This article is part of our NCAA Tournament Preview series.
East Region
West Region
Midwest Region
South Region
Early for show, late for dough. That's an old adage that a good buddy likes to spit out when it comes to filling out his brackets, and it seems very appropriate for the East Region this year. Defending champion Villanova, the No. 1 overall seed, obviously brings chalk to this bracket, while a surging Duke squad that is loaded with lottery picks gives this region plenty of top-end potential. The rest? Well, it seems like a hodge podge of teams that all could knock each other out. Hence, those sage words of wisdom. Have fun picking some upsets early, but keep with chalk as the bracket narrows.
THE FAVORITES
No. 1 Villanova Wildcats
The Wildcats bring quite the resume into March. Not only are they the defending national champion and No. 1 overall seed, they're a team that lost only three times during the regular season, two of which were to the same opponent (Butler). Led by Big East player of the year, guard Josh Hart (18.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists), Nova plays eight players at least 21 minutes, six of whom played key roles in last year's run. You'll be hard pressed to find a team that combines this much talent and experience, and the Wildcats have a good shot to become the first repeat champion since Florida in 2006/2007.
No. 2 Duke Blue Devils
Virtually every national pundit's preseason top team, the Blue Devils look like they are becoming
East Region
West Region
Midwest Region
South Region
Early for show, late for dough. That's an old adage that a good buddy likes to spit out when it comes to filling out his brackets, and it seems very appropriate for the East Region this year. Defending champion Villanova, the No. 1 overall seed, obviously brings chalk to this bracket, while a surging Duke squad that is loaded with lottery picks gives this region plenty of top-end potential. The rest? Well, it seems like a hodge podge of teams that all could knock each other out. Hence, those sage words of wisdom. Have fun picking some upsets early, but keep with chalk as the bracket narrows.
THE FAVORITES
No. 1 Villanova Wildcats
The Wildcats bring quite the resume into March. Not only are they the defending national champion and No. 1 overall seed, they're a team that lost only three times during the regular season, two of which were to the same opponent (Butler). Led by Big East player of the year, guard Josh Hart (18.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists), Nova plays eight players at least 21 minutes, six of whom played key roles in last year's run. You'll be hard pressed to find a team that combines this much talent and experience, and the Wildcats have a good shot to become the first repeat champion since Florida in 2006/2007.
No. 2 Duke Blue Devils
Virtually every national pundit's preseason top team, the Blue Devils look like they are becoming that team everyone expected from the outset of the season. Their resume looks to be highly feast or famine, as they have the most top 25 RPI wins amongst top two seeds, but also dropped eight games, including a home loss to North Carolina State. For as much as everyone will remember the Blue Devils winning four games in four days to claim the ACC Tournament, they also dropped three of their final four regular season games. There's no questioning the top-end talent, led by Luke Kennard (20.1 points, 5.3 rebounds) and Jayson Tatum (16.9 points, 7.3 rebounds), but Duke can become jump shot dependent and suffer defensive lapses.
No. 3 Baylor Bears
Perhaps an opportunity to play non-conference foes will get the Bears back to their early season winning ways. Baylor opened the year with 15 straight wins, beating tournament teams VCU, Oregon, Louisville, Florida Gulf Coast, Xavier and Michigan State before Big 12 play began. But the Bears are just 5-6 in their last 11 games, which includes losses to Kansas State and Texas Tech. The Bears are a slow, grind it out, type of team, one that allows just 62.7 points per game (16th nationally). As such, just forward Johnathan Motley (17.3 ppg) and guard Manu Lecomte (12.4 ppg) average in double figures. They rank third nationally in offensive rebound percentage at 40.0 percent, clearly possessing the size and length to control games if shots aren't immediately falling.
No. 4 Florida Gators
The Gators limp into the Big Dance, having lost three of their last four, though two of those losses came at the hands of Vanderbilt, a team that beat them all three time they met. Florida will certainly benefit from playing their first, and a potential second, game in Orlando, just 112 miles from Gainesville. The Gators ranks fourth nationally in defensive efficiency per KenPom.com, while they turn over their opponents at a 21.1 clip, something that should play well against first round opponent East Tennessee State, which coughs it up 20.6 percent of the time. Seven players go at least 20 minutes for Florida, and two more see 12-plus minutes, but no Gator averages more than Ke'Vaughn Allen's 13.9 points. Florida shoots only 45.0 percent from the floor, and can suffer from lengthy scoring lapses.
Cinderella Watch
No. 6 SMU Mustangs
This comes down to two factors. 1) I feel like the 5-12, 4-13 matchups are both coin-flip battles, so pinning my hopes on a Cinderella when I don't feel confident in a first-round win is too risky for my reputation! 2) The Mustangs are underseeded, almost criminally so. This is a team that has lost once since the start of December (by two points) and is riding a 16-game winning streak. SMU ranks third nationally in scoring defense (59.9 ppg), have five players averaging 9.8 points or better, and rank 11th overall via KenPom.com. A second-round matchup with in-state foe Baylor should only add to the motivation to prove their doubters wrong.
BIGGEST BUST
No. 3 Baylor Bears
Losing of four of their last seven, including a first-round exit in the Big 12 tournament, isn't going to inspire confidence. That the Bears have lost in the first round in each of the last two years only adds to the worry. I don't think New Mexico State can make that a three-year trend for Baylor, but a likely second-round matchup with Southern Methodist seems likely to have Baylor again watching the tournament's second weekend. Both teams slow the pace tremendously, ranking 337 and 330 in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.com. And while you might think Baylor's size would give them an interior advantage, both teams rank in the top-10 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. This looks like a battle that isn't for the faint of heart, and I like SMU to play with a chip on its shoulder and send the Bears packing in the second round.
FIRST-ROUND UPSET
No. 13 East Tennessee State over No. 4 Florida – UNC Wilmington over Virginia is going to be a popular pick, and it absolutely could happen. Heck, UNCW could run the Cavaliers out of the gym if they can dictate the tempo, or the Wahoos go through what's become a typical scoring drought. But I'm a believer in the Cavaliers' ability to force their style onto the Seahawks, which will leave me looking my upset elsewhere. ETSU's propensity to turn the ball over is worrisome, but the team hits 38.3 percent from 3-point range and have a dynamic scorer in T.J. Cromer (19.1 points, 40.4 percent 3-point) that can shoot his team into Round 2.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Kyle Guy, guard, Virginia - The Cavaliers have allowed their freshman the freedom to gun it over the final few weeks of the season with the hope of finding an offensive spark. The problem here is that Guy's found success, and is now the focal point of defenses rather than someone who sneaks up on opponents. In his last five games, he's scored 19, 17, 6, 20 and zero points. UNCW's full-court pressure is going to lead to plenty of open shots for the Cavaliers, and they have little to no chance at advancing if Guy isn't connecting from the outside.
SWEET 16 PICKS
No. 1 Villanova Wildcats
A second-round matchup with Wisconsin could be a low-scoring, low-possession contest that pushes the Wildcats to the brink. And a potential hot shooting Virginia Tech could also pose problems. But Nova's experience and chemistry should prevent it from being upset in the first weekend.
No. 2 Duke Blue Devils
I'll be a little intrigued to see the crowd in Greenville. With North Carolina fans in the building, potentially paired with a local South Carolina contingent, Duke could be facing a hostile environment Sunday. At the end of the day, talent wins out, however, and Duke is not short on that. They're obviously, and finally, clicking as a team and the fact they slid all the way to the No. 7 overall seed after some talk of being a top four team provides this squad with additional motivation.
No. 5 Virginia Cavaliers
I truly think you could draw the four teams out of a hat from this pod and have an equal chance of getting the Sweet 16 pick right. But if I'm staying true to this column, the Cavaliers advance by default, beating ETSU in the second round to reach the next weekend. They've been a hard team to peg, losing four straight, and then winning four straight before getting dismantled by Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament. Fingers crossed the Cavaliers' veteran core can help put its freshmen scorers in position for success, and that the pack line defense can frustrate.
No. 6 SMU Mustangs
My only concern here is depth, as the Mustangs play five 29 minutes or more. But there should be plenty of motivation for SMU with an in state opponent likely in round two, followed by a potential showdown for Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye with his former team in the tournament's second week.
FINAL FOUR PICK
No. 2 Duke Blue Devils
You may be hard pressed to find someone as anti-Duke as I am in real life, so maybe I'm trying to just throw some type of reverse jinx. But I'm buying in to the top end talent. Playing in a pseudo home game at Madison Square Garden, give me the Blue Devils to knock off the defending champs and reach Phoenix.
