College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 2

CHRIS' PICKS

A winning week to open the season feels like a letdown following FSU's dismal showing Monday night. Week 2 is a classic overreaction week to the one game most team's have played. With that in mind, I'll openly admit to being stuck in central Pennsylvania last weekend amidst repeated flash floods, which somehow still allowed my son's soccer tournament to happen. That's relevant in that I watched few games, so hopefully these picks are fresh and not too focused on the season's opening games.

Liberty +9.5 at Army

I picked on Army last week, while also not having the guts to admit how much I loved Liberty as an outright winner over ODU. Hopefully, I'm not going to the well too often, too quickly. Army, predictably, struggled to run at Duke last week with a new quarterback. It surprisingly faired well throwing the ball, but that's not its game. Liberty, on the other hand, took its offense from FCS to FBS in stride, hanging 52 points on the Monarchs. The Flames have a terrific quarterback-wide receiver combo in Stephen Calvert and Antonio Gandy-Golden, and I think they'll continue to score at West Point. I worry a little the Flames will press if the Knights' offense scores while burning a bunch of clock, but this isn't the juggernaut Army offense from a year ago. Liberty has a great shot at an outright win, so getting 10 points sits well with me.

Wisconsin –34.5 vs. New Mexico

Check available lines for sure, as half a point could make a huge difference. Not much analysis is required. Wisconsin is the far superior team that didn't play particularly well in its opener against Western Kentucky. That game had a similar line, and I'd likely take the Hilltoppers to beat New Mexico on a neutral field. That standard reasoning has Wisconsin covering comfortably. New Mexico likely needs to top 14 points to flirt with covering, a total it's topped just three times in its last nine losses.

Central Michigan –4.5 vs. Kansas

This is a bit of a lazy pick that I'll hate counting against my record if it misses. But Kansas has lost 46 consecutive road games, a streak dating to 2009. The Jayhawks are coming off of a loss to Nichols State, while Central Michigan at least battled against Kentucky. This game opened at –7 in favor of the Chippewas, and that it's moved 2.5 points scares me. But I'm taking the bait – give me a unit against Kansas until the streak is snapped.

Clemson –12.5 at Texas A&M

I find whatever Clemson's plan under center is to be largely irrelevant. The Tigers still have a world-class defense that boasts an immovable front four and are going to make life miserable for quarterback Kellen Mond and running back Trayveon Williams. Mond completed less than 40 percent of his throws in four games last year, which should allow Clemson to key on Williams while disguising coverages and forcing Mond into mistakes. Last week, Alabama showed out and made a statement; it's now Clemson's turn to return serve.

Virginia +6.5 at Indiana

This line has stabilized, having opened at the current number before promptly falling to five, and now back to 6.5. The Cavaliers look like a live dog capable of winning outright. Bryce Perkins looked dynamic in his debut under center, and while the game and the road trip are a clear step up in class, he'll have running back Jordan Ellis and hybrid Olamide Zaccheaus to lean on. The Hoosiers seem to be lacking an identity still, with no clear cut signal caller and a backfield that saw its lead back go for just 3.5 yards per carry across 20 totes.

Buyer Beware: I'm not saying to avoid these picks, but there are a handful of games that have seen fairly significant line movement since opening. They include: TCU –22.5 (from 19.5), Michigan –28 (25.5), Purdue –16.5 (14), Oklahoma –30 (25.5), Memphis –7 (3.5), Baylor –15 (11.5) and Arkansas –14 (11.5) which I still like, just less than I did Monday.

Last week: 3-2

GREG'S PICKS

The more things change … I picked up right where I left off last season during Week 1, with yet another 3-2 finish. Last year it felt like 90 percent of my weeks resulted in either 3-2 or 2-3 finishes. I will never complain about a winning week, though, even if it was just one game over .500. A quick recap of the picks from last week. A rough start as my Thursday and Friday night picks missed, and weren't really that close. New Mexico State is as bad as we thought, and Wisconsin tends to start slowly, well, at least against the spread anyhow. Outside of an easy win and cover from LSU, the wins did not come easy. Ohio State looked great on offense, but terrible on defense. Fortunately, the Buckeyes got just enough stops to cover the number. Auburn needed a late score to cover the number and that's just what the Tigers did. As we head into Week 2, we can start to lean on what we've learned from the first week of the season, so it goes without saying that I'm more confident this week. 



Houston (-3.5) vs. Arizona



There was plenty of excitement surrounding Arizona QB Khalil Tate entering this season and then we collectively discovered that the Wildcats planned to wrap him up in the pocket or at least, that's what it looked like the plan was last week. Tate wasn't his normal mobile self, and it's too early to tell if that's by design or if there is some other reason. If the Wildcats plan to do that all season, it could be a long season as their offense was entirely punchless last week. Houston had a lot of questions entering this season, but the Cougars looked solid after a sluggish start at Rice. In a battle or marquee names, Houston's Ed Oliver will make the biggest impact as the Cougars cruise to victory.


Utah State (-24) vs. New Mexico State



It's hard to remember a team that looked as bad in its first two games as New Mexico State, and although the lines are going to catch up with the Aggies at some point, I don't think it will be this week. The Aggies are simply not a Division I football team now. Their WRs drop balls thrown right at their chests and nobody on defense is capable of a solo tackle. We can all agree that NMST might be the worst team in major college football, but that alone is not enough reason to fade the Aggies every week. The situation has to be right and, fortunately for us, it is this week. Utah State is a solid team, coming off a solid showing at No. 11 MSU last week. Sure, these Aggies lost as well, but that will work in our favor this week as they won't overlook anyone. Utah State put up 31 points on what should be a decent defense last week, imagine what it can do against a non-existent defense this week. 



Fresno State (+2.5) at Minnesota

The Gophers won by 38 points last week and the Bulldogs won by 66 points. Neither team is as good as those scores would indicate, but the Bulldogs are probably closer to their Week 1 selves than the Gophers. Fresno State's first-week win was just a continuance of the Bulldogs impressive 2017 season, while the Gophers are still a mystery as it's impossible to glean anything from facing New Mexico State. Fresno State returns most of its starters from a team that beat Boise State and Houston down the stretch last season while the Gophers are still in a transition phase in year two of the P.J. Fleck era. The Gophers are favored because they are at home and reside in the Big Ten, but the Bulldogs are the better team.

FAU (-9.5) vs. Air Force



FAU looked terrible last week and everyone saw it. What looked like a possible, albeit unlikely, upset on paper, quickly turned into a rout as Oklahoma was relentless out of the gate. It would be easy to think less of FAU, but we have to remember that this team was pretty good last year and quite honestly, we have no idea how good Oklahoma is. The Sooners could be really good this year and who knows, we might look back on the game from last week and give FAU a pass a couple months from now. I expect FAU to look more like the team from last year rather than the team from last week when Air Force comes to town. As for Air Force, this isn't the same Falcons team of a decade ago that was a staple of bowl season. This Falcon team is projected to finish last in the MWC this season after surrounding nearly six yards per carry late last season.

Kentucky (+14) at Florida

It seems like the college football world wants Florida to be an elite team again, and although the Gators may be on their way back with new coach Dan Mullen, I'll have to see it before I believe it. The Gators looked sharp against Charleston Southern last week, but there's nothing to learn from that effort. Kentucky looked decent against CMU, but again, there's not much we can use there. This pick is really about how these teams looked last year and while Florida should be better this season, I'm not sure the Gators have improved enough – yet, to win by more than two touchdowns. 



Last Week: 3-2, Season: 3-2