2018 Football Draft Kit: Players on the Move

Conventional wisdom states that the NFL offseason is more style than substance until the draft, with most of the big-name movers in March only available because they're flawed. Last year's crop of acquisitions did nothing to dispel that notion, producing three players – Case Keenum, Brandin Cooks, Jared Cook – who finished as top-15 scorers (barely) at their positions. The 2016 class was only marginally better, highlighted by DeMarco Murray as a solid RB1 and Rishard Matthews and Mike Wallace on the WR2/3 borderline.

The last true impact class of offseason movers from a fantasy perspective was in 2015, when DeAngelo Williams, Darren McFadden and Frank Gore finished sixth, 13th and 14th, respectively, among running backs in an ugly year for the position, with Brandon Marshall (No. 3 WR), Jeremy Maclin (No. 15) and Michael Crabtree (No. 16) also enjoying strong seasons in new locations. 2013 and 2014 were closer to the two most recent seasons, featuring Reggie Bush, Anquan Boldin, Emmanuel Sanders and Golden Tate as the only veterans to achieve fantasy stardom in their first seasons with new teams.

2018 could very well turn out to be an exception like 2015, after a revival of the trade market – along with the availability of Kirk Cousins – created the most interesting pre-draft offseason in recent memory. Players changing teams include two of 2017's top six scorers at QB, six of the top 20 at RB, two of the top 15 at WR and the No. 6 TE.

QUARTERBACK

Kirk Cousins to Vikings, Three Years, $84 million

After averaging 4,392 passing yards, 27 passing TDs and 4.3 rushing TDs the last three years in Washington while starting 16 games each season, Cousins landed the first fully guaranteed multi-year free-agent contract. His supporting cast on offense appears comparable to what he had in 2015 and 2016, but the Vikings also boast an elite defense, something Cousins never came close to having in Washington. While the upgrade in overall team strength points toward a minor volume dip, Cousins should have enough scoring opportunities to push for a fourth consecutive season as a top-eight fantasy QB. And he might even have another level to reach.

Alex Smith to Redskins, Acquired Via Trade

The prolonged Cousins saga ended in January when Washington agreed to trade for Smith, sending slot cornerback Kendall Fuller and a third-round pick to the Chiefs. With Fuller coming off a breakout season and Smith quickly signed to a four-year, $94 million extension that includes $55 million guaranteed, the Redskins would be in a better spot if they'd simply worked things out with Cousins last offseason. The team does have a reasonable supporting cast, with a strong offensive line and a deep group of pass-catchers. That said, Smith is an extreme long shot to match last year's No. 4 fantasy finish among quarterbacks.

Case Keenum to Broncos, Two Years, $36 million

Keenum enjoyed the most unexpected of breakout seasons last year in Minnesota, ranking second among qualified QBs in completion percentage (67.6), 13th in YPA (7.4) and seventh in passer rating (98.3). His supporting cast played a big role, though the impressive receiving weapons and elite defense were somewhat offset by a shaky O-line and mediocre backfield. Oddly enough, the 30-year-old landed on a similar roster in Denver, though the overall strength is a couple steps below Minnesota. The Broncos even passed on drafting another QB, doubling down on their bet that Keenum, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will provide enough firepower for a defensive-minded roster. A rebuild likely is coming next offseason if Keenum doesn't pan out.

Tyrod Taylor to Browns , Acquired Via Trade

The Browns acquired Taylor for a third-round pick and have been adamant he will enter Week 1 as their starter ahead of No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield. On paper, this is the best supporting cast Taylor has ever had, consisting of solid performers Jarvis Landry, Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde, along with high-upside talents Josh Gordon, David Njoku, Nick Chubb, Corey Coleman and Antonio Callaway. The issue is that there might be a learning curve, and it will be tough to keep Mayfield on the bench if he looks great during training camp or if Taylor struggles early.

Sam Bradford to Cardinals, Two Years, $40 million

A league-average starter at best, Bradford managed only 7.0 YPA and a 7-8 record in 2016 for Minnesota, despite setting a since-broken NFL record for completion percentage (71.6). After he missed most of 2017 due to a persistently troublesome left knee, things cleared up enough by March to convince Arizona he was worth $15 million guaranteed. The Cardinals then drafted Josh Rosen 10th overall. Any hope for Bradford's fantasy production involves the Cards chucking the ball around to erase frequent deficits. It's a likely scenario; one that would give Arizona every incentive to test out Rosen by midseason, if not sooner.

AJ McCarron to Bills, Two Years, $8.1 Million

One of the big losers in the offseason game of QB musical chairs, McCarron was forced to settle for backup money, rather than cashing in like Brock Osweiler and Mike Glennon once did. The Bills get a player with four starts (one in the playoffs) and 174 NFL pass attempts to his name, perhaps making him a slight favorite in a training camp battle against Nathan Peterman and No. 7 overall pick Josh Allen. The Bills are utterly lacking in offensive talent, and their 2017 point differential (-57) suggests the playoff appearance was a huge fluke.

RUNNING BACK

Jerick McKinnon to 49ers, Four Years, $30 Million

The 49ers' offer was a stunner, with McKinnon getting $12 million in the first year of his deal. San Francisco reportedly got into a bidding war with the Jets, driving up the price for a player with only 12 TDs on 616 career touches and an uninspiring 4.0 yards per carry and 5.1 yards per target. Coach Kyle Shanahan was thrilled with the addition, believing McKinnon to be a strong fit in a scheme that emphasizes outside-zone rushing plays and short passes to the running backs. The 26-year-old will get his second shot at a lead role, having flamed out in 2016 while running behind a lousy offensive line in Minnesota.

Dion Lewis to Titans, Four Years, $19.8 Million

Arguably the class of the RB free-agent group, Lewis settled for a deal with only $5.75 million guaranteed, joining a Titans squad that already has a lead runner in Derrick Henry. Look no further than Lewis' injury history for an explanation, as 2017 was his first season playing double-digit games since 2011. Coming off 5.0 YPC on 180 carries with nine TDs in 16 games, Lewis again is in a multi-player backfield, only this time without Tom Brady around to boost cumulative production. Lewis figures to dominate passing downs and mix in on early downs, while Henry should lead the team in carries and goal-line work.

Carlos Hyde to Browns, Three Years, $15.25 Million

As prophesied by 49ers general manager John Lynch last offseason, Hyde was a poor fit in Kyle Shanahan's offense, averaging 3.9 yards on 240 carries and 4.0 yards on an inexplicable total of 87 targets. The Ohio native moved on to Cleveland, where he would seem to be a natural fit in a power role alongside Duke Johnson. Of course, the Browns then used the No. 35 overall pick on 227-pounder Nick Chubb, a higher-upside version of Hyde. With the two big backs competing for carries while Johnson is locked in on passing downs, Hyde could end up as nothing more than a well-compensated insurance plan.

C.J. Anderson to Panthers, One Year, $1.75 Million

Anderson rebounded from an injury-marred 2016 to produce his first 1,000-yard rushing campaign last season, but it wasn't quite enough to convince the Broncos he was more valuable than $4.5 million of cap space – a decision the team made mid-April. The late release cost him money, but the 27-year-old at least found a soft landing with a Panthers team that otherwise seemed ready to deploy 2015 fifth-round pick Cameron Artis-Payne as a replacement for Jonathan Stewart. At 5-foot-8, 224, Anderson is a natural fit for Carolina's power role, though some of Stewart's vacated carries should go to Christian McCaffrey.

LeGarrette Blount to Lions, One Year, $2 Million

Blount lost 126 carries and 16 rushing scores with the move from Foxborough to Philadelphia, yet arguably helped his reputation by managing 4.4 YPC without Tom Brady by his side. Of course, the 31-year-old didn't exactly have things tough in Philadelphia, where he ran behind an elite O-line. Blount landed a contract slightly larger than last year's, but the Lions' selection of Kerryon Johnson in the second round hints at another reduction in rushing attempts (173 last year) for the 250-pounder. With Theo Riddick locked in on passing downs, the Lions will have Blount, Johnson and Ameer Abdullah competing for carries in an offense that intends to be more balanced. Blount's value likely will hinge on goal-line work, something that's hard to predict outside of New England.

Isaiah Crowell to Jets, Three Years, $12 Million

After missing out on McKinnon, the Jets signed Crowell as a fallback option, which sounds about right in terms of skill assessment. The former Brown earned an immediate role as an undrafted rookie in 2014 and never changed much as a player, mixing occasional big games with frequent duds. The sum wasn't bad – seasonal averages of 780 rushing yards, 193 receiving yards, 5.5 touchdowns – but his only standout skill was availability (64 games in four years). The 25-year-old will compete with Bilal Powell, Elijah McGuire, Thomas Rawls and Trenton Cannon for the right to take carries behind a bad offensive line. Crowell's contract makes him the early favorite for the lead role.

WIDE RECEIVER

Jarvis Landry to Browns, Acquired Via Trade

Miami never seemed interested in paying Landry as a No. 1 receiver, instead using the franchise tag and trading him for fourth- and seventh-round picks. The Browns then gave him a five-year, $75.5 million contract with $34 million guaranteed, undeterred by career marks of 10.1 yards per reception and 7.1 YPT. The 25-year-old did set an NFL record with 400 catches through four seasons, and he finally scored more than five TDs last year. Landry will have competition from Josh Gordon to serve as Cleveland's top option in the passing game.

Brandin Cooks to Rams, Acquired Via Trade

Traded for a second straight year, Cooks profiles as a direct replacement for Sammy Watkins, who drew only 70 targets (but scored eight TDs) last season while clearing out space for Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Todd Gurley. The Rams hope to stick with the approximate formula, but they presumably wouldn't have traded a first-round pick for a wideout in a contract year if they intended to limit him to four or five targets per game. It's also reasonable to expect more deep shots out of Jared Goff, who was 19th in the league with 46 pass attempts targeted more than 20 yards downfield. Goff ranked a respectable 11th among qualified QBs in passer rating (97.6) on those attempts.

Sammy Watkins to Chiefs , Three Years, $48 Million

Upon handing Watkins a $21 million signing bonus, the Chiefs implicitly joined the chorus blaming his disappointing 2017 season on an unusual role in Los Angeles. Given his age, pedigree and impressive efficiency – career 8.8 YPT, 15.9 YPR, one TD for every 13.8 targets – Watkins is the rare top-of-the-market free agent who actually could outperform his contract if things break right. Of course, elite on-field performance won't necessarily translate to elite fantasy production in Kansas City, where Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce also demand touches. It'll be tough to keep everyone well-fed unless Patrick Mahomes is an instant star.

Allen Robinson to Bears, Three Years, $42 Million

Robinson ended up as a clear No. 2 to Watkins' No. 1 on the wide receiver market, perhaps even serving as a fallback option for the team that signed him. Robinson's contract has $18 million guaranteed, or 60 percent of what Watkins got. It's still a nice haul for the former Jaguar, considering he had 883 yards on 151 targets (5.8 YPT) in 2016 and suffered a torn ACL in Week 1 of 2017. Volume should not be an issue after the Bears and new coach Matt Nagy brought in Robinson as the most expensive piece of their passing-game overhaul. It does seems that his 2015 season (1,400 yards, 14 TDs) represents an unattainable ceiling.

Michael Crabtree to Ravens, Three Years, $21 Million

The Raiders released Crabtree in mid-March to make room for Jordy Nelson in a trade-off that's essentially a wash from a salary cap perspective. The Ravens quickly added Crabtree on what really amounts to a one-year, $8 million contract, taking a small gamble the 30-year-old can regain his 2015-16 form. Baltimore also signed John Brown and Willie Snead on smaller contracts, but Crabtree is a clear favorite to lead the team in targets, after averaging 8.5 per game in three seasons in Oakland, with 25 touchdowns in 46 games. There's no guarantee he can transfer the red-zone production to Baltimore, following a 2017 campaign in which he sunk to 6.1 YPT while Joe Flacco had a league-low 5.7 YPA.

Jordy Nelson to Raiders, Two Years, $14.2 Million

The Packers released Nelson right before the start of the league year to help free space for Jimmy Graham, trading one aging red-zone weapon coming off a down season for another. Raiders coach Jon Gruden then did the same thing, releasing Crabtree and signing Nelson on the second day of free agency. A complete non-factor when Aaron Rodgers was injured last year, Nelson now hopes to rebound in his age-33 season while competing for targets with Amari Cooper and Martavis Bryant in an offense that also wants to feed Marshawn Lynch.

Martavis Bryant to Raiders, Acquired Via Trade

While far more talented than whatever player the Raiders might've selected with the pick (No. 79 overall) they traded for him, Bryant is entering a contract year on the heels of a disappointing 2017 season. He did have 262 yards in his final four games (including playoffs) with the Steelers, whereas Oakland's other major wideout acquisition, Nelson, went out of 2017 with a resounding whimper. Gruden has repeatedly stated his intention to make Cooper the centerpiece of the passing game, likely leaving Bryant and Nelson to compete for the No. 2 gig.

Paul Richardson to Redskins, Five Years, $40 Million

Richardson accumulated more than half of his career receiving yardage last season while producing 16.0 YPR and 8.8 YPT, so Washington rewarded the 26-year-old with a deal that includes $20 million guaranteed, a hefty sum for a one-year wonder who profiles best as a low-volume deep threat. The team hopes his speed can provide the missing element in an offense otherwise stocked with underneath targets. Richardson and Josh Doctson will try to help Alex Smith continue his newfound success as a deep passer.

TIGHT END

Jimmy Graham to Packers, Three Years, $30 Million

This is a huge contract for a 31-year-old who had 5.7 YPT and seven drops (2nd in NFL) last year, though the Packers can escape after one season and $13 million. The team is betting Graham can replicate his 2017 red-zone production (10 TDs) while bouncing back toward his 2016 marks of 57.7 yards per game, 14.2 YPR and 9.7 YPT. Aaron Rodgers makes all that possible, but it also involves conviction that injuries sapped Graham's explosiveness, along with belief he can avoid similar struggles this season. Jordy Nelson's departure creates a clear opportunity in terms of red-zone workload.

Trey Burton to Bears, Four Years, $32 Million

A 2014 UDFA with 63 catches in 61 games, Burton is best known for throwing a TD to Nick Foles in the Super Bowl. That play, while memorable, doesn't explain how the 26-year-old received $18 million guaranteed. The Bears apparently were impressed by Burton's 122 yards and three TDs in the two games Zach Ertz missed last year, but this still involves a lot of projection. Coach Matt Nagy, the former Chiefs offensive coordinator, envisions Burton as his new version of Travis Kelce. But part of what makes Kelce so special is his ability to stay on the field at all times, and the 235-pound Burton may be limited to passing downs.

Eric Ebron to Colts, Two Years, $13 Million

Ebron was released by the Lions in mid-March and rebounded just fine from a financial perspective, but now finds himself on a team with a proven tight end in Jack Doyle. The Colts should be able to find opportunities for both players as they look to compensate for a lack of talent in the wideout corps, but it's hard to envision Ebron pushing anywhere close to triple-digit targets without Doyle suffering a major injury. The No. 10 overall pick from the 2014 draft has yet to display reliable hands, route-running or blocking ability to go with his first-rate athleticism. Ebron's age (25) and theoretical upside make him a sensible addition for a franchise committed to rebuilding patiently.

OTHER NOTABLE MOVES

QB Teddy Bridgewater to Jets 1Y, $6M
RB Jonathan Stewart to Giants 2Y, $6.8M
RB Frank Gore to Dolphins 1Y, $1.1M
WR Donte Moncrief to Jaguars 1Y, $9.6M
WR Albert Wilson to Dolphins 3Y, $24M
WR Taylor Gabriel to bears 4Y, $26M
WR Danny Amendola to Dolphins 2Y, $12M
WR Allen Hurns to Cowboys 2Y, $12M
WR Cameron Meredith to Saints 2Y, $9.5M
WR John Brown to Ravens 1Y, $5M
WR Ryan Grant to Colts 1Y, $5M
WR Terrelle Pryor to Jets 1Y, $4.5M
WR Mike Wallace to Eagles 1Y, $4M
WR Willie Snead to Ravens 2Y, $7M
WR Brandon Marshall to Seahawks 1Y, $1.1M
WR Jordan Matthews to Patriots 1Y, $1M
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins to JAGUARS 2Y, $10.5M
TE Ed Dickson to Seahawks 3Y, $10.7M
TE Ben Watson to Saints 1Y, $2M

This article appears in the 2018 RotoWire Fantasy Football magazine. Order the magazine now.