NCAA Tournament Preview: South Region

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South Region

The South could be the most unpredictable region given the combination of highly touted top seeds and dangerous underdogs.  No. 1 Houston has been a model program over the last few years, making the Sweet 16 in 2023, the Elite 8 in 2022, and the Final Four in 2021.  Senior Jamal Shead has been on all of those squads and will look to cap off a fantastic collegiate career with a National Championship.

Meanwhile, No. 2 Marquette is hoping to relive the glory days of yesteryear.  The Golden Eagles have not been to the Final Four since Dwyane Wade's magical run in 2003.  In fact, the last time Marquette even made the Sweet 16 was 2013.  The health of star point guard Tyler Kolek (oblique) will go a long way towards determining Marquette's fate during March Madness.

Familiar names litter the middle of this region, as vaunted programs in the form of Kentucky (No. 3) and Duke (No. 4) are going to be chic picks that upset the seeding balance at the top of the heap.  The Wildcats are among the highest scoring teams in the nation.  The Blue Devils failed to gain at least a 1, 2 or 3 seed for just the fourth time in the last 30 years.

Regarding the lower seeds, No. 9 Texas A&M actually beat Kentucky in the SEC Tournament.  No. 11 NC State was one of the stories of the last week, as the Wolfpack stole a bid by winning five games in five days to capture the ACC Tournament Championship.  Boise State only made the play-in game versus Colorado; the disrespect for the Mountain West was readily apparent despite the conference gaining six entries to the tournament, a staggeringly impressive number for a non-power conference.  The classic upset pick will be the 12-5 game; more on those squads and that matchup below.

Let's take a closer look at the players, coaches and matchups that will ultimately decide the fate of the South region.

THE FAVORITES

No. 1 Houston – As in the past, the Cougars are built on defense.  In their first year in the Big 12, Houston won the regular season crown, allowing just 57.0 points per tilt.  That's the top mark in the country.  The addition of LJ Cryer from Baylor has given the Cougars an added scoring element around the aforementioned Jamal Shead.

No. 2 Marquette – Marquette's biggest issue this season was being in the same conference as overall top seed Connecticut.  The Golden Eagles went 25-6 against all other opponents, including wins against Kansas, Texas, Illinois and Creighton, all comfortable tournament squads.  Kameron Jones led the Golden Eagles in scoring, but injuries to starting point guard Tyler Kolek and leading rebounder Oso Ighodaro cloud Marquette currently.

No. 3 Kentucky – The Wildcats can really fill it up; Kentucky has five players averaging double-figures in points, and Antonio Reeves, Robert Dillingham or Reed Sheppard can all catch fire on a given night.  Transfer Tre Mitchell has found a home after multiple stops; he gives Kentucky an intimidating, lengthy presence on the inside.

No. 4 Duke – The Blue Devils almost had a disappointing season by Duke standards, while also being partly marred by the court-storming incident which injured star big man Kyle Filipowski.  Thankfully, Filipowski is fine, and the Blue Devils still have a chance at yet another Final Four appearance, this time under second-year coach Jon Scheyer.  This particular Blue Devils squad is thin outside their starting five, though, so injuries and/or foul trouble could leave Duke open to an upset.

CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 11 NC State – The Wolfpack already wrote their Cinderella story, becoming just the second team ever to win five games in five days, win its conference tournament and punch a ticket to the Big Dance.  The Wolfpack have a dangerous inside-outside combination between nimble big man DJ Burns and senior scorer DJ Horne.  Casey Morsell battled through a thigh injury during the ACC Championship, but he should be good to go for the NCAA Tournament.  NC State is very experienced; the Wolfpack start four seniors and one junior, and this team made the Big Dance just a season ago.

No. 12 James Madison – The Dukes were ranked in the top 25 for some of this season, winning their first 14 games of the year.  They also won their final 13 games, punctuated by the Sun Belt Tournament Championship.  JMU finished with a stout 31-3 record, averaging over 84 points per clash.  Junior Terrence Edwards has been the catalyst for the offense, leading the team in scoring and dishing.  On the interior, senior and BC transfer T.J. Bickerstaff has been a dominant force, tallying 13.4 points and 8.5 rebounds per tilt.  Noah Freidel has been better in his second season after transferring from South Dakota State, including shooting over 37 percent from three-point range.  The Dukes can score with anyone and are no strangers to winning.

BIGGEST BUST

No. 5 Wisconsin – This Wisconsin squad is not quite as offensively-deprived as some of the other squads the Badgers have brought into March in recent years, though the Badgers still have difficulty sharing the ball and rebounding.  Wisconsin stunned Purdue in the semifinal of the Big Ten Tournament and otherwise played a rigorous schedule in one of the top conferences in the country.  Still, the Badgers have not made the Sweet 16 since 2017.

FIRST-ROUND UPSET

No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Wisconsin – Which brings us to the upset special for the South region. For the record, I almost don't consider these 12-5 trap games as upsets anymore.  Or the 11-6 games for that matter.  However, in terms of seeding, these contests are still classified as upsets.  The Dukes can score in bunches, will not be afraid of the big stage, and were an elite rebounding squad this season, something the Badgers struggled with immensely.  The Badgers need to get off to a fast start; if not, the Dukes may simply pull away early and not allow Wisconsin to recover.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Tyler Kolek, G, Marquette – Kolek has missed the last six games for the Golden Eagles due to an oblique injury.  Marquette made an impressive run to the Big East Tournament Final before ultimately succumbing to UConn, but the Golden Eagles will need their floor general if they are to advance deep into March.  Kolek averaged career-bests of 15.0 points, 4.7 rebounds and 7.6 assists per tilt this season.  Kolek's health will affect not only Marquette's chances to advance, but also impact the entire region if the Golden Eagles get bounced early.

SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 Houston – Houston should ease by Longwood before an intriguing Matchup with either Nebraska or Texas A&M; an in-state clash with the Aggies could be tricky, but Shead should be able to shut down Wade Taylor and send the Cougs to their fourth-straight Sweet 16.

No. 12 James Madison – There has to be at least one double-digit seed in the Sweet 16.  The Dukes outlast Wisconsin and then upset an overrated Duke squad to reach the Sweet 16.

No. 3 Kentucky – The Wildcats simply have too many ways to beat the opposition offensively.  The NCAA Tournament is usually more about shot-making and less about defense.  Kentucky should waltz its way through to this point.

No. 2 Marquette – Assuming Kolek is healthy, he is too poised to let the Golden Eagles lose to the No. 15 seed.  Marquette also catches a break in the second round, as No. 7 Florida lost its starting center Micah Handlogten to a fractured leg.  Boise State has the best chance to upset Marquette, but alas, not this time around.

FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 3 Kentucky – Antonio Reeves had a 30-point game this season.  Robert Dillingham scored 35 points in another contest.  Reed Sheppard poured in 32 points in still a different outing.  In the NCAA Tournament, each game stands on its own, and not every star player is going to have a monstrous performance every single time.  The multitude of players that can beat the opposition on a given night is what sets this Kentucky team apart.  Not surprisingly, Kentucky was the top-shooting team in the country in terms of three-point field goal percentage.  The three-point shot is the great equalizer for the underdogs in the Big Dance, but can also be a huge weapon for those bigger schools that can really light it up from long range.  Coach John Calipari will get the Wildcats to play enough defense to overcome Houston in the Elite 8.  The Wildcats have not been to the Sweet 16 since 2019, and the Final Four since 2015.  That's practically an eternity for this fanbase.  A return trip to the promised land is in the cards.