Staff Picks: Handicapping The Conference Title Games

Staff Picks: Handicapping The Conference Title Games

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

Congrats to Payne for a 4-0 week. He's now tied for second with DDD and me, a game behind Pianowski with three to play. 

This week, everyone but Pianowski made the Packers their best bets, though, to be fair, there are only two games from which to choose. 

 EricksonPianowskiLissPayneDel Don
Buccaneers +3 at PackersPackers BuccaneersPackersPackersPackers
Bills +3 at ChiefsBillsBillsChiefsBillsChiefs
Best BetPackersBuccaneersPackersPackersPackers
Last week's Record1-33-12-24-03-1
Playoff Record4-67-36-46-46-4
Playoff Best Bet Record1-11-11-11-10-2
Best Bet Record8-8-15-11-15-128-7-25-12
Unanimous Pick Record18-24    
Majority Pick Record118-130-8    
2019 Playoff Record6-55-66-54-77-4
2018 Playoff Record4-6-12-8-13-7-1N/A3-7-1
2017 Playoff Record5-65-65-6N/A2-9
2016 Playoff Record6-55-66-5N/A6-5
2015 Playoff Record5-62-93-8N/A1-10
2014 Playoff Record10-15-69-2N/A9-2
2013 Playoff Record5-4-23-6-24-5-2N/A4-5-2
2012 Playoff Record4-6-15-5-16-4-1N/A8-2-1
2011 Playoff Record8-35-69-2N/A7-4
2010 Playoff Record6-55-65-6N/A8-3
2009 Playoff Record5-64-71-10N/A5-6
2008 Playoff Record6-55-65-6N/A4-7
2007 Playoff Record8-33-86-5N/A2-9
2006 Playoff Record7-4N/A4-7N/AN/A
2005 Playoff Record5-6N/A3-8N/AN/A
2004 Playoff

Congrats to Payne for a 4-0 week. He's now tied for second with DDD and me, a game behind Pianowski with three to play. 

This week, everyone but Pianowski made the Packers their best bets, though, to be fair, there are only two games from which to choose. 

 EricksonPianowskiLissPayneDel Don
Buccaneers +3 at PackersPackers BuccaneersPackersPackersPackers
Bills +3 at ChiefsBillsBillsChiefsBillsChiefs
Best BetPackersBuccaneersPackersPackersPackers
Last week's Record1-33-12-24-03-1
Playoff Record4-67-36-46-46-4
Playoff Best Bet Record1-11-11-11-10-2
Best Bet Record8-8-15-11-15-128-7-25-12
Unanimous Pick Record18-24    
Majority Pick Record118-130-8    
2019 Playoff Record6-55-66-54-77-4
2018 Playoff Record4-6-12-8-13-7-1N/A3-7-1
2017 Playoff Record5-65-65-6N/A2-9
2016 Playoff Record6-55-66-5N/A6-5
2015 Playoff Record5-62-93-8N/A1-10
2014 Playoff Record10-15-69-2N/A9-2
2013 Playoff Record5-4-23-6-24-5-2N/A4-5-2
2012 Playoff Record4-6-15-5-16-4-1N/A8-2-1
2011 Playoff Record8-35-69-2N/A7-4
2010 Playoff Record6-55-65-6N/A8-3
2009 Playoff Record5-64-71-10N/A5-6
2008 Playoff Record6-55-65-6N/A4-7
2007 Playoff Record8-33-86-5N/A2-9
2006 Playoff Record7-4N/A4-7N/AN/A
2005 Playoff Record5-6N/A3-8N/AN/A
2004 Playoff Record6-5N/A4-7N/AN/A
2003 Playoff Record6-5N/A4-7N/AN/A
2002 Playoff Record6-57-45-6N/AN/A
2001 Playoff Record6-4-17-3-14-6-1N/AN/A
2020 Record121-127-8128-120-8118-130-8115-133-8118-130-8
2019 Record126-124-6140-110-6127-123-6127-123-6134-116-6
2018 Record125-122-9134-113-9141-106-9N/A120-127-9
2017 Record117-125-14128-114-14117-125-14N/A98-144-14
2016 Record140-111-5130-121-5123-128-5N/A132-119-5
2015 Record134-114-8120-128-8114-134-8N/A121-127-8
2014 Record123-128-5140-111-5135-116-5N/A128-123-5
2013 Record132-114-10118-128-10123-123-10N/A128-118-10
2012 Record110-140-6125-125-6121-129-6N/A123-127-6
2011 Record121-128-7134-115-7124-125-7N/A127-122-7
2010 Record129-122-5134-117-5126-125-5N/A134-117-5
2009 Record123-130-3132-121-3131-122-3N/A126-127-3
2008 Record132-114-10128-118-10124-122-10N/A130-116-10
2007 Record127-120118-129127-120N/A130-117
2006 Record118-129N/A139-108N/AN/A
2005 Record121-126N/A127-120N/AN/A
2004 Record124-124N/A130-118N/AN/A
2003 Record121-126118-129124-123N/AN/A
2002 Record113-136123-126141-108N/AN/A
2001 Record124-113117-120118-119N/AN/A
2000 Record123-117134-106141-99N/AN/A

This week, we have no unanimous picks. Last week we won with the Bills after going 17-23 on the regular season. We also went 3-1 on majority picks (three or more writers) to go 7-3 for the playoffs, after going 118-130-8 on the regular season. We were 23-17-1 on unanimous picks  and 130-120-6 on majority picks last year. 

WriterComment
EricksonI flip-flopped on the AFC game, so by default the Packers are the pick here.
PianowskiI don't have a strong lean on either game and mostly I'm just excited that all four teams are decent and any Super Bowl matchup will be fun. With Tampa Bay I'm betting the number; anything over three, I think you have to take the points. It was encouraging to see the Chiefs get production from their ancillary pieces last week, but they still haven't played a complete game in some time. Of course, Buffalo has probably been outplayed for two straight weeks, yet advanced anyway.
LissI went with the two favorites, but don't have a strong lean. I'd like the Chiefs at minus three best if I knew Patrick Mahomes were 100 percent, but there's no way to know that even if he's practicing all week. The Packers have been the better team than the Bucs most of the year, but the Bucs killed them in their head to head. 
PayneI was surprised at the line for the NFC Championship game. Do the Bucs whipping the Packers earlier this season tie into that? Because the Bucs losing twice to the Saints during the regular season didn't seem to matter last week. The underrated part of the Packers is their defense; I feel like Rodgers (and probably rightfully so) overshadows them. The Bills came out favorites initially and good work if you got Kansas City plus the points. A 2.5 spread means it's unlikely that will matter, and I'd rather take the positive money line than lay the vig to get the points. The Bills seem like a more complete team (how many people honestly knew who Taron Johnson was last week?) so I like them against a banged up Mahomes.
Del DonI like a teaser with the home teams this week. 

The players:

• Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2016 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Weekly Rankings. Covers and roots for the Bengals.

• Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2019 and 2020 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.

• Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2018 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes East Coast Offense, Beating the Book and the Survivor column in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.

• Kevin Payne: Staff Writer, Writes our Waiver Wire column. Roots for the Bills.

• Dalton Del Don: Fantasy Expert for Yahoo! Sports, 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the 49ers.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Liss
Chris Liss was RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio from 2001-2022.
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