College Football DFS: Night Slate Week 12

Saturday's late slate is shaping up to be a fun affair with a lot of high-scoring targets to choose from.  As usual, the slates across both sites are not exact, and FanDuel is adding two extra games to the seven-game core. We will create separate paragraphs for those games, but our main focus will be the shared seven-game offering.

SLATE OVERVIEW

LSU (-21) @ Ole Miss O/U: 66

Cincinnati (-14) @ South Florida O/U: 47

Texas A&M (-11) vs. South Carolina O/U: 50.5

Arizona State (-2) @ Oregon State O/U: 57.5

Oklahoma (-10.5) @ Baylor O/U: 68.5

Appalachian State (-17) @ Georgia State O/U: 61.5

Utah (-21) vs. UCLA O/U: 52

Air Force (-11) @ Colorado State O/U: 64 (FanDuel Only)

Louisville (-3) @ NC State O/U: 53 (FanDuel Only)

GAME TO TARGET

Oklahoma (-10.5) @ Baylor

To be honest, you might be okay by just stacking this game and going on your merry way.  You've got ample options at all positions on both sides of the ball. Obviously, Jalen Hurts (DK $9,100, FD $12,000) is going to be the first guy off the board for many lineups, and thanks to a weaker-than-usual Oklahoma defense over the past couple of weeks, Charlie Brewer (DK $8,000,  FD $9,900) could very easily slide right into your Super Flex. Going deeper at running back, things aren't as stellar but Baylor's JaMycal Hasty (DK $6,000, FD $7,200) is the rusher you want in this game. Kennedy Brooks (DK $5,600, FD $7,300) is also a fine choice, and although there are more productive guys on the slate, you can't go wrong with either guy.  The guys at wideout are definitely core-building selections, and CeeDee Lamb (DK $7,200, FD $9,500) heads that esteemed list. With 44 caches for almost 1000 yards and 13 touchdowns, the kid is unstoppable. Baylor's also got a marquee guy in Denzel Mims (DK $6,600, FD $8,600), and he could come in handy if Baylor gets behind early. There are also some decent value shots to take in this game, with Oklahoma's 's Charleston Rambo (DK $5,300, FD $7,700) and Rhamondre Stevenson (DK $5,300, FD $5,900) as front-runners.

GAME TO FADE

Cincinnati (-14) @ South Florida

This game has clunker written all over it, and its meager O/U and wide spread aren't doing the game any favors. I don't like either quarterback tonight, and I think Michael Warren II (DK $6,800, FD $8,900) might be the only guy I'd actively consider here, although I think his FanDuel price is a little high.

With the above endorsements (in bold) in mind, let's keep moving.

QUARTERBACK

Joe Burrow, LSU (DK $8,600, FD $10,500) @ Mississippi

I think it's doable to fade Hurts AND Burrow, but you risk falling behind the pace in your cash lineups.  You might be afraid of a blowout here, but if you've watched the Ed Orgeron-led Tigers at all this year, you know that he likes keeping his starters on the field. Burrow's been involved in many blowouts this year, and his passing yards haven't sunk beneath 250 in any of them. He's also passed for at least two touchdown passes in every game, save one against Auburn. He just decided to run one in against them instead.

John Rhys Plumlee, Mississippi (DK $6,100, FD $8,700) vs. LSU

LSU ranks a surprising 7th in the SEC versus opposing quarterbacks.  A closer look reveals that they've given up 143 yards and three touchdowns to rushing QBs, and that's one of Plumlee's favorite things to do.  He's rushed for seven TD's and could add to that total on Saturday. He's a good enough passer, but it's his feet that will get you.

RUNNING BACK

Zack Moss, Utah (DK $7,400, FD $9,800) vs. UCLA

Aside from one bad game against USC, Moss has been deadly consistent, and he's earned a spot among the nation's best rushers.  In a lot of ways I think he's the most pro-ready back in the country, as the Utes have placed a massive portion of their offense on his shoulders for the second consecutive year. UCLA's recent surge is well-documented, but they're headed to an altitude and weather change, and they're facing a team that's hungry for a Rose Bowl appearance.  

Tra Barnett, Georgia State (DK $6,800, FD $7,900) vs. Appalachian State

The Panthers are all about the run, and Barnett's staggering numbers serve as evidence.  He's been pretty much matchup-proof all year, and he should have a fairly easy time against the Mountaineers' 114th-ranked rushing defense. With 1,118 yards and 10 TDs so far this year, it's just something you have to go with despite the team's underdog status.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU (DK $6,300, FD $9,200) @ Ole Miss

FanDuel seems to think that LSU's star running back will stick around for a while in a blowout, and I'm inclined to agree with them. Regardless of yardage, Edwards-Helaire has scored a touchdown in seven of the nine games he's played, so the odds are certainly in his favor to put up six in this game.

WIDE RECEIVER

As much as I'd like to go with elites in this spot, there are issues with every one of them.  I wanted to include Ja"Marr Chase, but his metrics suggest that he falls away in blowouts, and the money is too much to risk. So, we're going low at this position, with one exception

Isaiah Hodgins, Oregon State (DK $7,700, FD $9,600) vs. Arizona State

You have to consider Hodgins because there's literally nobody else on the team that catches the ball with any consistency.  They're likely playing against an untested quarterback so they might not have to do a lot offensively to have a chance, but when Jake Luton throws the ball, it's a pretty safe bet that Hodgins will be at the other end.  Look at the numbers.

Bryan Edwards, South Carolina (DK $6,300, FD $8,500) at Texas A&M

Edwards is a solid, possession-type guy who's always going to show up with something in the double-digits. He just catches a lot of passes.  He's failed to break double digits only twice, and I think it's easy to call those two occasions flukes. The Aggies are a tough defensive team, but I think the Gamecocks will need to air it out to stay competitive.

Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State (DK $5,700, FD $8,200) at Oregon State

Aiyuk's one of the most consistent receivers you'll find in the Pac-12, and there's always a chance you'll get a bonus TD or two with his flashy special teams appearances. True, it looks like the inexperienced Ethan Long will be under center for the Sun Devils, but Aiyuk will be a reliable security blanket for the newly-minted starter.  I think this game script will cause many to shy away from Aiyuk, but I'm betting on his ability to get open.

Josiah Deguara, Cincinnati (DK $5,500, FD $7,700) @ South Florida

He's not a guy I'll start with any confidence because I'm not a big fan of this game, but he's scored three touchdowns in the past two games and looks like the flavor of the month for QB Desmond Ridder currently.  If Ridder can stay turnover-free, I think there's a good chance we'll get some action from DeGuara's stat line.

ADDITIONAL FANDUEL MATCHUPS

Almost all of the teams  have some sort of issue at quarterback. In fact, the only one that's a 100% lock to start is Colorado State's Patrick O'Brien ($7,600). If you can wait on Louisville to see whether they'll go with Micale Cunningham or Evan Conley, that's probably the only other way to go at this position.

At running back, you immediately gravitate toward Air Force and their blistering rush attack, and lately it's been Fullback Timothy Jackson ($8,300) who's been drawing the most action. You can't really go wrong with Kadin Remsberg ($7,400) either. Javian Hawkins ($8,000) is your guy for Louisville, and yes, it's true.  I'm not touching NC State.

With all the QB uncertainty, it's hard to go with any receiver among these four teams, but since Colorado State has the most secure situation, I'll go with their superb wideout, Warren Jackson ($9,300), who's a little overpriced but wouldn't be a bad tournament play.