Start vs. Sit: Who to Play, Who to Bench Week 10

The calendar's turned to November and we have our first glimpse of how the college football committee views the nation's elite teams after yet another insane weekend where multiple highly ranked teams stumbled. We have another tremendous slate awaiting us this weekend, highlighted by Bedlam and the always-intense Alabama-LSU game.

PLAYERS TO START

AAC

Davon Grayson, WR, East Carolina (at Houston): Let's get two things out of the way first: 1) East Carolina is bad. 2) Houston is not that bad. With that, Houston is a huge home favorite this week over the lowly Pirates. East Carolina is decidedly pass-happy, throwing it 53.2 percent of the time (31st in FBS), and Grayson is the clear top dog out wide with 71 targets in eight games. He's seen less than nine targets just once since conference play began and he has at least 96 yards or a score in each of his last five games. Also, Houston is a bit susceptible to the pass, allowing just less than 270 yards through the air per game – just half a yard less than Kansas. Grayson should produce in what may be an otherwise ugly game for the Pirates.

ACC

Josh Jackson, QB, Virginia Tech (at Miami): The Canes might be the higher-ranked team and this is undoubtedly the toughest road test of Jackson's young career, but Jackson isn't like most first-year signal callers. Jackson's unique poise was on display in Tech's opening-week victory over West Virginia and the instances in which he's looked out of his comfort zone (outside of the Clemson game) have been few and far between. Miami has an upper-echelon defense, especially in passing situations (25th in S&P+ on passing downs). Jackson, however, is essentially matchup-proof, and Miami might be a bit of a paper tiger considering its undefeated but shaky resume. I smell an upset, and Jackson will be a big part of it Saturday down in Miami.

BIG 12

Toneil Carter, RB, Texas (at TCU): There's some risk involved with deploying a running back against TCU's run defense that ranks third in the nation in rush yards allowed per game (77.3). Also, Texas' running back rotation has been nebulous at best this year. However, there might be some clarity now in the form of Carter, a freshman who made the most of his increased opportunities Saturday with 15 carries for 70 yards and score. Chris Warren continues to prove he's not the answer at running back and Kyle Porter is banged up. Things are shaping up for Carter and fellow freshman Daniel Young to carry the load Saturday, and Carter's versatility as a pass-catcher gives him the edge for my pick.

BIG TEN

Ty Johnson, RB, Maryland (at Rutgers): The Scarlet Knights are showing some signs of life as a program under Chris Ash, but they still have a long ways to go. They're 77th against the run in S&P+ and will be facing Ty Johnson, one of the Big Ten's most explosive running backs with a 6.82 YPC mark. What's more, Rutgers has been absolutely bullied on the ground since the start of Big Ten play, allowing a conference-high 234 yards per game on the ground -- a full 16 yards worse than Illinois' abysmal defense. Look for Johnson to run wild Saturday and snap his streak of four straight games without running for 100 yards or a touchdown.

CONFERENCE USA

Spencer Brown, RB, UAB (vs. Rice): There aren't many teams that run the ball more than the Blazers, who go to the ground 58.45 percent of the time -- and with good reason. Brown, a bruising 6-foot, 235-pound freshman has already established himself as one of Conference USA's best runners with 909 yards and seven scores through his first eight games. Getting a matchup against Rice, which ranks 105th against the run in S&P+, makes him a borderline RB1 this week with the potential to put up the most fantasy points of any C-USA skill player this week. For what it's worth, I also probably wouldn't shy away from using Mike White this week even though he's punching up a weight class and going against Vanderbilt. I also think Jeffrey Wilson on North Texas gets back on track against LA Tech.

MAC

Marcus Childers, QB, Northern Illinois (at Toledo): The Rockets seem to be the class of the MAC this year, but the Huskies aren't far behind thanks to the recent play of Childers. The freshman quarterback has accounted for 11 total touchdowns in the last four weeks with just one pick. He has the third-highest passer rating in the MAC over the last month, as well. Yes, this is a tough matchup, but Childers has proved to be capable of putting up strong production even against tough competition.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Cedrick Wilson, WR, Boise State (vs. Nevada): At the start of the year, Wilson looked like he'd be a top-5 fantasy wideout thanks to huge target, catch and touchdown volume. However, Boise State's quarterback shuffle has sapped some of Wilson's production as he averaged just 65.8 yards per game in October. It does appear that Boise State is trying to get him more involved in the offense again, though, with Wilson seeing 10 targets his last time out. He draws about as soft a matchup as you can get in the Mountain West with Nevada coming to town Saturday. Look for Wilson to get fed early and often and turn those targets into big production.

PAC-12

Tyler Vaughns, WR, USC (vs. Arizona): Yes, Arizona is becoming the darling of the Pac-12 with Khalil Tate's meteoric rise, but the Cats still can't stop anyone's passing attack. Arizona is one of three teams allowing at least 300 yards per game through the air, joined only by East Carolina and Connecticut. This sets up extremely well for Vaughns, who is coming off the best game of his young career with six grabs for 126 yards and two touchdowns on eight targets. He's averaged nine targets the last three weeks and has the physical tools to convert those looks into starter-level production against a secondary that hasn't seen many receivers with his level of talent.

SEC

Lamical Perine, RB, Florida (at Missouri): It looks like Malik Davis' freshman season is over after suffering a knee injury, which leaves Florida's backfield pecking order in flux. If last week's game against Georgia is any indication, Perine should have a decent grasp on the starting job after taking 16 carries for 93 yards against one of the nation's top run defenses. The competition loosens up this week with a trip to Columbia on tap, facing a Mizzou squad that's given up 21 rushing touchdowns in eight games. The strength of Florida's offense is in its run game, and that means Perine should be in line for a healthy amount of carries against a soft defense.

SUN BELT

Tyler Rogers, QB, New Mexico State (at Texas State): Rogers is coming off a rough outing against Arkansas State where he completed 50 percent of his passes for a season-low 221 yards and a pair of interceptions. Well, playing Texas State is usually a good way to get back on track. The lowly Bobcats are giving up just less than 30 points per game and haven't picked off a pass yet this season, which is a nice factor considering Rogers can be a bit careless with the ball. Rogers should bounce back to his usual form where he throws multiple touchdowns and pushes for 300 yards Saturday.

PLAYERS TO SIT

AAC

Bryant Shirreffs, QB, Connecticut (vs. South Florida): Shirreffs has been a pleasant surprise this year with 13 passing touchdowns against just four picks while establishing a passer rating that ranks ahead of the likes of Riley Ferguson and Ben Hicks – two of the best quarterbacks in the AAC. This is a very tough matchup this week, however, even with South Florida showing some vulnerability in its first loss last week. South Florida has allowed nine passing touchdowns this season. How many picks does its secondary have? 16. Seems like a nice ratio. The Bulls also hold opponents to less than 6.0 yards per attempt. Shirreffs is a fine option against softer competition, but the bottom can fall out against tougher opponents.

ACC

John Wolford, QB, Wake Forest (at Notre Dame): Going to South Bend to face Notre Dame this season is daunting enough on its own. Doing so in your first game without your best offensive player (Greg Dortch (sad face emoji)) makes it even more of an uphill climb. Wolford has been much improved this year, completing 65.7 percent of his passes with a 15:2 TD:INT mark to go with his 9.2 yards per attempt. However, Dortch was a huge part of that success, and Wake really doesn't have anything close to a comparable replacement. A clunky offensive game plan going against a scary Notre Dame defense is enough to stay away from Wolford this week.

BIG 12

All TCU players (Kenny Hill, Darius Anderson, John Diarse, Jalen Reagor, Kyle Hicks) vs. Texas: The bad news? TCU just saw its playoff hopes evaporate after mustering only seven points on the road in Ames. The good news? TCU gets to return home, where it averages 48.3 points per game. The problem, though, is that hasn't faced an even competent defense at home this year, and Texas is more than just OK on that side of the ball. The Horns rank in the top 20 against the run and top 30 against the pass, according to S&P+, and even managed to hold Oklahoma State's video game-esque offense to just 13 points. So, not only is this a tough matchup, but TCU's offense distributes the ball so well that none of the aforementioned options are reliable sources of production anyway. Fade TCU's offense this week.

BIG TEN

Akrum Wadley, RB, Iowa (vs. Ohio State): Wadley's yards per carry has dropped nearly three full yards this season, going from 6.43 last year to 3.9 this season. If Iowa is going to stand a chance against a red-hot Buckeye team, it'll need Wadley to tear off chunk yardage rather than the "three yards in a cloud of dust" routine he's done most of the season. The odds of that coming to fruition? Pretty slim. I mean, look what Ohio State just did to Saquon Barkley when he was used as the ball carrier Saturday, holding the Heisman favorite to 2.1 yards per carry. If Barkley can struggle to that extent against Ohio State, I shudder to think of what the Buckeyes will do to Wadley and the Hawkeyes on Saturday.

CONFERENCE USA

Tyler King, Keion Davis, Marshall (at Florida Atlantic): In terms of raw numbers, FAU's run defense has been poor this season, allowing 198.8 YPG on the ground, which ranks the Owls second to last in that category in Conference USA. However, those numbers are skewed by early season games against Navy and Wisconsin that resulted in nearly 800 rushing yards allowed. The Owls have stiffened up against the run since the start of conference play with the third-best rush defense in against Conference USA opponents. What's more, King and Davis split carries so evenly that they effectively cap each other's ceiling every week. If this was an easier matchup, King or Davis would be viable flex plays. Against a red-hot FAU team, though? I'd look elsewhere if possible.

MAC

Shakif Seymour, RB, Toledo (vs. Northern Illinois): Seymour's been an interesting play over the last month, outproducing Art Thompkins to be the top backup behind Terry Swanson. The issue is that most of his strong work has been done in blowout type scenarios. That doesn't seem to be in the cards this week against an NIU squad that ranks in the top-10 nationally in S&P+ defense. Look for the Rockets to stick with their veterans Wednesday in what should be a defensive struggle, which would leave very little carries for Seymour.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Nick Stevens, QB, Colorado State (at Wyoming): This comes with a bit of a caveat as I think Stevens still warrants a start in two-quarterback formats, but he's nowhere near as highly ranked as he usually is this week with a tough matchup in store. Stevens and company are going on the road against not just one of the best pass defenses in the Mountain West, but one of the better overall defenses in the nation. The Cowboys are holding opponents to just 19 points per game and has a FBS-leading 24 takeaways. That's concerning for Stevens owners after he recklessly tossed three picks against a much less imposing Air Force team last week. Again, Stevens is still a fine play in multi-QB formats, but he's well outside the top-14 quarterbacks in my eyes for Week 10.

PAC-12

Bryce Bobo, WR, Colorado (at Arizona State): Bobo has put together a fine season thus far, hauling in a team-high 45 receptions for 485 yards through nine games. His production is obviously tied to Steven Montez, though, and that's where I'm worried this week. Montez struggles mightily on the road:

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M (vs. Auburn): Like the Bobo blurb above, Kirk is a fine receiver with a quarterback problem. He's the clear No. 1 option in the Aggies' passing game, but Kellen Mond is still working through his growing pains as a true freshman quarterback. Also, Auburn is coming off a bye with an extra week to scheme Kirk and negate his impact. Elsewhere in the SEC, I'm not necessarily advising to bench Derrius Guice this week, and I don't think he'll struggle to the extent Leonard Fournette did last year, but his ceiling for this game is about 80 yards and a score. So do with that what you will.

SUN BELT

Taylor Lamb, QB, Appalachian State (at Louisiana Monroe): On paper this is an extremely favorable matchup for Lamb, who plays a porous ULM secondary that allows 287 passing yards per game. Lamb, however, has faced some suspect defenses throughout the season with middling results. He went a combined 29 of 47 for 203 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions against New Mexico State and Idaho. I don't anticipate a disastrous outing from Lamb, but I have my doubts about him truly capitalizing on this soft matchup on the road.