2019 Football Draft Kit: It All Falls on Fournette

I looked at the Jaguars' depth chart at the beginning of the league year and assumed they had a plan for free agency to give Nick Foles some real help. Geoff Swaim, Chris Conley and Benny Cunningham weren't the guys I had in mind, but there was no need to worry with the draft still to come ... right?

The Jags came out of said draft with a third-round tight end, Josh Oliver, and a fifth-round running back, Ryquell Armstead, having used their first two picks on other positions after pass rusher Josh Allen (No. 7 overall) and offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor (No. 35) stayed on the board longer than expected. I wasn't about to argue with the value on those picks, and there was maybe still time to address the shortcomings on offense before the end of the summer.

Jacksonville did sign Terrelle Pryor to compete for a roster spot, but it's finally time to accept that this team has no real plan to field a productive group of tight ends or a pass-catching companion for Leonard Fournette in the backfield. And while the depth at wide receiver is okay, it's not like Jacksonville has a proven No. 1 option that can be relied upon for 125+ targets. Once we account for Marquise Lee's uncertain recovery timeline and Fournette's sketchy medical record, it feels like this team has about 800 carries/targets worth of skill-position talent, compared to the ~1,000 snaps that need to be filled in a season.

It's a frustrating situations for Jaguars fans, perhaps, but exactly the type of thing we look to take advantage of as fantasy owners. My principle observation is that Fournette will have an opportunity to compete for work on passing downs. He usually came off the field in obvious passing situations the past two years, but he also showed some receiving ability with a 78.4 percent catch rate and 6.6 YPT on 74 targets in 21 games.

With Cunningham representing a downgrade from T.J. Yeldon while Armstead and Alfred Blue offer minimal receiving skill, Fournette may actually be Jacksonville's best option on all three downs, if he's in good enough shape to handle such a workload. Unfortunately, positive reports from the offseason program don't mean much, considering we heard the exact same thing last year and then saw Fournette come back too heavy after he missed time with a hamstring injury.

I'm having a rough time with my evaluation here, as the team context hints at a workload that could produce first-round value, but the player involved is someone I've always considered to be overrated. Fournette's size/speed combination is a true rarity; it's just not all that valuable for practical purposes when he's stuck in a bad offense that struggles to provide cover for his mediocre vision and agility.

The "high-ceiling, low-floor" tag is most often used as a cop out to avoid meaningful analysis, but in this case I genuinely believe it's accurate. There's a reasonable chance for three-down workhorse usage with triple-digit scrimmage yards and a touchdown per week; and also a reasonable chance for an injury or benching to render Fournette completely useless for fantasy purposes.

Other backs drafted in the same range — Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack, Damien Williams, Devonta Freeman — don't have the same workload ceiling beyond 300 touches, but they do have the security of playing in offenses that will produce more cumulative yardage and touchdowns than Jacksonville's. It's a classic fantasy question of choosing between the larger share or the larger pie, with the added intrigue of every player besides Williams having a sketchy injury history the past couple seasons. 

#DedeSzn

The other big takeaway from Jacksonville's odd offseason is some level of trust in the current WR group, even though Lee is uncertain for Week 1 and Keelan Cole pulled a disappearing act in 2018. It all shakes out quite favorably for Dede Westbrook to match or exceed his 101 targets from last season, and he should do better than 7.1 YPT with Foles replacing the absolute disaster of Blake Bortles and Cody Kessler.

Conley received a glowing review from ESPN's Michael DiRocco for his work during the offseason program, but a two-year, $4.6 million contract suggests Jacksonville views the 26-year-old as depth rather than the answer. A late-round dart would be better spent on 2018 second-round pick D.J. Chark, who also seems to be getting an implied vote of confidence from Jacksonville's conservative offseason approach to the skill positions.

Westbrook offers the security of a WR3-caliber season already in the bag, but he also has a ton of ADP momentum pushing into the top 100, whereas Chark regularly goes undrafted. While my love for Westbrook's talent will keep me on the case unless it requires a top-75 pick, I'll also need to start considering Chark as an option for the final three rounds of best-ball drafts.

This will be one of the few teams that's actually interesting to watch during preseason, as we could get hints about Fournette's usage on passing downs and the starting alignment apart from Westbrook at wide receiver. There's also the matter of seeing how Foles adjusts to a new scheme, though it's clear the plan requires a lot of hand-offs and a strong defense.