Jackson	TB	3	6700	5.4	0.8
Michael Crabtree	OAK	2	7300	29.0	4.0
Paul Richardson	SEA	2	5200	8.9	1.7
Marqise Lee	JAC	2	5900	11.1	1.9
Sammy Watkins	LAR	1	7600	4.0	0.5
Dez Bryant	DAL	1	7600	15.4	2.0
Jeremy Maclin	BAL	1	6300	11.1	1.8
Martavis Bryant	PIT	1	6200	17.3	2.8
Nelson Agholor	PHI	1	5500	7.4	1.3
DeVante Parker	MIA	1	6400	10.5	1.6
Demaryius Thomas	DEN	1	7000	10.1	1.4

The chalk got destroyed again at the wide receiver position. I rarely spend up for the top tier receivers because they are not as consistent as we saw a couple years ago. There was a point where Antonio Brown was a lock, but no longer. On FanDuel, the sweet spot of receiver has been $6,500-$7,500. It allows you to miss on a player without it killing your whole lineup.

The majority of the 21 percent of teams that had Chris Hogan paired him with Tom Brady, which paid off huge. Also, if you had J.J. Nelson in your lineup, there's a good chance you finished in the top half.

TIGHT END

PLAYER	TEAM	% OWNED	SALARY	SCORE	VALUE
Coby Fleener	NO	40	5300	10.8	2.0
Rob Gronkowski	NE	9	8100	20.6	2.5
Zach Ertz	PHI	8	6100	12.2	2.0
Kyle Rudolph	MIN	7	5500	6.5	1.2
Charles Clay	BUF	6	5200	3.8	0.7
Jimmy Graham	SEA	4	6300	0.6	0.1
Martellus Bennett	GB	4	5800	7.2	1.2
Austin Hooper	ATL	4	5500	1.7	0.3
Cameron Brate	TB	3	5300	3.4	0.6
Travis Kelce	KC	3	6700	20.3	3.0
Jesse James	PIT	2	5400	4.7	0.9
Jared Cook	OAK	2	5100	4.5	0.9
Jordan Reed	WAS	2	6400	7.8	1.2
Zach Miller	CHI	2	4500	7.2	1.6
Jason Witten	DAL	1	5400	20.7	3.8
Delanie Walker	TEN	1	6200	14.2	2.3
Greg Olsen	CAR	1	6500	1.5	0.2
Antonio Gates	LAC	1	5300	8.1	1.5

At tight end, it was pretty much one guy last week, Coby Fleener. With Willie Snead out and Fleener being mispriced, he became the chalk play and paid off just barely at 2x value. Some teams that went with Brady also stacked with Rob Gronkowski, who had a big game.

KICKER

PLAYER	TEAM	% OWNED	SALARY	SCORE	VALUE
Giorgio Tavecchio	OAK	19	4700	9.0	1.9
Phil Dawson	ARI	18	4500	11.0	2.4
Stephen Gostkowski	NE	11	5100	12.0	2.4
Wil Lutz	NO	11	4700	9.0	1.9
Blair Walsh	SEA	8	4600	6.0	1.3
Justin Tucker	BAL	7	5200	6.0	1.2
Matt Bryant	ATL	6	5000	14.0	2.8
Mason Crosby	GB	4	4900	5.0	1.0
Cairo Santos	KC	4	4600	9.0	2.0
Dan Bailey	DAL	3	4800	7.0	1.5
Kai Forbath	MIN	3	4500	4.0	0.9
Dustin Hopkins	WAS	1	4700	10.0	2.1
Adam Vinatieri	IND	1	4700	8.0	1.7
Brandon McManus	DEN	1	4700	6.0	1.3
Nick Folk	TB	1	4600	14.0	3.0
Jason Myers	JAC	1	4600	5.0	1.1
Connor Barth	CHI	1	4500	1.0	0.2

I have one strategy at kicker on FanDuel. Pay down in the $4,500-$4,700 range and look for the best matchup. I want a close game preferably, but a huge home favorite is OK, too. But a closer game with an accurate kicker in that price range is my target. After Week One, it was obvious that Giorgio Tavecchio was going to get a lot of action. Unfortunately, when you have a team that was a 14-point favorite, they end up scoring a lot of touchdowns, so he just didn't get the chance to attempt field goals. Phil Dawson was in a great spot as a seven-point road favorite against the Colts and only $4,500. He was my top kicker on the board in Week 2. Also, you have Gostkowski and Lutz who were in the same game.

D/ST

PLAYER	% OWNED	SALARY	SCORE	VALUE
Ravens	49	4700	17.0	3.6
Cardinals	11	5000	10.0	2.0
Buccaneers	10	4500	19.0	4.2
Chargers	9	4300	3.0	0.7
Steelers	6	4700	8.0	1.7
Raiders	4	5300	9.0	1.7
Panthers	2	5100	10.0	2.0
Cowboys	1	4800	2.0	0.4
Chiefs	1	4500	11.0	2.4
Jaguars	1	4300	-1.0	-0.2
Patriots	1	4300	2.0	0.5
Bears	1	4200	4.0	1.0
Browns	1	4100	6.0	1.5
Seahawks	1	5400	8.0	1.5
Falcons	1	4300	13.0	3.0
Rams	1	4900	2.0	0.4

Much like tight end, D/ST had some major chalk with the Ravens at almost half the field against the Browns. They came through with a big week, so if you didn't have them it was a tough road.

The Cardinals and Bucs hit at least 2x value and paid off. Those three teams accounted for 70 percent of the D/ST ownership.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Michael Rathburn plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: burnnotice, DraftKings: burnnotice, Yahoo: burnnotice, Fantasy Aces: burnnotice, FantasyDraft: burnnotice.