College Football DFS Picks: Week 1 Thursday Slate Plays and GPP Targets

College Football DFS Plays: Week 1 Thursday Slate Picks, Strategy and Breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel

After a smaller grouping of games in Week 0, the college football season kicks into full swing with several games occurring Thursday. We're covering the Thursday night slate for DraftKings and FanDuel, but as is often the case, the two sites differ in the games available for their main slate contests. We'll begin our recommendations for the shared games, and then offer some additional targets for DraftKings' 11-game Thursday slate. FanDuel's Thursday Main slate has seven games.

Week 1 College Football Odds: Thursday Slate

Tennessee (-15) vs. Ball State O/U: 67.5

Oklahoma State (-21) vs. Central Michigan O/U: 59.5

Pittsburgh (-7.5) vs. West Virginia O/U: 52

Missouri (-19.5) vs. Louisiana Tech O/U: 60

Penn State (-3.5)  and @ Purdue O/U: 53.5

Minnesota (-36.5) vs. New Mexico State O/U: 52.5

Central Florida  (-37.5) vs. South Carolina State O/U: 52 

Wake Forest (-32.5) vs. VMI O/U: 68  (DRAFTKINGS ONLY)

Northern Illinois (-33.5) vs. Eastern Illinois O/U: N/A (DRAFTKINGS ONLY)

Arizona State (-25.5) vs. Northern Arizona O/U: 50.5 (DRAFTKINGS ONLY)

Fresno State (-39.5) vs. Cal Poly O/U: 61.5 (DRAFTKINGS ONLY)

College Football DFS Tools

• DraftKings Lineup Optimizer
•  Matchups Page (Vegas odds, opponent averages, etc.)
• Advanced Lineups Page
• Stats
• Team Trends
• Targets
• Defense vs. Position
• Team Rankings

Matchup Info

WEATHER REPORT

SCST/UCF - 79 degrees, rain likely, possible thunderstorms

College Football DFS Week 1 Plays: Quarterback

Hendon Hooker, Tennesee (DK $8,900, FD $11,500) vs. Ball State

Hooker had a spectacular 2021 season, compelling 2,945 yards and 31 touchdowns. Tennessee's 7-6 record is deceiving, as their high-powered offense would have reigned supreme in a lesser conference. Ball State won the MAC Championship last season and have a lot of defensive starters returning, but their offense will have a hard time staying on the field with an untested John Paddock under center. The loss of Drew Plitt hurts, and while their defense might keep them in this game, they may not have enough muscle to rein in Hooker and his talented corps of wideouts. His elevated salary is well-warranted.

Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State (DK $7,800, FD $10,000) vs. Central Michigan

I'm not a big fan of the FanDuel salary, but Sanders is a very reasonable call in a game that might be a bit more competitive than the line might indicate. When Sanders last played, he was a dynamo with four touchdown passes and 371 yards in the Fiesta Bowl. With 10 of 11 starters returning, you can expect Sanders to once again direct an explosive offense for Mike Gundy, who grab his 150th win Thursday night. On the other end of the ball, Daniel Richardson and Lew Nichols are the centerpieces of an excellent offense as well, and their ability to put up points is one reason why I think the current line of +22.5 is a little too generous.  I expect a high-scoring matchup with a lot of snaps, which is great news for Sanders.

Aidan O'Connell, Purdue (DK $6,100, FD $8,800) vs. Penn State

Many pundits are high on the Nittany Lions this season, and some even think they can win the Big 10. They could head back to Happy Valley with an 0-1 record if they aren't careful because the Boilermakers certainly know how to pull off big upsets. I am fine with Sean Clifford in this game we could get lightning in a bottle from O'Connell, who is coming off a 3,712-yard, 27-touchdown season. He was also instrumental in the upset win over Tennesee in the Music City Bow, and you can bet the Boilermakers had this game circled on the calendar as their next potential upset. O'Connell lost playmaker David Bell to the NFL, but he inherited Tyrone Tracy and Charlie Jones via Iowa and the transfer portal, and a great tight end in Payne Durham. I plan on taking Purdue and the points in my upcoming betting article, and I will also count on O'Connell in DFS builds.

GPP Quarterback Play

Gavin Frakes, New Mexico State (DK $4,100, FD $5,000) @ Minnesota

When the Aggies benched Diego Pavia in favor of Frakes last weekend, the offense transformed and made the game competitive again. Based on his superlative work in relief, he should be a cinch to start. He faces a very stiff test in Minnesota, who ranked 34th overall in passing defense last season, but the Aggies will have to air it out. Frakes should still be productive as they play from behind.

College Football DFS Week 1 Plays: Running Back

Lew Nichols was previously mentioned, and while I think he is a good cash candidate, he is going to be heavily rostered and you'd be wise to go another direction in tournaments. 

Jabari Small, Tennessee (DK $7,500, FD $9,000) vs. Ball State

I slid past several excellent targets to land on Small, but as we all know, uniqueness corresponds with your win rate, especially in large-field tournaments. That's one reason why we are pivoting to a slightly less expensive, but elite target in a lopsided game. Small carried the rock into the end one nine times last season while rushing for almost 800 yards. Facing a similar week Bowling Green team in Week 1 of last year, he eclipsed the century mark and scored a touchdown.  Since not much has changed in the offensive scheme, Small should be in line for around 20 carries and will be a prime go-to in the red zone.

Nicholas Singleton, Penn State (DK $4,700, FD $6,500) @ Purdue

The running game was pretty weak for the Nittany Lions last season, and the team is really excited about what the highly-touted freshman can offer. I think he'll be in the field right away, either in the backfield and possibly in other positions. The coaching staff has said that the best thing to do is find a way to give him the ball and his speed and elusiveness will do the rest. He's definitely a surprise sleeper candidate at the position, and I suspect his roster percentage will be quite low.

Elijah Young, Missouri (DK $5,800, FD $5,800) vs. Lousiana Tech

A lot of the sharps will likely stay away from Young due to the arrival of Nathaniel Peat. I am not as certain as most that the Tigers will employ a committee approach at running back. They rode Tyler Badie for all he was worth, so they are accustomed to a three-down back approach. Still, coach Eli Drinkwitz was instrumental in getting Peat here, but as it turns out, he may not even be a factor this week, as he is dealing with a soft tissue injury. Even if he suits up, I doubt the team would risk further injury in a blowout - all the more reason to target Young.

College Football DFS Week 1 Plays: Wide Receiver

Cedric Tillman, Tennessee (DK $8,500, FD $9,800)vs. Ball State

Tillman is your unquestioned stack with Hooker if you go that route, and despite the mismatch, this connection should be at full speed in the first half.  Tillman had a ridiculously good 2021 campaign, snagging 64 passes for 1,081 yards and12 TDs, scoring in eight of the team's 11 games last season.

Parker Washington, Penn State (DK $6,500, FD $7,600) @ Purdue

Washington is a decent mid-range salary target who plays into the likely game script for the game. Sean Clifford will probably find himself in a few 3rd-and-long situations and may also be playing from behind at various points in the game. Although he's less of an end zone target and more of a possession guy for Clifford, those PPR points can add up, especially on DraftKings. Washington had a very consistent 2021, catching 64 passes for 820 yards.

Luther Burden, Missouri  (DK $6,700, FD $5,500) vs. Louisiana Tech

The hype surrounding Burden is real, and this top recruit should change the passing game immediately for the Tigers, and his presence will certainly help new QB Brady Cook as he settles into the starting role. Both blue-chip recruits have a lot to prove, and I have a feeling Burden's number is going to be called early and often as they get their sea legs in a real-time environment.

College Football Week 1 GPP Plays on DraftKings

DraftKings has a few exclusive games on their main slate, so we will briefly run through what to look for in these contests.

The headliner teams - Wake Forest, Arizona State, NIU and Fresno State - are all playing games with blowout potential.  I think the team to watch is ASU. Transfer Xazavian Valladay ($6,200) is poised to fill the hole left by Rachaad White and lead the Sun Devils' running game.  All eyes will also be on Emory Jones ($8,400), who won the QB battle after transferring in from Florida. Coach Herm Edwards will be testing out these new weapons and I believe they are both worthy candidates. Conversely, the featured team I am most skittish about is Wake Forest. Losing Sam Hartman for the year is huge, and only time will tell how well Wake can recover from the loss. If you wanted to get really unique, you could take a flier on Mitch Griffis ($8,800) and see what Wake can do against VMI, but  I personally won't touch Griffis until I see a game or two.

Fresno State has Jake Haener ($9,100) and a host of excellent wideouts. To say that the Bulldogs' run game is 'developing' would be an understatement, so they are going to get things done in the air with guys like Jalen Cropper ($8,300) and Josh Kelly ($6,800).

Finally, NIU is the team that might give you the most unique value.QB Rocky Lombardi ($8,100) is at a nice salary point and could definitely work as a SuperFlex candidate, The Huskies will also use Harrison Waylee ($6,000) early and often, and he's an absolute steal at that salary.