NCAA Tournament Preview: West Region

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WEST REGION PREVIEW

One word formed my first impression of the West Region upon its announcement: defense. My eyes slid past Gonzaga, which I assumed would be the one-seed in the region, and noted Michigan and Texas Tech. If St. Mary's was able to slow down the Zags and execute each play meticulously to win the WCC tournament championship, then the Wolverines and/or Red Raiders are going to be a problem for coach Mark Few's team. My glance also landed on the 5-12 matchup between Markus Howard of Marquette and Ja Morant of Murray State. That will be appointment viewing in the first round.

THE FAVORITES

No. 1 Gonzaga – The Zags had an historic run through the WCC in the regular season. They beat their conference foes by an average margin of 27.0 points on their way to an undefeated WCC campaign. And did I mention they beat Duke, which had its entire roster at its disposal? Their loss to the Gaels in the WCC final was one of the most shocking results of the season. Particularly, because the Bulldogs were held to 47 points. That game may be a blueprint to knock out the Zags, but it will need to be coupled with a terrible perimeter game from the Bulldog guards (2-of-17 in that final).

No. 2 Michigan – After beating Michigan State three times last season, the Spartans got their revenge. They were the only team to beat Michigan in Ann Arbor and gutted out a win in the Big Ten tournament final. Michigan survived an ankle injury to Charles Matthews that caused the guard to miss the last three games of the regular season. Ignas Brazdeikis moved into the Mo Wagner role and there are few teams that have the type of defensive integrity like the Wolverines.

No. 3 Texas Tech – One such team that brings defense is the Red Raiders. Texas Tech boasted the best defensive efficiency in the nation, per KenPom. They won their last nine regular season games before getting upset by West Virginia in the Big 12 tournament (which may have been a bigger upset than the WCC final). Jarrett Culver (18.5 ppg) gives the team scoring power. He scored at least 15 points in his last eight games and tagged Iowa State for 31 points in the regular season finale.

No. 4 Florida State – I am mildly miffed at the Seminoles because they denied me Virginia-Duke, Part III. The Seminoles knocked the Cavaliers out of the ACC tournament in a game in which UVA hit just 5-of-24 on three-pointers. The Seminoles have length at every position and reached another level in conference play when forward Phil Cofer returned from a foot injury. The Seminoles closed the regular season by winning 12 of their last 13 games with the lone loss coming at the Dean Dome.

CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 9 Syracuse – By now, we know the drill. Syracuse plugs along in the regular season and hovers around the NCAA Tournament bubble throughout. In the tournament, the team gets their offensive act together and opponents look like they have never seen a 2-3 zone before. The Orange made the Sweet 16 as an 11-seed last season and the Final Four in 2016 as a 10-seed. Syracuse had a win over Duke, but mostly fell to the best teams in the ACC. In the Big Dance, they won't have to meet any of those teams until at least the Sweet 16.

No. 10 Florida – Coach Mike White has built a team that grinds on defense and hopes to get timely offensive games from players such as KeVaughn Allen or Jalen Hudson. The Gators have plenty of size and will not be particularly impressed by Nevada in the first round. The Wolf Pack tend to be kind of loosey-goosey and tend to take bad shots. The Gators are the best team, per KenPom, that Nevada has played this season and could grind coach Eric Mussleman and his charges out of the tournament.

BIGGEST BUST

No. 1 Gonzaga – I really hate to be that guy. Perhaps this is just recency bias from having watched Gonzaga lose in the WCC final. Zach Norvell is likely not going to shoot 1-of-11 again on his way to two points. Yet, the Zags could face a variety of teams that play staunch defense, including Syracuse in the second round. Gonzaga was able to get past Syracuse-like Washington on Dec. 5, but it was by an unconvincing two points.

FIRST-ROUND UPSET

11. Arizona State over No. 6 Buffalo – While it seems longer ago, Bobby Hurley was the coach of Buffalo just four seasons ago. He guided the Bulls to the NCAA Tournament in 2014-15, then took off for the desert. If the Sun Devils are able to get past St. John's in the First Four, then Hurley will meet his old team which has become the MAC daddy. Buffalo has had trouble with high scoring guards and Luguentz Dort (16.1 PPG) could be problematic.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Ja Morant, guard, Murray State – It is not all that easy to get noticed when you play in the Ohio Valley Conference. By launching himself into crazy dunks and leading the nation with 10.0 assists, Morant has been delivered to the national scene. He led the Racers past Belmont with 36 points in the OVC final and added 24.6 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.7 steals to his passing acuity. His matchup against Markus Howard will be excellent. The Golden Eagles lost four of their last five games, so we could get more than one game of Morant and his Racers.

SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 8 Syracuse – I'm doing it! As someone who loves basketball outside the power conferences, I feel terrible about it, but I can imagine the Zags having real trouble with the Syracuse zone. Tyus Battle should be back after missing the ACC tournament with a back injury to give the Orange plenty of shooters.

No. 4 Florida State – The Seminoles gave Duke all they could handle in the ACC final and are arguably the fourth best team in the conference (after the parade of one-seeds). They should not have much problem with Vermont before taking on one All-American candidate guard or the other. Florida State will have too much size and talent for either Marquette or Murray State.

No. 3. Texas Tech – The Red Raider voyage to the Sweet 16 starts with Horizon League champion, Northern Kentucky, who have not seen the type of defense that Texas Tech employs. If Buffalo survives the 6-11 game, the second-round meeting with Texas Tech would be interesting. Since the Bulls won't (see above), the Red Raiders will crush Arizona State.

No. 2 Michigan – In the last five years, the Wolverines have only missed the Sweet 16 once. They advanced to the national championship games twice before losing to Louisville in 2013 and Villanova last season. The Wolverine defense is incredibly stout. They should take care of Montana in the first round before what could be a beautiful game (if you love defense) against Florida (or possibly Nevada).

FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 2 Michigan – As long as Michigan does not meet Michigan State (which wouldn't happen until the Final Four, but would be a great match up) or play on the road in the Big Ten, they should be fine. The Wolverines were undefeated in non-conference play, which included a blowout at Villanova and a win at home against North Carolina. A Sweet 16 contest against Texas Tech would be defensively beautiful (again!), but is certainly survivable for coach John Beilein and his team.