This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Most experienced fantasy managers go into their drafts with some type of cheat sheet. But let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players in the same ADP range to help you make your best decision on draft day.
If you've missed the first few articles in the ADP Battles series, you can catch up by visiting my RotoWire page. This week, we'll look at a trio of wide receivers who often go off the board between WR11 and WR13.
Jaylen Waddle
In PPR, Waddle finished as the WR16 last year and WR14 as a rookie. He could still be a player on the rise and is being selected in the top-20 picks in drafts. He has game-changing speed, and we learned last year that his coach, Mike McDaniel, is very good at using Waddle's speed as a weapon.
Upside
If there is a way to blend Waddle's first two years in the league, we might be looking at a top-8 receiver. As a rookie, he had an excellent 141 targets, but last year, those fell to 117. Obviously, adding Tyreek Hill was the main reason Waddle's targets dropped. But there is a world where the team doesn't waste targets to their less efficient players in the offense and
Most experienced fantasy managers go into their drafts with some type of cheat sheet. But let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players in the same ADP range to help you make your best decision on draft day.
If you've missed the first few articles in the ADP Battles series, you can catch up by visiting my RotoWire page. This week, we'll look at a trio of wide receivers who often go off the board between WR11 and WR13.
Jaylen Waddle
In PPR, Waddle finished as the WR16 last year and WR14 as a rookie. He could still be a player on the rise and is being selected in the top-20 picks in drafts. He has game-changing speed, and we learned last year that his coach, Mike McDaniel, is very good at using Waddle's speed as a weapon.
Upside
If there is a way to blend Waddle's first two years in the league, we might be looking at a top-8 receiver. As a rookie, he had an excellent 141 targets, but last year, those fell to 117. Obviously, adding Tyreek Hill was the main reason Waddle's targets dropped. But there is a world where the team doesn't waste targets to their less efficient players in the offense and consolidates the target tree to heavily feature Hill and Waddle. In addition to the targets, last year his yards per target increased from 7.2 to 11.6. Then he almost doubled his yards per reception from 9.8 to 18.1 with a 94th percentile yards-after-catch. With the history of this offensive scheme, getting receivers into open space is a staple, so the big yardage could be sustainable. Simply put, a boost in targets while retaining last year's efficiency provides the upside scenario.
Downside
As good as McDaniel was running the Dolphins' offense last year, both the 49ers and Chargers showed some defensive looks that made life difficult for the passing attack. It's possible this year opponents approach Miami differently to limit explosive plays. Obviously, Waddle will still be the No. 2 in the Miami offense. But if that 18.1 yards per reception of last year falls to 14 or 15, and if the targets remain in the 120 range, we could be looking at more of a top-20 WR. It also should be noted that with Tua Tagovailoa's history of serious head injuries, his chances of missing significant time seem greater than most QBs. The move to Mike White likely would be a big downgrade to the entire offense. If he's a top-20 receiver, it's still very good, but it wouldn't make his ADP a value.
The Bottom Line
I like Waddle's upside, but I am concerned about the team's ability to adjust when opponents likely approach it differently. I also worry that Tagovailoa misses significant time. I will draft some shares of Waddle, but the concerns will make me take similarly ranked WRs over him in a high percentage of my drafts.
Chris Olave
Olave quickly proved that he was well worth the first-round draft capital the Saints used on as he posted more than 1,000 yards in a struggling offense. In theory, the change in QBs from Andy Dalton to Derek Carr should help Olave move closer to the upper-echelon of fantasy receivers.
Upside
Even though Derek Carr wasn't good last year (the Raiders basically cut him loose before the last few games of the season), he got maximum production out of Davante Adams. With Carr, Adams posted 15.2 yards per reception, which was more than 2.5 yards better than his last five seasons with Aaron Rodgers. Olave was not great in yards after the catch last year (17th percentile). But his downfield ability helped him finish with 14.2 yards per reception. However, Olave had a slow finish to the season. He had 3-5 catches in his last seven games. And after having a number of high-target games the first six weeks, he only had one game with more than nine targets in his last nine games. If the Saints can keep right tackle Ryan Ramczyk healthy, and if second-year left tackle Trevor Penning makes a second-year jump, Carr should have the time to throw downfield to Olave. With Carr likely funneling as many targets as possible to Olave, don't be surprised if he finishes in the top-10 WRs.
Downside
There's little doubt that Olave is already a star receiver. He actually benefited in some ways by having Dalton as his QB. When pressure was coming, Dalton stood firm in the pocket and fearlessly waited as long as possible before delivering the ball, and that was often to Olave. If Ramczyk misses time and/or Penning doesn't make a big improvement after an injury-plagued rookie season, Carr is going to be under heavy pressure. As it stands now, the interior OL is not great, but if the tackles struggle, the passing game could be a disaster. In the scenario where Carr isn't protected, Olave might have to live on shorter passes. And with his yards after the catch not an area of strength (though that could improve), he may not see much improvement from last year. He'd still be a top-20 WR, but that would not justify his draft cost.
The Bottom Line
I expect Olave to improve his stats from his rookie season. But I also think that Carr is going to be under pressure often. That will cause the QB to throw more check downs to his RBs and TEs than we'd like. Overall, Olave won't reach elite production level this year, but he should finish right at his ADP, making him a reasonable draft pick.
DeVonta Smith
Smith had a solid rookie season in 2021 with 916 yards and five touchdowns. Then the Eagles added A.J. Brown, which allowed Smith to become one of the best No. 2 receivers in the NFL. He ended last season with 1,196 yards and seven scores. Now, we'll see if there's another level of production he can reach in his third year.
Upside
Through the first nine weeks of the 2022 season, Smith saw inconsistent target volume. But in his last 12 games (including the Eagles' Super Bowl run), he had at least eight targets in all but one game. During that time, he had five of his six 100-yard games. The typical game plan for the Eagles last year was to come out pass heavy. However, they would often have a comfortable lead by halftime. That resulted in the team backing off on the passing game the rest of the way. The Eagles have a much more difficult projected schedule than they had last year. If games are closer, and Jalen Hurts has to pass for all four quarters, this passing game can reach new heights. So if Smith retains his second-half of the season target volume, and he sees additional work due to game script, he could join A.J. Brown as a top-10 WR.
Downside
During the latter part of the season, Smith was often getting more targets than Brown. With Brown being one of the best players in the NFL, don't be surprised if more emphasis is placed on making Brown the clear alpha in the passing attack. Also, the Eagles have changed out talent on their defense. If they are even better than last year, they could find themselves with a lot of second-half leads. That would result in the team again backing off the pass. And if Brown dominates targets, that combination would impact the volume Smith enjoyed. Regardless, the Eagles don't use many pass catchers, so Smith will be very involved. His worst-case scenario is likely about WR18.
The Bottom Line
I think the Eagles will be even more explosive on offense than they were last year. I also think the increase in schedule difficulty will increase the passing volume. Although Smith's ceiling may not be significantly higher than it was last year, he should make a modest jump in production. He offers little risk at his ADP, and he should be drafted with confidence.
The Final Word
Clearly, it's tough to go wrong with any of these options. If I'm on the clock, I prefer Smith. He has the best situation around him. He's not the alpha (so he won't be the focus of defensive game plans), has a very good QB, and the OL protects the QB well. Smith's floor/ceiling combo is the best of this group. However, if I want to go for the most upside, I prefer Olave, as he's the alpha WR, and if Carr is protected by his line, it could be an amazing season for him. Finally, Waddle is a great pick, but I worry that this offense has second-year issues that they struggle to overcome. I also worry about Tagovailoa's ability to stay on the field, which would hurt the Miami passing game.
