Best Ball Strategy: Early Round Surprises and Steals for 2024 NFL Best Ball

While most of us are focused on the Super Bowl or other sports or even non-sporting aspects of life (debatable), there are already some diehard drafters assembling NFL best ball teams for 2024. Underdog and FFPC opened contests after the conclusion of the conference championship games, and other sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, Drafters and Yahoo figure to kick things off within the next month or two

We'll have you covered February through September here at RotoWire, starting with my reactions below to the early round ADP numbers on Underdog (as of Feb. 5). Our first run of 2024 projections on RW will go live shortly after the Super Bowl, and as winter turns to spring you'll then see my recurring series of ADP-themed articles.

The one I recommend most compares ADP data between my favorite best-ball sites — Underdog, Drafters and DraftKings — to see where it tends to be "cheapest" (or most expensive) to draft certain players/stacks. It's useful information for people playing on multiple sites, and it can also be helpful if you're only using one of them or still deciding where to play.

The second article I'll do at regular intervals compares ADP changes over time, rather than between sites. This one I find somewhat less useful for strictly best-ball purposes but more useful for general fantasy enthusiasts who care about redraft or dynasty as much or more than best ball. 

When a player's ADP rises or falls, it's a sign of perceived change in fantasy value (duh?). Some of this stuff might be best-ball specific / based on twitter chatter / hard to explain, but most of the significant movement we see will come with more tangible explanations (e.g. trades, signings, relevant draft picks, new injury information). Passionate dynasty players, in particular, can use these articles to track how markets are valuing various players, which in turn may impact trade negotiations, rookie drafts or start-ups.

I'll also write some general strategy articles; stuff like stacking, building unique teams for big tournaments, and then adjusting approaches for 12-man leagues (my personal favorite). In addition to the stuff I write, Mario Puig will provide another perspective on best ball, often diving into the gory details on specific players in a way that I usually won't in these ADP articles. 

With all due respect to myself, those of you who have been reading RW for a while know that Mario is the guy you want to listen to when it comes to rookies. He also has a more-than-stellar record when it comes to end-game strategy and picks. His articles have helped me thrive in that regard and clean up in 12-player leagues (so-called "cash games").

That's what you can expect throughout the year. For today, I'll look at Rounds 1-6 on Underdog (~Top 72 ADP) and discuss players that fall into one (or two) of three categories:

1. Biggest Surprises
2. Most Overvalued
3. Most Undervalued

Biggest Surprises (Rounds 1-6)

Rookie WR Marvin Harrison - WR11 / ADP 18.8

I'm surprised to see any rookie going this early at a position besides running back. It's never happened in my many years of playing fantasy football, though maybe it should've with the benefit of hindsight (re: Ja'Marr Chase). I probably won't be the one drafting Harrison mid-Round 2, especially at this early juncture when we don't actually know where he'll be playing. 

The Cardinals are the favorite to draft him, which would pair the rookie with a solid QB in an offense where he's definitely the No. 1 receiver. Projections also need to consider the possibility of Harrison landing in New England or Washington, or with another team that trades up for him. Guys with lower ADPs that I'd rather draft for 2024 right now include RB Saquon Barkley and WR Chris Olave, though I'd undoubtedly take Harrison over both in dynasty leagues.

Cooper Kupp - WR27 / ADP 43.9

Puka Nacua (WR6 / ADP 8.5) was the better player in 2023 and rightfully is being drafted earlier, but I'm nonetheless surprised to see this much of a gap between the Rams wide receivers. It feels like this ADP is 100 percent giving up on the possibility of Kupp becoming a high-end WR1 again. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's certainly possible given the role injuries played in his decline the past two years. I guess I thought more people would want to chase that ceiling in Round 3.

QB Anthony Richardson - QB6 / ADP 54.8

Richardson was typically an eighth/ninth-round best ball pick last summer, going at 99.9 on Underdog when I did my final ADP Analysis article with data from Sept. 3. Now he's going in Round 5, after four rushing TDs and three passing scores on 173 snaps (essentially three games' worth) in an abbreviated rookie season. He looked good, to be sure, but I figured that would move him up a round or two, not four. Richardson is now going well ahead of Dak Prescott (QB7 / ADP 73.5) and Joe Burrow (QB8 / ADP 75.6). I can't even say I hate it, but it does seem there are better values in the same ADP range, including fellow 2023 first-round picks C.J. Stroud (QB5 / ADP 51.3) and Jordan Addison (WR32 / ADP 53.0).

Overvalued (Rounds 1-6)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs - RB4 / ADP 10.7

Not a player I expected to be OUT on, but a couple things happened this past year that have me viewing Gibbs as more Round 2 than Round 1 for 2024. He was a lightning bolt, as expected, but didn't actually add value as a pass catcher, averaging 6.1 yards per catch and 4.5 per target while tying for the fifth most drops (five) among RBs. Even though that figures to improve with time, Gibbs still has to share an offense with David Montgomery, fresh off a 2023 season with career highs for YPC (4.6), TDs (13) and rushing yards per game (72.5). 

Alvin Kamara showed us years ago that there's a path to first-round value while sharing an offense with another RB getting double-digit touches... I'm just not sure Gibbs will get near that level as a target-earner, and there's not much chance of Montgomery quietly fading into the background without an injury. Despite my general preference for talent over situation/opportunity this early in the year, I'd rather draft Kyren Williams than Gibbs toward the end of Round 1. 

 WR Brandon Aiyuk - WR14 / ADP 21.6

This is too early for a pick that feels like it's all floor, no ceiling. Aiyuk hasn't reached seven targets per game since his rookie year when he missed five contests, and his step forward in 2023 was a result of the efficiency progressing from excellent to superhuman. There's a solid argument for projecting him with the most yards per target of any WR after he caught a career-high 71.4 percent of passes in 2023 despite his aDOT spiking to 13.9*, but even then we have to assume quite a bit of regression from 12.8 YPT. 

In many cases, added volume would make up for said regression in the wake of such an impressive season... except that in this case Aiyuk figures to again cohabitate an offense with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Assuming all four big dogs stay in the kennel, I'd rather draft a WR with a larger volume projection in the second half of Round 2, be it Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs (eh), Chris Olave (yay) or Mike Evans. I'm also somewhat wary of Deebo Samuel (WR12 / 20.4), who slightly outscored Aiyuk in 2023 even while missing two full games and a majority of two others (Aiyuk missed one game). At least Samuel finished top 10 among WRs in points per game — something he's done once before, while Aiyuk never has.

*Aiyuk had an aDOT between 9.4 and 9.9 in each of his first four pro seasons. 

RB James Cook - RB12 / ADP 41.6

Cook finished 2023 at RB12 for cumulative scoring and RB10 for points per game. He had five consecutive games with at least 100 total yards between mid-November and mid-December, but then fell shy of that mark in each of his final five appearances, including playoffs. More simply put, my concern is that Cook is an ordinary real-life player, which comes with the threat of his team adding serious snap/touch competition this spring.  He can't afford to cede many touches in an offense where QB Josh Allen absolutely dominates the touchdowns; Buffalo RBs scored seven rushing TDs in 2023, seven in 2022, 12 in 2021 and eight in 2020. 

Undervalued (Rounds 1-6)

RB Travis Etienne - RB9 / ADP 30.5

Etienne finished 2023 ranked fourth among RBs in carries (267), seventh in targets (73) and tied for sixth in touchdowns (12), with the only thing missing being the part many of us took for granted beforehand (YPC efficiency... he averaged only 3.8). A lot of different things played into that, including poor run blocking and Etienne getting more short-yardage/goal-line work than expected (which drags down YPC but is of course a good thing for fantasy purposes). The hope here is that the first part improves while the second stays the same; a scenario in which Etienne could return first-round value. The Jags have their full complement of draft picks (plus an extra fourth-rounder) and a decent cap situation, so they should be able to improve an O-line that finished 2023 with PFF's second-worst run-blocking grade.

TE Travis Kelce - TE2 / ADP 45.3

This is where I would've drafted Kelce if his late-season slump had continued into the playoffs. Now I think it's pretty close to a toss-up between him and Rashee Rice (WR13 / ADP 21.5) for scoring more fantasy points next year, and only one of them comes with the bonus of TE eligibility. Give me the 34-year-old declining superstar in Round 4 over the rookie standout who made a living on screens and slants in Round 2. I'm definitely open to the triple-stack, FWIW, though their respective ADPs make it kind of tricky to do without reaching for at least one of them (such is life, I suppose).

WR Jaylen Waddle - WR25 / ADP 39.3

As someone with a lot of Waddle shares, I understand the frustration. I might even agree with this ADP for lineup-setting, redraft leagues... probably not, but it would at least be closer. In playoff-centric best ball tournaments, Waddle's combination of season-long floor and weekly ceiling makes him more valuable. And I'd argue the same for Amari Cooper (WR30/ ADP 47.2) or Terry McLaurin (WR36 / ADP 12.6) at slightly later stages of drafts. 

RB Aaron Jones - RB18 / ADP 66.4

I'm not sure if I care about the playoffs too much or UD drafters care too little. Regardless, I'm strong in my conviction on this one, after Jones ripped off three straight 100-yard rushing games to close out the regular season and then added two more in the playoffs. He's still one of the better real-life RB, and a strong finish to 2023 should keep him with Matt LaFleur for at least one more year. Two months ago, Jones' ~$12 million in non-guaranteed compensation for 2024 — the final year of his contract — looked like a potential problem. Now it looks like fair pay again, and perhaps even a bargain for the Packers once we account for the 29-year-old's locker-room leadership and his familiarity with LaFleur's system.