Matchup Edge: Danger for Deshaun

Minnesota vs. Cleveland in London

Open: 37.5 O/U, MIN -7.5
Press time: 38 O/U, MIN -9.5

This should be a beatdown. Cleveland has no conceivable advantages in this game, and it's hard to imagine anything less than Duke Johnson heroics generating any production from scrimmage on their part. As far as pass catchers go, David Njoku seems like the closest thing to a hope.

Minnesota, though, should have success through the air. Stefon Diggs (groin) is back, and him paired with Adam Thielen gives Minnesota two wideouts the Browns can't cover. Particularly since the Minnesota defense should bully the Browns into giving up turnovers and short fields, Kyle Rudolph projects especially well in this matchup, too. It's possible that all three provide useful returns – the Browns are allowing 8.6 YPT to receivers, and 7.1 YPT to tight ends. He probably doesn't have an especially high ceiling, but I think you have to like Case Keenum's chances of posting at least 250 yards and two touchdowns.

It may be tempting to chase Latavius Murray as a heavy favorite in the wake of his breakout game last week, but I would only use him in season-long formats. Jerick McKinnon is still the preferable asset to me, in no small part because he's more active as a pass catcher. But I won't be using McKinnon in DFS, either.

Philadelphia vs. San Francisco

Open: 47.5 O/U, PHI -11.5
Press time: 45.5 O/U, PHI -12.5

Ah, the overmatched rookie quarterback heads on the road to face one of the league's best pass rushes on a rainy day. What could go wrong? Perhaps not everything – the Eagles are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks – but that's largely because they've allowed the most pass attempts. They're only allowing 7.1 YPA, and their passing touchdown percentage allowed of 4.2 ranks 13th-best in the league. I in any case expect this to be a brutal game for C.J. Beathard, and as a result find it difficult to find optimism for Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin.

Carlos Hyde might stay busy enough as a pass catcher to provide some return despite a tough run defense matchup, but he's mostly just a season-long format consideration for me. The Eagles are allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs while surrendering 3.1 yards per carry and 5.9 yards per target.

Assuming the rain isn't too heavy, this is golden matchup for Carson Wentz. The 49ers are allowing 7.9 yards per pass with 12 touchdowns allowed against four interceptions, and that their run defense is generally better than the pass promotes a passing game funnel that should solidify Wentz's volume even if it turns into a blowout. Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor should provide their usual returns, but I love this game as a breakout spot for Alshon Jeffery. His production has lagged as he's gotten used to Wentz, but the talent is almost certainly still there. A progression to the mean has to happen eventually – why not here?

It's difficult to tell which one, but it seems like at least one Philadelphia runner has to provide standout production in this one. They're big home favorites in a game that should be tied up relatively early, and San Francisco's vulnerability at quarterback should specifically result in turnovers and favorable field position for the Eagles offense. Wendell Smallwood is generally my favorite bet since he has a near monopoly on the passing work at running back, but there should be lots of time for LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement to run out in the second half.

Tampa Bay vs. Carolina

Open: 44 O/U, TB -2
Press time: 46 O/U, TB -1.5

It looks like winds ~20 miles per hour may complicate this game somewhat, but there otherwise should be plenty of receivers getting open. The Tampa Bay secondary was garbage to begin with, but they'll also be without corners Brent Grimes, Robert McClain, and Josh Robinson. Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess both should have productive games since Carolina can't run at all right now. Even Ed Dickson has a fine projection against a Buccaneers defense allowing almost eight yards per target to opposing tight ends. With three pass catchers projecting well, it's a great spot for Cam Newton to bounce back from last week's rough game. It certainly helps that Tampa Bay has just seven sacks on the year.

If someone in the Carolina backfield is productive, Christian McCaffrey looks like a better bet than Jonathan Stewart. Perhaps the wind will prevent Newton from throwing downfield as often as usual, funneling a few extra targets McCaffrey's way in the passing game. With a YPC of 3.0 and zero rushing touchdowns, I'm not sure what you can do with Stewart these days.

The return of Luke Kuechly (concussion) makes Doug Martin a tough sell in DFS, though his prominent role makes him a useful asset in season-long contexts. The Panthers have been the third-worst fantasy matchup for running backs this year, even with Kuechly missing a week.

If Carolina shuts down Martin, Jameis Winston might be able to overcome a tough matchup on volume alone. The wind is a concern, but Carolina's corners otherwise can't cover Mike Evans or DeSean Jackson. A Tampa Bay offensive line that ranks seventh in Football Outsiders' pass-blocking rankings should make those Carolina corners cover for a bit longer than they're accustomed, which sets up Jackson and Evans as fine plays in season-long formats and DFS tournaments. If the wind does get to Winston, then Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard might need to step up. Kuechly makes that tough, though – Carolina has barely yielded seven yards per target to tight ends this year.

New Orleans vs. Chicago

Open: 48.5 O/U, NO -7.5
Press time: 47.5 O/U, NO -9.5

As rightfully heavy underdogs, the Bears will presumably need to call eight or more passes in this game. It's hard to be optimistic about the results. Mitchell Trubisky doesn't have a grasp of defenses at this point, and the Saints defense has shown better form in recent weeks. Marshon Lattimore is already an elite corner, not that you'd need one to contain Chicago WR1 Tanner Gentry. There's probably a better projection for tight end Zach Miller, who faces a Saints defense that allowed 18 catches to tight ends for 236 yards and three touchdowns on just 30 targets. The Bears seemed to use Tarik Cohen a bit more often as a wide receiver last week, which can only help the otherwise sluggish offense. Cohen still has PPR utility in season-long leagues, and I think there might be some tournament appeal in DFS as a dome pass catcher.

Jordan Howard is of course the top fantasy asset on the Bears offense, and he should get more leash in a losing effort than most running backs given the shortage of passing options, but there's certainly the risk of him simply getting nowhere despite significant volume. It's not that the Saints run defense is intimidating on its own, but with Trubisky at quarterback they can run blitz more aggressively since the Bears are unlikely to hurt them with the pass.

Even if Chicago's sound defense comes out firing, you have to think they eventually wear down in this setting. When or if that happens, the passing and running games should both get loose for New Orleans. The Chicago corners have played well this year, so it doesn't look like an easy matchup for Michael Thomas or Ted Ginn, but you have to bet on them eventually if you think Brees is going to produce. Willie Snead should significantly change this offense when his workload is restored, and the off chance that it happens here makes him a justifiable tournament pick, I think.

Even if it takes big volume through lopsided time of possession, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara both are fine bets to produce, and not necessarily at each other's expense. With the Bears on implosion watch, this could simply be a case where two good players get a lot of shots at a compromised defense on short fields.

Cincinnati vs. Indianapolis

Open: 41 O/U, CIN -10
Press time: 42 O/U, CIN -10.5

The Bengals are allowing just 6.1 YPA, and to running backs they're allowing only 3.6 yards per carry. A Colts offense that was already struggling to the point of near hopelessness goes on the road to face a defense that might be one of the better ones in the league. T.Y. Hilton can get open against anyone, and maybe Jacoby Brissett will get it to him for a big play or two, but otherwise it's hard to imagine this offense so much as flickering.

Cincinnati's offense, on the other hand, sets up very nicely in every regard. Andy Dalton has an extremely high floor against a defense allowing 9.0 yards per pass, and 9.7 targets to receivers. It would be shocking if A.J. Green didn't have a strong game against a defense like that. Brandon LaFell, John Ross, and Tyler Kroft are all also in play at their respective prices, for me. I feel like at least one pass catcher aside from Green should have a strong game – maybe two – but it's hard to rule any of those three out.

The odds of multiple pass catchers producing go up if Joe Mixon struggles, but it's hard to see that happening. After a strong start to the year, the Colts are now allowing 4.3 yards per carry to running backs, and eight touchdowns to boot. They're also allowing an enormous 8.8 yards per target to running backs. Mixon should be able to pile up big production from scrimmage if he gets the ball. If he gets the ball. His comments following last week's game may provoke a petty punishment from Marvin Lewis.

Buffalo vs. Oakland

Open: 44.5 O/U, BUF -3
Press time: 46 O/U, BUF -2.5

This looks like it should be a second nice game in a row for the Buffalo offense, which is to primarily say Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy. Taylor is significantly better at home, which improves the odds of keeping drives alive and getting McCoy into scoring range. It should be easier than usual for Taylor to do that, because the Raiders will be without safety Karl Joseph, and corners David Amerson and Gareon Conley. It's hard to have any faith in the Buffalo pass catchers, but it seems like at least one of Jordan Matthews, Zay Jones, or Nick O'Leary have to do something.

McCoy gets a shot at a defense allowing 4.1 yards per carry and 7.5 yards per target to running backs, which sets him up for a big game from scrimmage. Le'Veon Bell is probably the only runner I'd rank ahead of McCoy this week, and probably not even by that much.

While Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington are likable enough as prospects and have generally proven productive in the NFL, I don't think you can distinguish the two beyond a coin-flip basis. I also don't like their chances for efficiency all that much given that the Bills are allowing just 3.6 yards per carry and 6.5 yards per target to running backs.

Despite a tough on-paper matchup for Derek Carr and the Oakland passing game against a Buffalo defense that's allowed just five touchdowns versus nine interceptions at 7.0 YPA, I like their chances a fair amount. Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston have shown this Buffalo secondary is beatable if you attack their press coverage deep, especially with good receivers. I consider Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper to be as much, so I think they can both succeed if Oakland's game plan is sound. Jared Cook is also a fine bet to make an impact given that the Bills have allowed 8.5 yards per target to tight ends so far.

Jets vs. Atlanta

Open: 47 O/U, ATL -7
Press time: 44.5 O/U, ATL -6

This game is expected to have the worst weather of the slate, with problematic wind and rain both. That probably hurts the volume of both passing games, even though a a couple players on either side are candidates to produce even if their quarterbacks struggle.

For the Jets that probably is tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, whose low depth of target is offset by his usage and talent, though Robby Anderson would be my second guess before Jermaine Kearse. With a 6-foot-3 frame and standout speed, Anderson at least might make a play on an Atlanta corner crew under 6-feet.

For the Falcons it's of course Julio Jones, whose monstrous run-after-the-catch abilities make him capable of a big game even if the downfield pass isn't there. Otherwise, maybe Austin Hooper is the second-best option against the Jets' rookie safeties.

As far as runners go, you have to like Devonta Freeman against a Jets defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs at 3.9 yards per carry and 6.9 yards per target. It's possible that Tevin Coleman's knee injury limits him enough to give Freeman a few more carries than usual, too. The Jets backfield has a decent amount of talent and a good matchup, but it's hard to work with their current split of roughly 45/40/15 between Matt Forte, Bilal Powell, and Elijah McGuire.

New England vs. Chargers

Open: 49 O/U, NE -6.5
Press time: 48 O/U, NE -7

I'm not really sure what to think of the Chargers defense. They've allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks so far, limiting them to 6.8 YPA, nine touchdowns, and five interceptions. They saw Trevor Siemian twice, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, and Derek Carr returning from a transverse process fracture, so it's hard to tell just how good they are, though they did hold Alex Smith and Carson Wentz to a combined 33-of-52 for 397 yards (7.6 YPA) and three touchdowns. The main concern might be a Chargers pass rush that has 23 sacks in seven games.

If the pass rush doesn't get to Brady too badly, you probably have to give him the advantage at home. Even with a good group of corners, I think Brandin Cooks can get open, and Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola should at least pose a chain-moving threat. Cooks is the second-best bet for big plays behind Gronk, who should be in position for a big game against underwhelming safeties, especially if strong cornerback play pushes the ball away from the receivers.

With Mike Gillislee's prominence steadily decreasing, Dion Lewis' value is on the rise as he gains at Gillislee's expense. It's hard to consider any New England backs other than Lewis or James White at this point, and it's a good spot for Lewis especially if he's the primary runner against a Chargers defense allowing five yards per carry to opposing backs.

The star of the game could very well end up the other notable running back in this matchup, as Melvin Gordon faces off against a Patriots defense allowing 4.8 yards per carry and 8.1 yards per target to running backs. I don't know how to account for his foot issue – I guess it mostly reduces him to a GPP consideration outside of season-long formats – but he has had big games while playing hurt before.

I think Philip Rivers' arm strength has deteriorated to the point that he struggles to throw anywhere but the slot or flats. Which is to say, his season-long trend of almost exclusively throwing to Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon, and tight ends will persist from this point onward. Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin are good receivers capable of making big plays, but they'll have to do it with an over/under of 2.5 targets.

Seattle vs. Houston

Open: 42.5 O/U, SEA -6
Press time:45.5 O/U, SEA -6.5

I have no idea what to make of the politics situation with the Houston organization, but I didn't like any part of the offense in fantasy, anyway. Deshaun Watson is due for a flurry of interceptions if he doesn't get more careful with the ball, and I don't like the chances of the running game bailing him out.

The Houston defense is a tough on-paper matchup for the Seattle offense, though, and the Seahawks can't run on anybody right now, so I would expect this game to be low-scoring initially. I think Watson interceptions will eventually give Russell Wilson short enough fields to lead them to points, and I think Doug Baldwin is playing well enough this year that you don't find this matchup intimidating for him in any context. Jimmy Graham might be the next best bet to score, but Tyler Lockett is otherwise a pretty good bet for usage. The Seahawks seemed to make a specific effort to get him the ball last week, and there's usage up for grabs as long as the running game is returning a zero.

Washington vs. Dallas

Open: 50.5 O/U, WAS -1.5
Press time: 47.5 O/U, DAL -2

Kirk Cousins is a good quarterback who's made it work this year despite less than ideal conditions, so you'd be surprised if he had a dud in a home game against a middling Dallas pass defense, but I do find this setting a bit concerning for him. Center Spencer Long is out, right guard Brandon Scherff missed practice all week with knee and back issues, left tackle Trent Williams is questionable after not practicing all week on a bum knee that needs offseason surgery, and right tackle Morgan Moses is questionable with both of his ankles sprained. The Dallas defense isn't fearsome, but defensive linemen David Irving and Demarcus Lawrence absolutely are.

If Cousins is able to withstand the Dallas pass rush, his main targets figure to be Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson. While the Dallas defense has allowed eight touchdowns to wide receivers in six games, they're allowing just 6.7 yards per target so far. With an incoherent and otherwise struggling rotation of receivers, I don't see the reason to project a big game for any Washington wideouts. Jamison Crowder may be the best option for PPR, while Josh Doctson is the only one other than Terrelle Pryor with a hint of playmaking skill, but the latter appears to be on the way out.

No matter if Cousins struggles, I like this setup for Thompson. He should be the team's main ballcarrier, and he might get double-digit targets if the offensive line struggles.

For Dallas, things should run about as usual, with some semblance of overall competence reliably channeled primarily through Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten. That it's a road game in a uniquely bitter rivalry might make the sledding a bit tougher than projections would otherwise imply, though.

The Washington defense has been tough on runners, keeping backs under four yards per carry and under six yards per target. If you consider Dallas the favorite, though, as I do, you have to like Elliott's chances of getting volume and eventually breaking the defense late in the game. I think the field positioning might be better than projected, too, if the Dallas pass rush gets to Cousins.

If I had to worry about some part of the Dallas offense, I guess it would be the passing game. Not because I don't believe in Dak, but because the return of Josh Norman and the road matchup in a heated rivalry might make for a tougher setting. You're not backing off Bryant or Witten in season-long formats, but I think Witten is the only one I'm likely to use in DFS. Washington is allowing 10 yards per target to tight ends, but just 7.1 per target to receivers.

Detroit vs. Pittsburgh

Open: 44.5 O/U, PIT -3
Press time: 46.5 O/U, PIT -3

While Pittsburgh has hit its stride, the Lions are sinking. That might especially be the case if top skill position player Golden Tate (shoulder) isn't able to contribute. Depriving Matthew Stafford of his best and arguably second-best target (Kenny Golladay) makes an already tough matchup look almost hopeless. The Steelers are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks while allowing a YPA of 5.6, giving up just six touchdowns and intercepting seven passes. Still, with Pittsburgh a safe favorite, Detroit should be forced to abandon the run at some relatively early point, which would give Marvin Jones good odds of seeing 10 or more targets. T.J. Jones might approach that range himself.

Ameer Abdullah would have a fine-looking matchup if Detroit doesn't fall behind, though. The Steelers are allowing nearly five yards per carry to running backs, and over six yards per target. Abdullah generally isn't fast or strong enough to create yardage without sound blocking, however, and the Detroit offensive line ranks last in Football Outsiders' run blocking metrics. Perhaps Theo Riddick can pile up checkdown targets if Pittsburgh takes a decisive lead.

Ezekiel Elliott was in all of my DFS lineups last week, and Le'Veon Bell will be in all of them this Sunday. The deactivation of Martavis Bryant could add a target or two to his workload, and he otherwise projects nicely against a Detroit defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs, and fourth-most in PPR. Given that I don't like the projection for the Detroit offense, I like Bell's chances of seeing his heavy workload closer to the end zone than usual. His career road splits are more favorable than his home splits, too.

Antonio Brown is always arguably the top wide receiver play in any given week, and I think A.J. Green is his only competition in Week 8. It only helps that he's playing in a dome on a short slate littered with rainy or/and cold outdoor games. Like Bell, Brown's target count might get a boost of one or two while Bryant is inactive. Juju Smith-Schuster is a standout prospect and should have a very good career, but I think he's more of a season-long asset for now than a player worth approaching much in DFS. I just think the upside is quite limited given the otherwise low floor he might have. The explosive Vance McDonald is an interesting tight end punt play against a Detroit defense allowing over 10 yards per target to tight ends so far.

Kansas City vs. Denver

Open: 44.5 O/U, KC -7
Press time: 43 O/U, KC -7

The Denver defense looks prohibitively intimidating at a glance, but their other two road games this year were lenient enough to fire up most of your Chiefs as you normally would. Maybe not Alex Smith – Tyrod Taylor and Philip Rivers combined for four touchdowns and no interceptions in those road games, but on just 52 pass attempts, during which they absorbed seven sacks – but it should be a good matchup for Travis Kelce at least, as the Broncos allow the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends, giving up 8.5 yards per target. I'm not terribly optimistic about Tyreek Hill against these corners.

Kareem Hunt, on the other hand, should be in position for volume at home, if only because of the ineptitude of Denver's offense of late. It's otherwise a brutal matchup at a glance – Denver is allowing the fewest fantasy points to running backs, giving up just 3.1 yards per carry and 4.2 yards per target – but the Broncos are on a sharp downward trajectory, which is a problem when you're on the road to face one of the league's elite backs.

For Denver, Demaryius Thomas should be open constantly when not running at Marcus Peters, so Trevor Siemian will just need to get the ball to him. Who knows whether that happens. C.J. Anderson has a fine enough on-paper matchup with a defense allowing 4.4 yards per carry to running backs, but the usage hasn't been there for him during Denver's recent meltdown.

(all line data from covers.com)