2022 NFL Offseason Guide: NFC West

The Rams may still be awake celebrating a triumphant conclusion to the 2021 season, but for true fantasy diehards it's never too early to look ahead to next year. Some dynasty leagues allow trading throughout winter, and there are now best-ball sites that start drafting for the following season before the current one is technically finished (I drafted my first 2022 squad on Underdog a week and a half prior to the Super Bowl).

The problem with drafting and trading this early is that we don't know where rookies will be selected or where free agents will sign, nor do we know for certain which veterans will be cut/ traded. On that last point, we do often get significant clues to work with, whereas matching rookies and free agents to specific teams is generally a fool's errand, especially before winter turns to spring.

The goal below is to provide a bird's eye view of where each team stands entering the offseason, looking at projected cap space, free agents, potential cap casualties and draft capital. We can then see which teams are best positioned to actually fix their weaknesses, and can at least get some idea about the teams most likely to devote early draft picks or significant cap space to the positions we care about most for fantasy (QB, RB, WR, TE).

Given that RotoWire is a fantasy website, it's those four positions we'll mostly focus on, though defenses and O-lines won't be ignored by any means. The offseason previews will be released one per day over the next week and a half, starting with the NFC West in honor of the champs.

But before we dig in to the Rams and their rivals, there are a few things to keep in mind about the information below, and some key dates to know for the upcoming offseason. For starters, it's important to keep in mind that all info on cap space is based on a team's 2022 obligations as of mid-February, without any adjustments for releases and renegotiations that are likely to happen in the coming months.

In most cases, teams that we list as being well over the limit (negative cap space) won't find it too hard to become compliant by the start of the new league year in mid-March. Some may even be able to shop at the top of the market in free agency, perhaps sitting a few simple transactions away from clearing tens of millions of cap space.

The figure listed for each team's cap comes from this page on OverTheCap.com, sorted by 'Effective Cap Space' to account for the minimum of 51 players (because $15 million in cap space with 55 guys under contact is very different from $15 million in cap space with only 35 guys signed for next year.)

You'll see me mention June 1 quite a bit throughout this series; it's the date when teams can start spreading a traded/released player's dead-cap charge between the current year's sheet (2022) and next year's (2023). The NFL does allow each team to designate two cuts as pre-June 1 even if they occur before the date, but any other trades/releases done before June require all the dead money to be charged against 2022. Here are some of the other important dates to keep in mind for the upcoming offseason:

March 8: Deadline to designate Franchise/Transition tag players.

March 14: Beginning of "Legal Tampering" period (teams can speak with impending FAs).

March 16: Start of 2022 League Year (teams can sign free agents and officially make trades).

April 4: Teams with new coaches can start offseason programs.

April 18: All other teams can start offseason programs.

April 22: Deadline for restricted free agents to sign offer shets.

April 28-30: 2022 NFL Draft

May 2: Deadline to exercise fifth-year option for 2019 first-round picks (applies to 2023)

June 1: Dead-money split deadline (discussed above, and in more detail here at OTC).

Now, let's kick things with our first off eight offseason previews, beginning with the NFL's strongest division...

Arizona Cardinals

Cap Space: -$3.9 million (22nd)

Potential Cap Casualties: LT D.J. Humphries, LG Justin Pugh, DL Jordan Phillips, LB Devon Kennard, LB Jordan Hicks

Detailed Cap Sheet: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/arizona-cardinals/

The Cards can free up ~$48.5 million in cap space by releasing/trading the five guys listed above, though they'd then need to use some of that money to fix the left side of their line. Humphries and Pugh are neither young nor standout performers, but they're reliable, starting-caliber players for a team that hasn't seen many of those on the O-line the past decade. Phillips and Kennard are overpaid rotational players slash borderline starters, while Hicks could be replaced by 2021 first-round pick Zaven Collins (or not... it's still not quite clear how AZ will use him).

Key Free Agents: WR A.J. Green, WR Christian Kirk, RB James Conner, RB Chase Edmonds, TE Zach Ertz, OLB Chandler Jones, CB Robert Alford

Draft Capital: 1st (23), 2nd (55), 3rd (87), 6th (200), 6th (2016), 7th (242), 7th (257), 7th (259)

Apart from DeAndre Hopkins, all of Kyler Murray's top weapons are scheduled for free agency. The Cards figure to keep some of those guys, but not all, and they don't have the best situation in terms of draft capital or cap space (all the seventh-round compensatory picks in the world wouldn't make up for not having a fourth- or fifth-rounder).

It's also not the worst cap situation, and the players under contract include Murray, Hopkins, J.J. Watt and Budda Baker.

The (Way-Too-Early) Verdict: Don't like the coach. Don't like back-to-back first-round picks used on off-ball linebackers. Don't really like the direction this thing is heading in a brutal division, unless Murray takes (another) step forwards and proves truly heroic. 

What I do like? An opportunity for 2021 second-round pick Rondale Moore to get way more playing time, and the possibility of Ertz seeing triple-digit targets if he stays in the desert. 

Plus, Kyler is already a fantasy star, with potential to become a real-life one. It'd help if he got a better offseason from GM Steve Keim, who did well to acquire Murray and Hopkins but otherwise has far more misses than hits the past few years. 

Los Angeles Rams

Cap Space: -$17.2 million (27th)

Potential Cap Casualties: DT A'Shawn Robinson

Detailed Cap Sheet: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/los-angeles-rams/

It's hard to find anyone on the Rams' cap sheet who is blatantly overpaid, which explains why their cap situation isn't too bad despite all the win-now trades and superstar players. The one guy I'd call overpaid is OLB Leonard Floyd, who has a full guarantee on his $16.5 million base salary for 2022. 

In other words, the Rams will need to renegotiate veteran contracts (Jalen Ramsey, Cooper Kupp, etc.) to create cap space. They may also need to give Aaron Donald a raise, which will cost a nice chunk of real-life money but can potentially be done without adding to the 2022 cap hit (2023 and beyond would be a different story).

Key Free Agents: WR Odell Beckham, RB Sony Michel, C Brian Allen, RG Austin Corbett, CB Darious Williams, OLB Von Miller.

Draft Capital: 3rd (103), 4th (141), 5th (174), 6th (210), 6th (211), 6th (213), 7th (236), 7th (251)

Beckham and Miller will get most of the attention, but Allen and Corbett might be more important — both are quality, 27-year-old starters with considerable experience... not only in the NFL but within Sean McVay's offense. The Rams won't just sit by quietly and bleed talent this offseason, but they may have to accept some decline in O-line play, given the two impending free agents plus LT Andrew Whitworth's potential retirement.

The (Way-Too-Early) Verdict: They'll probably lose more guys than the Bucs did last offseason, but relative to the norm for Super Bowl participants, the Rams (and also the Bengals) are in excellent shape to retain their core guys. WR is the most intriguing spot right now, with OBJ a free agent and Robert Woods working back from an ACL tear. That might create a second opening for Van Jefferson, who didn't exactly close out this past season with a bang. 

Alternately, the Rams could look at undersized 2021 second-round pick Tutu Atwell, he of the 10-snap rookie season. Anyway, Stafford and Kupp should eat again, and initial ADP results have Tyler Higbee as a value at TE16, even if we've given up on any ceiling.

San Franciso 49ers

Cap Space: -$10.5 million (25th)

Potential Cap Casualties: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, DE Dee Ford, DE/OLB Samson Ebukam, S Jimmie Ward

Detailed Cap Sheet: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/san-francisco-49ers/

The 49ers will free up another $25.5 million or so when they release/trade Garoppolo, who leaves behind a dead-money charge of only $1.4 million. They can then save $6.5 million if they move on from Ebukam, a solid but unspectacular edge player, with another $7 million available if the injury-plagued Ford is cut. (That adds up to $39 million in added cap space between the three).

Ward is more likely to be extended than released — he's a solid starter coming off what was arguably his best season — but we'll still mention him given the non-guaranteed $8.9 million base salary for the final year of his contract.

Key Free Agents: LG Laken Tomlinson, S Jaquiski Tartt, CB K'Waun Williams, CB Josh Norman, OL Tom Compton, DE Arden Key, WR Mohamed Sanu, RB Jeff Wilson, RG Daniel Brunskill (RFA), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (RFA)

Draft Capital: 2nd (61), 3rd (93), 4th (132), 5th (171), 6th (185), 7th (252), 7th (255), 7th (262)

Tomlinson and Tartt will get nice contracts, but the Niners' other unrestricted free agents should be reasonably cheap to retain if they want them back. GM John Lynch won't lack for cap space to keep Tomlinson and Tartt (or sign suitable replacements), even with mega-deals for Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa waiting around the corner.

The (Way-Too-Early) Verdict: The Niners have a ton of talent on their roster, with few bad contracts and four bonafide superstars. The only real negatives are an inexperienced QB and a lack of draft capital, but they have enough salary-cap flexibility this offseason to plug any gaps around Trey Lance with free-agent veterans.

That's more likely to apply to the defense or O-Line than offensive skill positions, though it wouldn't be shocking if they added a mid-level vet or mid-round pick to compete with RB Elijah Mitchell or No. 3 receiver Jauan Jennings. We know the passing game will run through Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, and it isn't likely to be a high-volume aerial attack with a mobile, young QB taking over for an immobile veteran.

Seattle Seahawks

Cap Space: $34.7 million (7th)

Potential Cap Casualties: LB Bobby Wagner, RB Chris Carson, K Jason Myers, G Gabe Jackson

Detailed Cap Sheet: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/seattle-seahawks/

Wagner remains one of the top linebackers in football, but there's some chance he's traded/released with only one year remaining on his contract and the Seahawks able to clear $16.6 million of his $20.4 million cap hit off their books. The other huge cap-clearing possibility is a Russell Wilson trade, which would remove $26 million of his $37 million charge from Seattle's sheet if it happened before his $5 million roster bonus is due on the fifth day of the league year (March 20).

Ditching both Wilson and Wagner would leave the Seahawks with around $80 million in cap space... and also a hideous roster. If they keep Wilson, it might make sense to also keep Wagner and then create some cap space (for O-line additions?) by releasing a couple of the others listed above.

They can add nearly $5 million in cap space if Carson is released with a post-June 1 designation (if/when he can pass a physical) or $4 million by moving on from Myers, who isn't an especially good kicker in any case. Jackson's release would free up $6 million, though it'd also leave another vacancy on the line (at right guard).

Key Free Agents: TE Gerald Everett, RB Rashaad Penny, LT Duane Brown, CB D.J. Reed, S Quandre Diggs, RT Brandon Shell, C Ethan Pocic, DE Rasheem Green, CB Sidney Jones, TE Will Dissly, DT Al Woods

Draft Capital: 2nd (41), 3rd (72), 4th (107), 4th (114), 5th (152), 7th (227)

The Seahawks have a lot of 2021 snaps headed for free agency, including four of their better starters from this past season in Brown, Reed, Diggs and Penny. It's the last guy who interests us most for fantasy football, especially with Carson facing an uncertain future (it's not entirely clear he'll return from his neck injury... and he eventually could be a cap casualty even if he gets a clean bill of health).

Everett did show some chemistry late last season with Russ Wilson, keeping the TE in play as a late-round best ball pick (though not necessarily a preferred one). It's hard to imagine he'll find a significantly better opportunity in fantasy terms, but that doesn't mean he won't find a larger contract elsewhere.

The (Way-Too-Early) Verdict: It all starts with Wilson and whether or not he wants to stay. If so, the Seahawks probably have enough cap flexibility to keep their top free agents and even add another key piece or two. But they don't have a first-round pick, and Wilson isn't wrong to be skeptical if the Seahawks pitch him on converting cap space and mid-round picks into a Super Bowl-contending team.

All of this leaves DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in a strange place, with the former entering the final year of his rookie contract and the latter heading into Year 1 of a four-year extension. It's probably best for both if Wilson stays, especially if the Seahawks' alternative would be drafting a young QB rather than trying to bring in another veteran.