College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 9

CHRIS' PICKS

Another 2-3 week thanks to some bad luck, or awful football, with Cincinnati turning the ball over three times and missing three field goals to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Coming off consecutive losing weeks and with two Friday selections below, you'll know what to fade Saturday!

Louisiana Tech +3.5 at Florida Atlantic (Friday)

What has happened to Lane Kiffin's bunch? There issues seem to come mainly on the defensive side, where they rank 107th against the rush and 101st against the pass. The Owls are 1-6 ATS to date while the Bulldogs are 3-1 ATS on the road. LaTech allows only 3.76 yards per carry, suggesting FAU won't explode offensively, and they bring a balanced offensive attack that should put points up, possibly winning a tight contest.

Utah -10 at UCLA (Friday)

Utah leads the nation in rush defense, allowing 74.6 yards per game, and while the Bruins likely weren't leaning on their 85th ranked rushing attack, that's going to put a lot of pressure on quarterback Wilton Speight's arm. Speight is coming off of just his eighth 200-yard passing game in 18 appearances in the last three years, throwing multiple touchdowns just six times. The Utes allows 17.7 ppg (16th) while UCLA allows 31.3 (96th). Nothing suggests a deviation from these norms, which leads to a safe cover.

Houston -7.5 vs. South Florida

I'd feel better if we knew Ed Oliver was fully healthy to plug the middle of the Cougars line, but South Florida is a complete fraud of an unbeaten team. its best win might be over FCS Elon, which beat powerhouse JMU. Otherwise, beating Georgia Tech, UMass, Illinois, ECU, UConn and Tulsa does little for me. With two common opponents, UH is +37 compared to USF's +8. Quarterback D'Eriq King has a 23:3 TD:INT ratio, leading the Cougars to at least 40 points in every game to date. It's a major step up in class for the Bulls, and they won't keep up.

Tennessee +7.5 at South Carolina

South Carolina is just average. Jake Bentley has only 10 TD passes (and seven INTs) while averaging a career-low 6.89 yards per attempt, while the ground game has managed just five rushing scores in six games. I'm worried about USC being fresh, while UT has to overcome the beating that Alabama puts on everyone. But there are signs the Vols are improving, especially offensively, putting up decent point totals on UF, Alabama and Auburn, all better defenses that South Carolina. I expect a lower scoring affair, and as such, the points seem to high. So long as Alabama doesn't beat the Volunteers twice, there's at least a chance of an upset.

Clemson –17 at Florida State

Clemson's defensive line against Florida State's offensive line is one of the biggest mismatches of the year, with the Tigers ranking fifth in tackles for loss and the Seminoles ranking 127th in TFL allowed. Clemson's defense also checks in 14th against the run, fifth against the pass and third in points allowed. Its offense looks to be peaking too, with Trevor Lawrence coming off of a career-high 380 yards. A noon kick awaits as well, taking away much of the home field FSU may have gained under the lights. This doesn't look like it will be competitive.

Last week: 2-3; Season: 21-18-1


GREG'S PICKS

Although it goes against all logic, after last week's performance, I'm convinced there is an unseen barrier that rears its ugly head whenever I get to 3-1, that prevents me from going 4-1. I managed to navigate this unseen barrier earlier this season, but if you look back through my results over the past two seasons, it's been nearly impossible to post anything better than 3-2. That said, I've gone 3-2 more often than the inverse, which is a good thing, but still, it's annoying when 4-1 is in your grasp, only to have it taken away by an Arizona team that suddenly figured out how to move the ball, but I digress. Hidden within my 3-2 record last week was a win that can only be described as miraculous. This miraculous win, of course, was the over in the Purdue game, which had no business going over, but as I always say, the breaks even out. As for the others, the wins came easy – Nebraska and Alabama – and the losses, MSU and UCLA, were only close for about a half.



Minnesota +2.5 vs. Indiana



Last week was a bad spot for Minnesota, but a week later, the Gophers are back in a good spot. Motivation and urgency play a huge role in every sporting contest and college football is no exception. This week, the urgency falls squarely on the Gophers as they are four weeks into the Big Ten scheduled and they've yet to win in conference. The Hoosiers are improved this season, but I don't think they've earned road-favorite status against anyone outside of Rutgers or maybe Illinois.


Over 55 Utah at UCLA

I was high on UCLA last week, but after watching nearly every minute of that game, it's clear that while the offense might be figuring things out, the defense still has a long way to go. The Bruins' defense has essentially shown up once this season, against Cal two weeks ago. Utah is hitting on all cylinders on offense, posting scores of 40 or more over its last three games. Utah will score at will and UCLA should get some as well, certainly enough to get over this reasonable total.

Northwestern +7 vs. Wisconsin



The Wildcats nearly lost to Rutgers last week. Perhaps they were looking ahead. Who knows? It really doesn't matter because heavy road favorite is not the identity of this team. The Wildcats are the scrappy underdog, and they get to play that role again this week when the Badgers come to town. Wisconsin got back on track last week, but the Badgers have some problems that won't get fixed in one week. This is not the Badger team we've become accustomed to over the last 20 years. The Cats fight and claw their way to cover and possibly a win. 



Missouri -7.5 vs. Kentucky

Kentucky is in the midst of a very solid season, relatively, but a problem has emerged the last month – the Wildcats have no offense outside of Benny Snell Jr. That one-dimensional offense faces a Tigers defense that yields just 3.68 yards per carry on the ground. In addition to the issues the Cats will have on offense, they face a Tigers offense that got back on track in a big way last week with 65 points against the Memphis Tigers.

Kansas +13.5 vs. TCU



As RotoWire colleague Chris Liss of Beating the Book fame says, sometimes you just have to hold your nose and take a bad team, or something to that effect. Most weeks, there are more games than I can fit into this piece, but this week, it's pretty thin. I originally circled Kansas as a potential pick and waited to find something better, but a better option never presented itself. This pick is mainly based on the issues that TCU is having. The Horned Frogs are coming off a terrible loss, they are in the midst of a bad season and their most dynamic player, KaVontae Turpin, just got the boot. Oh, and their starting QB might be out for this one. A lot of turmoil plus little motivation against lowly Kansas, equals a poor effort this week.

Last Week: 3-2; Season: 23-17