2020 Football Draft Kit: Sleepers & Busts

In our version of sleepers and busts, we seek to identify players whose average draft position (ADP) makes them undervalued or overvalued. We asked some of our football writers for their favorite undervalued and overvalued players for the 2020 season. But remember, calling a player overvalued does not mean he will be awful this year. It simply means his risk outweighs the likelihood he returns his ADP value. We limited "busts" to an ADP top-10 QB/TE or top-25 RB/WR.

UNDERVALUED

Odell Beckham, WR, Browns

Beckham is one of the most talented receivers in the history of the league, still only 27 years old and should be healthy after playing through abdominal injuries last year. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is better than he showed last season, and the Browns offense should improve under even a semi-competent head coach. Moreover, after an injured Jarvis Landry, the Browns' receiving depth chart is awfully thin. WR1 is in play should Beckham stay healthy and Mayfield resemble the player we thought he was going into last year.

Daniel Jones, QB, Giants 

Coming off a promising rookie season, Jones should improve in Year 2 behind a much better offensive line and with the return to health of his key playmakers, after Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram each missed multiple games last season. Additionally, second-year deep threat Darius Slayton, with his 4.39 speed, is emerging as a potential star. Finally, new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett had success developing quarterbacks Tony Romo and Dak Prescott for the Cowboys.

— Chris Liss

Derrius Guice, RB, Redskins 

Guice has played five games in two seasons, dealing with various knee injuries. Fortunately, he's being drafted as a low-end RB3, so there's little risk in selecting a player who runs a 4.49 40 at 225 pounds and who rushed for 5.8 yards per carry in limited action in 2019. Although Guice was in a timeshare last year, expect Washington to feature its 2018 second-round draft pick, who can play all three downs, especially with receiving back Chris Thompson gone. If Guice stays healthy, an RB1 finish isn't out of the question.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens

Baltimore drafted Dobbins in the second round, which should ensure he gets playing time immediately, and he should quickly prove to be the superior runner over 10-year veteran Mark Ingram, who came into the league with below average speed and agility scores. In addition, the Ravens see Dobbins as a three-down talent, so this could become his backfield soon. Playing behind a strong line and with defenses focused on Lamar Jackson, Dobbins could finish as a top-15 running back, but he can be drafted outside the top 25 at the position.

— Jim Coventry

Brandin Cooks, WR, Texans

The Texans have a lot of redundant talents at wide receiver who could get in each other's way, but Cooks is easily the most accomplished. He posted four consecutive 1,000 yard seasons — with three quarterbacks — while the rest of his new teammates have combined for one such season in their NFL careers (Randall Cobb in 2014). And the Texans showed how much they value Cooks by giving up a second-round pick to acquire him. Cooks has a shot to finish this season as a high-end WR2 or better for the cost of a mid-round pick.

Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles

Even though he effectively missed two games and was the clear backup to Zach Ertz in 2019, Goedert still finished 10th among TEs in fantasy scoring. Goedert is a serviceable starting fantasy TE even with Ertz around, and he would vault to the position's upper echelon if Ertz got injured. And even if a healthy Ertz sticks around, it's possible Goedert starts taking the upper hand. At 25 and entering his third season, Goedert has been a quick study as a pro — his 2019 fantasy production was sixth best for a first- or second-year TE in the last five seasons.

— Alex Rikleen

Ronald Jones, RB, Buccaneers

The 38th pick in the 2018 draft made huge strides from Year 1 to Year 2, but the fantasy community seems awfully afraid of rookie Ke'Shawn Vaughn. It shouldn't be. Vaughn is a 23-year-old, third-round pick who is not a standout athlete — that usually spells NFL backup. Jones, who is three months younger than Vaughn, enters his third season coming off 5.1 yards per touch, 13th among RBs (min. 175 touches). Jones should hold off Vaughn, and if Tom Brady's ability to extend possessions can balance an offense that threw 630 times last year, the third-year pro could see increased volume.

Hayden Hurst, TE, Falcons

A foot injury as a rookie in 2018 and the emergence of Mark Andrews last season limited "Garnet Thor" in Baltimore, but a better opportunity awaits in Atlanta. The man Hurst is replacing, Austin Hooper, had 97 targets in 13 games last year, 43 of which came out of the slot where he lined up 40 percent of the time. Hooper also had 18 red-zone targets (4th among TEs) and nine targets inside the 10 (only Travis Kelce had more). The 6-4, 245-pound Hurst, who runs a 4.67 40, should step smoothly into the role vacated by Hooper and finally get to show off his first-round pedigree.

— Luke Hoover

Tarik Cohen, RB, Bears 

Cohen produced 10.2 yards per reception and eight touchdowns in 2018, finishing as PPR RB11 and creating unrealistic expectations for the future. He actually had career highs for targets and catches in 2019, but he lost 35 carries and five TDs from the previous season while dropping to a measly 5.8 YPR. For a second consecutive year, fantasy markets are overreacting to Cohen's efficiency stats and underreacting to his volume. Thus, we get a nice buy-low opportunity on a player who caught 71 and 79 passes the last two seasons.

Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals

Burrow had a lot of help from fellow first-round-picks-to-be in the LSU offense, but his final stats — 76.3 completion percentage, 10.8 YPA, NCAA-record 60 passing TDs — were outrageous even within the context of an all-star team. He did it against a tough schedule, and he also showed impressive mobility with a 2019 rushing line that works out to about 80-590-5 if sacks aren't counted. Burrow probably won't have great blocking in Cincinnati, but he'll have plenty of weapons at the skill positions, namely Joe Mixon, A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins.

— Jerry Donabedian

Mike Gesicki, TE, Dolphins

A 2018 second-round pick, Gesicki finally made an impact late last season, averaging nearly four catches and 50 yards in the last six games with five TDs. He ranked third among tight ends with a 9.8-yard average depth of target, and his 3.7 YAC average should improve considering his extreme athleticism. A size/speed freak, Gesicki has great hands (one drop on 121 career targets) and should continue to work often in the slot in an improved offensive scheme under new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey. He also doesn't have much competition for targets other than DeVante Parker. 

DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks

Metcalf proved skeptics wrong last season, as his lack of agility coming out of the combine was made irrelevant by his size, speed and leaping ability. Metcalf dropped seven passes (7 percent) and caught only 58 percent of his targets, but his catch rate improved during the season to 70.5 percent in the last seven games, including playoffs. Both marks should continue to improve in his second season with more experience with Russell Wilson, as should his route running. With an expected jump in targets and efficiency, Metcalf will outperform his summer ADP of WR19.

— Jason Thornbury

Marquise Brown, WR, Ravens 

Brown is primed for a breakout after injuries held him to just 50 percent of the Ravens' snaps as a rookie last season. Even with limited reps, Brown showed encouraging signs, including 8.2 YPT and touchdowns on 9.9 percent of his targets. Now healthy, Brown's snaps and targets project to balloon, and the efficiency should be on the upswing too. Brown was one of college football's best big-play threats in 2018, and he's now ready to take off and become Lamar Jackson's top target. Brown could be a top-10 receiver in 2020.

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Lions

Hockenson is being drafted outside the top 15 at his position but has a shot at being a top-10 tight end this year. He is sent on routes at a high rate, and his advanced stats from 2019, including YAC and aDOT, rate well among tight ends. The only metric that lagged before his season-ending ankle injury was his catch rate (55 percent). However, his 72 percent catch rate in college suggests he could be in line for positive regression. If Hockenson can improve in that aspect while maintaining his efficiency in other areas, he will be a steal for those who wait on tight end.

— John McKechnie

OVERVALUED

Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers

Evans does much of his damage down the field on throws that are no longer in 43-year-old Tom Brady's wheelhouse. And while Evans is massive for a receiver at 6-5, 231, the Buccaneers added Brady's long-time running mate Rob Gronkowski, one of the greatest red-zone receivers of all-time and still have size/speed freak O.J. Howard at tight end too. Evans is too good for Brady to ignore entirely, but do not be surprised if he prefers slot man Chris Godwin as his top target. It's unlikely Evans returns his ADP value this season.

Robert Woods, WR, Rams

Woods is a competent possession target, but where's the upside for a top-20 ADP wide receiver? While last year's two receiving touchdowns were anomalously low, he had only six in 16 games in 2018, and that was when the Los Angeles offense was actually good. Woods had only nine red-zone targets last year, and three from inside the 10-yard line, while teammate Cooper Kupp had 21 and 10, respectively. With Brandin Cooks gone to Houston, expect the Rams to involve their tight ends more, especially near the goal line.

— Chris Liss

Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers

Ekeler's being drafted as an RB1 for his receptions after catching 92 passes for 993 yards and eight TDs last year. However, Ekeler's QB is no longer Philip Rivers, who averaged 145 passes, 110 completions and a league-high 1,008 yards to his RBs the last five years. Don't expect Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert to have the same proficiency with Ekeler. And don't expect Ekeler to make up the difference running the ball. He had 132 rushes last year, resulting in 4.2 YPC, and he won't necessarily see increased carries with Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley also in the backfield mix.

Tyler Higbee, TE, Rams

After averaging 12 targets, nine catches and 104 yards in the last five games of 2019, it's no surprise Higbee's ADP is TE7. However, he averaged just 21 yards in the first 10 games while Gerald Everett, who is the superior athlete, was starting to break out. And Everett was injured just as the Rams were about to play four games against defenses that ranked in the bottom 8 vs. TEs, including two against the league-worst Cardinals. As a result, Higbee closed out the year on fire. The pair likely will split targets in 2020, and Everett could easily become the better fantasy option

—  Jim Coventry

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers

McCaffrey's incredibly talented, but he's profited off insanely high usage. The last two seasons, he ranked first and third in fantasy scoring among RBs. Not coincidentally, he ranked first and third in touches. We can't just assume a new coaching staff will maintain his gigantic touch load, especially with a stacked WR corps and a new QB. Furthermore, it's extremely unlikely he'll match last year's 19 TDs — in the last five years, only Todd Gurley has managed back-to-back seasons of at least 15. McCaffrey has too much uncertainty to be a top-3 pick, let alone the slam-dunk No. 1.

Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers

Both Godwin and fellow star WR Mike Evans are highly overrated this draft season. Simply put, I'd rather my fantasy wide receivers catch passes from Jameis Winston than a 43-year-old Tom Brady. Winston is a notorious gunslinger, willing to take massive risks. That might not please coaches, but it pays off often enough to boost his receivers. Brady is the opposite. He protects possessions, checks down often and lacks the arm strength for downfield throws. The last three years, Winston had a higher TD pass percentage than Brady and averaged more yards per attempt.

— Alex Rikleen

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Chiefs

It's easy to get excited about the marriage of Edwards-Helaire's electric quickness, toughness and dual-threat abilities with an Andy Reid system piloted by Patrick Mahomes, but it should not be easy to forget Super Bowl hero Damien Williams. While his 2019 season was interrupted by injuries, Williams proved his worth in the final five games, including playoffs, and in his last 16 games he's totaled 1,251 scrimmage yards and 17 touchdowns. It's unlikely Williams is going to relinquish enough touches for the Chiefs' first-round pick to live up to such lofty expectations.

A.J. Brown, WR, Titans

As a rookie on a run-first offense determined to drive Derrick Henry into the ground, Brown had five or fewer targets in 13 of 19 games (including playoffs) last season, and his production was wildly inconsistent as a result, despite his per-play brilliance. He produced nearly 70 percent of his yards in the second half of the season, thanks to an unsustainable 14.1 YPT that was built on catches of 47, 51, 60, 65 and 91 yards. In a system that's had fewer than 450 attempts each of the last two seasons, and with a likely steep regression in efficiency, Brown's price tag is too rich to justify.

— Luke Hoover

Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars

Fournette might be due for positive TD regression on a per-touch basis, but there's little to no chance he reaches 341 touches again. The Jaguars reportedly made multiple efforts to trade him during the offseason, and they eventually signed Chris Thompson to handle passing downs. Thompson is reunited with new Jags OC Jay Gruden, whose offenses in both Washington and Cincinnati always featured one back in the running game and another in the passing game. Gruden won't be giving his passing-down snaps to a player who had six drops and 5.2 YPT last year.

David Johnson, RB, Texans

It's bad enough to be washed up. It's even worse when the guy behind you isn't. And it's flat out embarrassing to be the second-best Johnson in your own backfield. Such is life for the former Cardinal, who hasn't sniffed 4.0 YPC since his 2016 breakout. Even the mega-season was built on volume, pass catching and TDs rather than rushing efficiency (4.2 YPC), and the 28-year-old Johnson has lost a couple steps since then. New teammate Duke Johnson has aged more gracefully, perhaps benefiting from spending his entire career in committees. It could be Duke's show by midseason.

— Jerry Donabedian

Aaron Jones, RB, Packers

Jones tied for a league-high 16 rushing TDs last year, 10 of which came inside the 5-yard line. Even without added competition, Jones' rate of short-yardage scores would be expected to regress. But the Packers drafted 6-0, 247-pound AJ Dillon, who is likely to intrude on Jones at the goal line. Jones also nearly doubled his career high in receptions last year (his first season of 16 games, mind you), which doesn't seem sustainable. And Jamaal Williams is still around as coach Matt LaFleur favors a committee. A summer ADP of RB9 makes decline more likely than profit.

Todd Gurley, RB, Falcons

The Rams were so ready to dump Gurley and his arthritic knee they willingly swallowed a $20.15 million dead cap hit. Many fantasy owners, though, seem to be ignoring the obvious, with Gurley being drafted as a top-17 RB. Gurley signed with the Falcons, who admitted they are uncertain about his health. And although he passed his physical in June, Gurley figures to lose touches again this year, both because of workload management and scheme — the Falcons ranked last in rushing percentage last season. There are plenty of better RB2 options than Gurley

— Jason Thornbury

Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers

This has less to do with Evans and more to do with skepticism that the Tom Brady experiment will work in his favor. Evans is a downfield specialist, with a 15.2-yard average depth of target that ranked fourth in the NFL last season. Brady, meanwhile, had an aDOT of 8.1, which ranked bottom 10 among QBs with at least 400 attempts. In fairness, Brady didn't have much help, but to expect him to reverse course and revamp his downfield ability is a big ask. Evans is great, but his style doesn't mesh with Brady's, and his production and volume likely will suffer.

Le'Veon Bell, RB, Jets

It can't get much worse than last year, but how much better can we really expect Bell to be in 2020? To be fair, there are things working in Bell's favor. The depth chart, along with his contract and pass-catching ability, should afford him a top-10 workload. Volume is king, after all. But if all that volume is amounting to sub-4.0 YPC, will the coaching staff's patience wear thin? Even if the year off helps explain the poor 2019, Bell is still three years removed from averaging more than 4.0 YPC. Declining skills and poor team context make Bell a risky selection.

— John McKechnie