Start vs. Sit: Who to Play, Who to Bench Week 9

Welcome into our Week 9 installment Start vs. Sit and things are starting to take shape across the college football landscape. The PAC-12 has effectively cannibalized itself out of the Playoff picture while Michigan has inserted itself into the conversation with a big road win in the same week that Ohio State took a tumble on the national stage.

We have a number of quality matchups to get excited about this week, including Iowa at Penn State, South Florida at Houston (major AAC implications there), and Washington State at Stanford. Then of course is the matchup nearest and dearest to my heart with the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party taking place in Jacksonville between Georgia and Florida. Between these matchups and several others across the landscape, we have a great slate of games this weekend. Let's dive in and see who the best start and sit candidates.

PLAYERS TO START

AAC

David Pindell, QB, Connecticut (vs. Massachusetts)

Well would you look at that: Connecticut is less than a touchdown underdog this week. I like to call that progress. But seriously, looking at Pindell and this matchup and there's a chance the signal-caller puts up top-5 quarterback production this week. Pindell is a dynamic playmaker that's decent as a passer and also leads the Huskies in rushing. Meanwhile, the Minutemen rank 123rd overall in S&P+, 124th against the run, and 121st against the pass. This sets up as a banner week for Pindell. SMU's James Proche has a tall task ahead of him going against Cincinnati's third-ranked passing defense, but he's still worth keeping in your lineup.

ACC

Jeff Thomas, WR, Miami (at Boston College)

I've probably established myself as the internet's biggest Jeff Thomas stan at this point and I'm not going to jump ship any time soon. Miami is coming off the bye and moving back to Malik Rosier at quarterback, and while that may not be the most exciting thing in the world to hear if you're a Miami fan, it's actually a good development for Thomas. The sophomore averaged just 3.5 targets per game while N'Kosi Perry was either starting or taking the majority of the snaps. With Rosier? 6.67 targets per game and he posted his only two 100-yard outings when Rosier was under center. Now, he is going against a competent Boston College secondary in a tough environment, but Thomas is an excellent talent that also has a rapport with Rosier that bodes well for his usage and target volume.

BIG 12

Brock Purdy, QB, Iowa State (vs. Texas Tech)

I believe in [insert hilarious nickname already used for Brock Osweiler] and submit to you that the Purd is indeed the word. The freshman had the Cyclones rolling into the bye week, leading them to wins over Oklahoma State and West Virginia while completing 36 of 48 passes (75 percent) for 572 yards and seven touchdowns. He's confirmed as the starter again with the Red Raiders coming to town, and while the Red Raiders are actually improved defensively, it's not like they had an overly high bar to clear to begin with. Look for Purdy to connect with his talented receiving corps all afternoon while also setting a new career high in pass attempts along the way.

BIG TEN

Trace McSorley, QB, Penn State (vs. Iowa)

Iowa is one of the top teams in the Big Ten West and arguably the conference as a whole, so this is a tough matchup for McSorley this weekend. McSorley, however, has proven time and again to be matchup-proof. He's completing just 55.5 percent of his passes with a 7.2 YPA in conference play, but the rushing production over that stretch more than compensates for the middling passing numbers. In four Big Ten games, McSorley has run for 411 yards and two scores on 72 attempts. His game against Ohio State comes to mind here, as it was clear that Penn State wanted the ball in his hands in a close contest when it allowed him to run it 25 times. He converted those opportunities into a whopping 175 yards on the ground. A similarly tight matchup could be in store Saturday, and considering Penn State's banged up receiving corps, McSorley could be in for another big day on the ground against the Hawkeyes. If we want to go a bit deeper down the well for Big Ten options, the Maryland running back tandem of Ty Johnson and Anthony McFarland are both in line for big outings against Illinois.

CONFERENCE USA

C.J. Worton, WR, Florida International (at Western Kentucky)

Worton is coming off his worst game of the season and it came against Rice. Alright, I'm calm. I'll stop yelling. (Come on man, Rice?) There's still reason to keep the faith, though. Worton has seen 35 targets -- not a huge volume but still tops on FIU by a big margin -- and averages a whopping 14.1 YPT. Western Kentucky ranks outside the top 100 in pass defense per S&P+ and is short on answers when it comes to stopping a player like Worton. Bet on the talent, bet on the matchup, bet on Worton returning to form this week.

MAC

LeVante Bellamy, RB, Western Michigan (vs. Toledo)

There's a chill in the air and #MACtion is back in our lives. Things are good. Kicking things off in MAC land this week is a showdown between two of the conference's best offenses in Western Michigan and Toledo. Bellamy does cede carries to Jamauri Bogan, who leads the team with nine touchdowns, but I'm betting on Bellamy to find the end zone this week. A big-play threat, Bellamy averages 6.73 yards per carry, which ranks fourth among running backs with at least 100 carries. Toss in the fact that Toledo ranks 125th against the run in S&P+ and has coughed up 15 runs of 20+ yards and we have a great spot for Bellamy.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Nico Evans, RB, Wyoming (at Colorado State)

It's hard to find many run defenses worse than Colorado State's It's also hard to find many teams that lean on the run more than Wyoming, which runs it 58.4 percent of the time. Evans is clearly past his early-season injury and has racked up at least 130 yards in three of his last four games, including a 141-yard outing against Boise State. The runway is clear for Evans to take off in Fort Collins this weekend. Look for a top-40 number out of Evans when the dust settles Friday night. UNLV's Lexington Thomas is also in for a big game against San Jose State's porous defense.

PAC-12

Gardner Minshew, QB, Washington State (at Stanford)

The Stanford mystique is dead. At least for 2018. This simply isn't the quality of Stanford team we've grown accustomed to over the years, especially on defense. Minshew, meanwhile, is on a season-long tear. He leads the nation in yards per game (392) by a margin of 42 yards over the next-most prolific quarterback, Ohio State's Dwayne Haskins. The East Carolina transfer has thrown all over every team he's faced, including defenses far superior to Stanford's. He has also thrown at least three touchdowns in all but one game this season. Don't let the Stanford road matchup dissuade you off of Minshew this week.

SEC

D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia (vs. Florida)

Swift has fallen short of preseason expectations, and while he's played in every game, he hasn't been 100 percent healthy, either. Now that Swift is coming off a bye, he's in a spot for his most productive game of the season against the Gators. In sparse work against Vanderbilt and LSU, Swift combined for 122 yards on 19 carries (6.4 YPC). Florida, meanwhile, is somewhat vulnerable against the run and has struggled with open field tackling, which is where Swift poses the biggest threat. Swift is also the Bulldogs' most gifted pass catcher and will have a role in that facet of the game as well. He is a tad dinged up as I'm writing this, so it'll be important to monitor his status throughout the week, but if Swift is good to go Saturday he'll be in line for a heavy workload.

SUN BELT

Javonis Isaac, TE, Arkansas State (at Louisiana-Lafayette)

There's some boom-or-bust to Isaac as a fantasy asset with just 11 targets through seven games. What has he done with those 11 targets, though? Nine catches, 181 yards, three touchdowns. Not bad. He also seems to be getting more involved in the offense, as evidenced by his three targets a week ago versus Georgia State. Provided he continues to get looks down the seam this week against Louisiana-Lafayette, Isaac has proven to be a big-play threat with solid touchdown episode.

PLAYERS TO SIT

AAC

Darnell Mooney, WR, Tulane (at Tulsa)

Tulsa is making the switch at quarterback this week, going to LSU transfer Justin McMillan over Jonathan Banks. McMillan is talented enough to get this offense on track, but he looked shaky in his first start against Cincinnati earlier this month. Still, this is a run-first offense that goes to the ground 59.28 percent of the time, ranking 25th in the nation. So now we have Mooney operating in a low-volume passing attack with a new quarterback at the helm while going on the road to face a surprisingly decent Tulsa pass defense (31st in S&P+). I'd hold off on starting Mooney in this spot.

ACC

Jakobi Meyers, North Carolina State (at Syracuse)

The Wolf Pack is looking to bounce back after getting bullied by Clemson in Week 8. While Syracuse isn't necessarily a good team, it is pesky, especially in the carrier dome. Meanwhile, Meyers is coming on strong of late with 18 grabs for 160 yards and a score on 20 targets over the last two games and is re-establishing himself as a strong option opposite Kelvin Harmon. Still, this is a sneakily tricky spot for the Wolf Pack offense this week in a hostile environment against a Syracuse pass defense that ranks 32nd against the pass in S&P+. Kelvin Harmon is matchup proof, but Meyers isn't quite there yet and is a risky play this week as a result.

BIG 12

Taylor Cornelius, QB, Oklahoma State

Cornelius has been something of a boom-or-bust type quarterback this year, notching three games with at least four touchdown passes while also having four games with one-or-fewer touchdowns. If we were attempting to measure where Texas falls on the boom-or-bust likelihood scale, it'd be decidedly on the bust side of the ledger. Texas is rested off the bye week and has the Big 12's best defense in my mind (second best according to S&P+). Cornelius is also mistake-prone, something Texas has a track record of using to its advantage considering the Longhorns' eight interceptions through seven games. The senior quarterback won't be a disaster Saturday, but he's outside my top-40 for this week, meaning you should probably look elsewhere at the position.

BIG TEN

D.J. Knox, RB, Purdue (at Michigan State)

It's tough to be scared of Michigan State after Sparty got pants'd this past weekend. It's also hard not to be bullish on any Purdue player after the Boilers pulled off the best win of Week 8 with a dismantling of Ohio State. Still, a couple things hold true. Most notably, Michigan State still has a very imposing run defense that ranks second in rushing yards allowed per game (79..57) and second in S&P+. Even though Michigan ran for 183 yards on Sparty, it did so on 53 carries. Knox isn't a must-sit necessarily, but his rank outside the top-30 this week makes him less a RB2 consideration and more of a lower end flex option depending on how affected your team is by the bye weeks. In any case, this week projects at the lower range of outcomes we've come to expect from Knox.

CONFERENCE USA

Teddy Veal, WR, Louisiana Tech (at Florida Atlantic)

Yes, Veal is coming off his best game of the season with an 11-catch, 103-yard effort. But it must be taken with a grain of salt as it came in a home matchup against UTEP. Heading into that game, Veal averaged 4.7 catches for 58.0 yards per game with zero touchdowns. He still has zero touchdowns and heads into a tougher matchup on the road this week against an Owl team looking to get off the mat. Furthermore, Adrian Hardy is still WR1 for the Bulldogs with his explosive 17.0 YPR average and five touchdowns on 66 targets. Veal was a fine streaming option a week ago, not so much this time around.

MAC

Tre Harbison, RB, Northern Illinois (at BYU)

Now, BYU isn't quite the team we thought they might be after they pulled off the upset win over Wisconsin. The Cougars don't have a world-beating defense by any means, but it's definitely better than what some of the numbers may suggest when you account for the level of competition they've faced. Harbison, meanwhile, has been solid but unspectacular thus far this year, averaging 4.9 yards per carry over 90 attempts. Even with the RB1 moniker in an offense that runs it 55.9 percent of the time, Harbison could struggle this weekend.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Cole McDonald, QB, Hawaii (at Fresno State)

Hot take, right? McDonald has been QB1 in fantasy all season long with his 3.2 passing touchdown per game rate to go with his near 300-yard per game average. This isn't a "buhhh Hawai'i is on the road so McDonald is bad" take, either. His home/road splits have been fairly even. This has to do with McDonald facing a defense that's among the nation's best. Fresno State ranks eighth overall in S&P+, third against the run, and fourth against the pass. When it's all said and done, this could end up being McDonald's worst game of the season.

PAC-12

Joshua Kelley, RB, UCLA

Kelly extended his 100-yard streak to four games with a 136-yard, one-touchdown effort Saturday against Arizona. He is rolling right now and those strong numbers aren't just coming against weak defenses; two of those 100-yard outings have come against the likes of Washington and California. However, this is the week the streak comes to an end. Utah hasn't given up 100 yards on the ground to a team -- not just a rusher -- since Week 3. Since then, Utah has given up zero, 42, 72, and 73 yards in its last four games. Kelley is sure to get a high carry volume, but the Utes can afford to sell out to stop him and make either Wilton Speight or Dorian Thompson-Robinson beat them through the air.

SEC

Benny Snell, RB, Kentucky (at Missouri)

The hot takes keep on coming. Now, before I go too far, I don't think Snell is outside the top 24 for running backs this week. I do think, however, that this matchup is far tougher than one might think at first glance. I'm not merely basing this off of Missouri containing Memphis' rushing attack that didn't have a fully healthy Darrell Henderson, either. Missouri holds opponents to 3.77 yards per carry and has surrendered just one rushing touchdown on the year. Look for Snell to push for his usual 20-plus carries, but if the touchdowns aren't there (he has just two touchdowns in his last three weeks), the yardage might not be enough to offset the lack of scoring upside. On the other side of this game, I see Missouri's offense struggling to move the ball on the Wildcats.

SUN BELT

Shai Werts, QB, Georgia Southern (vs. Appalachian State)

Werts generally has a safe enough floor as a rusher to where he won't completely burn you on a given week. Going against Appalachian State, as has been a common theme in the Sun Belt section of these articles this year, is a different story. The Mountaineers play a disciplined brand of defense that cuts down on big plays from opponents and they're limiting teams to just 2.97 yards per carry. If Werts is shut down on the ground, he won't be able to salvage his stat line through the air due Georgia State's offensive philosophy that runs the ball just under 85 percent of the time.