NCAA Tournament Preview: South Region

The South is littered with legitimate title contenders with North Carolina, Kentucky, and UCLA comprising the top three seeds. To call this region top-heavy would be a misnomer, however, as teams like Minnesota (No. 5 seed), Cincinnati (No.6), Wichita State (No.10), and Middle Tennessee (No. 12) all rank in the top 35, according to RPI. The opening round in the South figures to be competitive as any we've seen in recent years, with several higher-seeded teams on upset watch. Buckle up, because some of the most entertaining basketball of the entire tournament is going to be coming out of this region.

Let's take a more in-depth look at the players, coaches and matchups that could impact the outcome of the South region

THE FAVORITES

No. 1 North Carolina

Last year's national runners up have their sights set on another deep run this March thanks to coach Roy Williams and an experienced core. The Heels won the ACC's regular season title with a 14-4 record against conference foes, but were felled by Duke in the semifinals of the tournament. Offense is North Carolina's calling card as they rank fourth in the nation in KenPom's offensive efficiency at 122.1. Not only do the Heels feature stellar guard play from Joel Berry (14.8 ppg, 3.7 apg), but they can bully teams down low with the combination of Isaiah Hicks (5.7 rpg, 0.7 bpg) and Kennedy Meeks (9.1 rpg, 1.0 bpg). The biggest star on the roster is none other than small forward Justin Jackson, who took home ACC Player of the Year Honors on the strength of 18.1 points per game on 44.4 percent shooting.

No. 2 Kentucky

The Wildcats are constructed in a way that's become the norm since John Calipari came to Lexington in the sense that star freshmen headline a star-studded core. It took the Wildcats a while to gel and some of their warts were exposed against the toughest teams on their schedule, such as UCLA, Louisville, Kansas, and Florida. That said, Kentucky's blowout loss to the Gators in Gainesville looks to have been a bit of a turning point for the 'Cats, who have reeled off 11 straight wins since that fateful Saturday night. Freshmen Malik Monk and De'Aaron Fox make up one of the most talented backcourts in the nation. Monk took home SEC Player of the Year honors (Associated Press) by averaging 20.5 points per game on 45.8 percent shooting, while Fox continually matured throughout the year to become a premier playmaker at point guard. Part of what makes this group so dangerous is that Monk did not play particularly well late in the season, averaging 11.3 points on 32.6 percent shooting in his last four games, but the Cats still managed to win the SEC Tournament in rather comfortable fashion. In addition to the offensive firepower, the 'Cats also rank ninth in the nation in terms of defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. If Kentucky continues to play its suffocating brand of defense and finds its rhythm offensively, this is a team that could make a very deep run in The Big Dance.

No. 3 UCLA

The Bruins coming in as a 3 seed despite posting a 29-4 record was one of the more surprising reveals from Selection Sunday. Led by Naismith Award finalist and Pac-12 Freshman of the Year Lonzo Ball, the Bruins have a balanced and lethal offense that can beat any team in a variety of ways. Ball is the straw that stirs the drink behind UCLA's top-rated offense in terms of effective field goal percentage (59.5), averaging a Division 1-leading 7.7 assists per game. He has a bevy of options to dish it out to on the perimeter, including the floor-stretching T.J. Leaf and sharpshooter Bryce Alford, both of whom shoot well over 40 percent from three-point land. The Bruins have a number of impressive wins on their resume, including road victories at Kentucky and Arizona. Perimeter defense could become an issue should the Bruins run into a strong three-point shooting team later in the tournament, but this is a team that is too talented and well-coached to bow out early despite their relatively tough draw in a loaded region.

CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 12 Middle Tennessee

It may be cliche at this point, but 12 seeds have a strong history of pulling upsets in the tourney. The Blue Raiders certainly fit the bill as a 12 seed that any given 5 seed would dread facing in the Round of 64. Led by Conference USA Player of the Year JaCorey Williams (17.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and the sublimely named Giddy Potts (15.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg), Middle Tennessee has a strong inside-out attack that gives opposing defenses fits. Minnesota's size on the interior could be an issue (Williams vs. Jordan Murphy/ Amir Coffee will be a treat), but if the Blue Raiders can get the Gophers in foul trouble (which they are prone to do), this should be a very close game with loads of upset potential. Factor in the loss of Akeem Springs for the Gophers and this looks like the most likely upset of 12-5 matchups.

No. 10 Wichita State

It feels like we're past the point of referring to the Shockers as a Cinderella, but the committee slapping them with a 10 seed means that they technically fit that mold this year. The Shockers dominated MVC play -- as is tradition -- and are coming into the tournament riding a 15-game win streak and have lost just once since Dec. 17. That one blemish was a loss to a respectable Illinois State team on the road, but the Shockers exorcised those demons with two wins over the Redbirds, including a 20-point victory in the conference title game. Wichita State can shoot the lights out, ranking third in the nation in three-point percentage (40.7) thanks to Landry Shamet (45.4) and Conner Frankamp (44.6). The Shockers will be facing a well-coach Dayton team that could be a Cinderella in its own right, and the Flyers do have the kind of perimeter defense that can slow down their three-point attack, but this is still a Wichita State that is a legitimate threat to make a deep run.

BIGGEST BUST

No. 4 Butler

This was as tough of a section as any to write seeing how strong this region is from top to bottom. That said, among the higher seeded teams, Butler seems to be the shakiest of the bunch. Maybe I'm letting their loss to a beaten-up Xavier team in the Big East Tournament cloud my vision a bit too much. In fairness, this is a team that has racked up wins against Arizona, Cincinnati, Indiana, Villanova (2X), and Northwestern. Still, this is a Butler team has me skeptical despite plenty of evidence to the contrary. It wouldn't shock me if Butler made it to the second weekend, but I'm going to err on the side of the Big Dance's entropic nature here and say that they're due a loss in the second round.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Lonzo Ball, G, UCLA - There are plenty of players that fit the bill here, but Ball is a guy, like Fox and Monk, that you have to appreciate now because in a couple months he'll be standing on stage with Adam Silver at the draft. Ball is such a dynamic player that turned a listless 15-17 team from last year into a legitimate title contender as a freshman. He not only has the physical talent to make him a star, but his basketball I.Q makes those Jason Kidd comps seem merely lofty rather than patently ridiculous. Look for Ball to put on a show with his, shall we say, unique shooting stroke and his sixth sense-level passing acumen. *Wake Forest's John Collins gets an honorable mention here, but he and the Deacs will have to take down a tough K-State team in the play-in game to see the limelight.

SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 North Carolina

Even in a loaded region, the Heels have a rather favorable path to make it to the second weekend. They should coast past Texas Southern in the opener before facing either Arkansas or Seton Hall, both of whom are scrappy but beatable for a team of North Carolina's caliber. Arkansas� balanced offense could give North Carolina some headaches should it advance past the Pirates, but in all it's nothing that the Heels can't handle.

No. 12 Middle Tennessee

Putting a 12 seed in this spot is a bit of a risk, but as Jon Rothstein always says, this is March -- as in, stranger things have happened. As I noted above, this is as dangerous of a 12 seed as we've seen in recent years. The Blue Raiders� inside-out attack and strong defense is enough to take down not only the 5th-seeded Gophers, but also the 4th-seeded Butler Bulldogs. Butler is an experienced club that certainly has the ability to make it to the second weekend, but this Middle Tennessee is red hot riding a 10-game win streak and it has enough firepower to make some noise this weekend and beyond. Full disclosure: I may still be haunted by their impressive (and bracket busting) win over Michigan State from last year.

No. 10 Wichita State

If we already have one double-digit seed making the Sweet 16 in the South, why not double down? Again, this is an extremely under-seeded Shocker squad that boasts a top-10 ranking according to KenPom. Yes, Kentucky is more than fit to handle the challenge in the second round, but Gregg Marshall's team is well beyond the point of the "happy to be here� baggage that many so-called Mid-Major teams have. Wichita State is a deep bunch that can control the boards on both ends (39th in offensive rebounding, seventh in OReb allowed, per KenPom), which will without question make its game against the Wildcats one of the best of the weekend.

No. 3 UCLA

A rematch with Kentucky in the Sweet 16 would be a treat for every hoops fan out there, but I'm not backing off the idea of Wichita State meeting the Bruins in Memphis next week. Still, I think UCLA is a lock to get there. Steve Alford's team is simply too stacked and versatile to bow out in the first weekend. They can bully Kent State down low in the opening round, and Ball's rapport with Thomas Welsh, Bryce Alford, and Co. will make it impossible for the Golden Flashes to adequately defend the paint and the perimeter effectively. Their second round matchup, be it against Cincinnati or K-State/Wake Forest, will be markedly tougher, but none of those teams can quite match what the Bruins bring to the table.

FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 1 North Carolina

It's never a bad idea to bet on a Roy Williams coached team to make a deep run, and considering how close the Heels were last year (with most of that core still on the team), you can sense that they're dead set on getting back to the championship game. Not only are the Heels experienced and well-coached, but their talent level is unquestionably elite. Their regular season dominance over stiff ACC competition, including strong wins over Duke, Louisville, and Virginia, illustrates that they're battle tested and able to beat anyone. This is a team that, as of press time, I'm penciling in to win it all.