This article is part of our Final Four Preview series.
Texas tech Red Raiders, West Region No. 3 Seed
Backcourt: The strength of the Red Raiders is in the backcourt. Everything starts with Jarrett Culver, the 6-5 sophomore has blossomed into a go-to scorer for a team that doesn't need that many points. Culver led the team with 18.9 points and has averaged 22.4 points in the postseason. Like every Red Raider player, he is a strong defender as well. Culver is flanked by South Dakota transfer Matt Mooney and Davide Morretti, who has hit 92.3 percent of his free throws and 46.3 percent of his three-pointers. Mooney put up 17 points in the win over Gonzaga. Kyler Edwards and Brandone Francis come off the bench to play significant minutes and keep pressure on opposing ball handlers.
Frontcourt: Texas Tech does not get much offense out of its forwards and centers. The presence of players such as Tariq Owens and Norense Odiase are the last line of the packed-in defense. Owens, a happy transfer from St. John's, led the team with 2.4 blocks to go along with 8.9 points on 61.3 percent from the field and 5.8 rebounds. He swatted five shots and grabbed 17 boards in the wins over Michigan and Gonzaga. Odiase is a fifth-year senior who has only missed two shots in 10 attempts during the Big Dance. Sophomore Deshawn Corprew is an undersized forward who provides athleticism and depth.
X-Factor: Is it fair to call the team's calling card an x-factor? The Red Raiders play
Texas tech Red Raiders, West Region No. 3 Seed
Backcourt: The strength of the Red Raiders is in the backcourt. Everything starts with Jarrett Culver, the 6-5 sophomore has blossomed into a go-to scorer for a team that doesn't need that many points. Culver led the team with 18.9 points and has averaged 22.4 points in the postseason. Like every Red Raider player, he is a strong defender as well. Culver is flanked by South Dakota transfer Matt Mooney and Davide Morretti, who has hit 92.3 percent of his free throws and 46.3 percent of his three-pointers. Mooney put up 17 points in the win over Gonzaga. Kyler Edwards and Brandone Francis come off the bench to play significant minutes and keep pressure on opposing ball handlers.
Frontcourt: Texas Tech does not get much offense out of its forwards and centers. The presence of players such as Tariq Owens and Norense Odiase are the last line of the packed-in defense. Owens, a happy transfer from St. John's, led the team with 2.4 blocks to go along with 8.9 points on 61.3 percent from the field and 5.8 rebounds. He swatted five shots and grabbed 17 boards in the wins over Michigan and Gonzaga. Odiase is a fifth-year senior who has only missed two shots in 10 attempts during the Big Dance. Sophomore Deshawn Corprew is an undersized forward who provides athleticism and depth.
X-Factor: Is it fair to call the team's calling card an x-factor? The Red Raiders play incredible defense. They put incredible pressure on the ball and do not allow easy shots. In addition to being the most efficient defense, per KenPom, they are excellent at defending shots within and from beyond the arc. There are no weak links for opposing offenses to pick on. The defense does not rely on a gimmick, although they do sometimes show a zone early in the shot clock before moving back to man-to-man. Only Gonzaga (of the nation's top offense) scored more than 58 points in the NCAA tournament against the Red Raiders.
Who They Beat to Get Here:
Northern Kentucky, 72-57
Buffalo, 78-58
Michigan, 63-44
Gonzaga, 75-69
They'll Win If: they control the pace. The teams that beat the Red Raiders during the regular season were able to speed up the game and keep coach Chris Beard's team from setting up its incredible halfcourt defense. Texas Tech does not take a lot of bad shots which lead to transition opportunities for opponents. They have played two Big Ten teams previously and had little problem with Nebraska and Michigan (last week), so they have some success against the one of the other "Big" conferences.
PREDICTION: Is Michigan State able to speed their tempo and take the Red Raiders out of their game? The Spartans generally do not play quickly and may suffer the same fate as their arch rival, the Wolverines. Cassius Winston will have to play error-free ball and the junior guard had just one turnover in the win over Duke on Sunday. He averages 2.9 turnovers and the Spartans were below average in holding onto the ball. Aaron Henry and Xavier Tillman are underclassmen who could be exposed against the older Red Raiders. Texas Tech will gladly take advantage and advance to the National Finals.
--Perry Missner
Michigan State Spartans, East Region, No. 2 Seed
Backcourt: Quality over quantity. Michigan State plays two guards, and that's that. Cassius Winston is the alpha, averaging 18.8 points, 7.5 assists and 3.1 rebounds -- numbers that have maintained through four games during the dance, with Winston posting 19.0 points, 7.8 assists, 2.0 rebounds and 1.5 steals across 37.5 minutes. He's joined by Matt McQuaid in the starting lineup, a streaky shooter that hasn't topped 10 points in his last three outings. That said, he's played 39 minutes in three of his last five. Neither Winston nor McQuaid come off of the floor unless they have to. Winston's ability to score or facilitate when his team is in need is second to none in the nation, and he single-handedly gives the Spartans a chance every time out. Ranking fifth in offensive efficiency, Michigan State, largely on Winston's back, ranks first nationally with an obscene 67.1 percent assist to field goals made.
Frontcourt: Quantity and quality. The Spartans have trimmed their rotation some in the tournament, but still boast four quality bodies up front. 6-foot-6, 218-pound freshman Aaron Henry is the least productive but provides capable outside shooting (36.8 percent). 6-foot-7, 235-pound senior Kenny Goins and 6-foot-8, 260-pound sophomore Xavier Tilliman provide the beef on the interior. Goins isn't afraid to step out on the perimeter while Tillman is an asset on the offensive glass. Both are nightly double-double threats. 6-foot-9, 245 pound Nick Ward provides depth behind all three, and how many effective minutes he can play could go along way towards MSU cutting down nets.
X-Factor: Nick Ward. Ward hasn't been himself in seven games since returning from hand surgery that cost him five February games, averaging just 5.9 points and 4.1 boards across 13.1 minutes, shooting 43.2 percent. Prior to injury, he averaged 15.1 points and 6.7 rebounds across 26 games, shooting 60.4 percent in 23.1 minutes. He's not going to regain that form with his hand now dealing with a bruise. But with another week to heal, if he can regain that efficiency over his limited run, he gives the Spartans a third option to bang with an undersized Red Raider frontcourt. A trio of Goins, Tillman and Ward banging the glass for easy second-chance points can help break down Texas Tech's second-ranked defense.
Who They Beat to Get Here:
Bradley 76-65
Minnesota 70-50
LSU 80-63
Duke 68-67
They'll Win If: They win the 3-point line. We can look at Auburn's run to Minnesota as proof to how vital the 3-point shot has become in college basketball. Michigan State shot 40 percent or better in blowout wins against Minnesota and LSU. In its first-round scare against Bradley, it was the Braves that kept it close by hitting 42.9 percent against 26.3 for MSU, while Duke enjoyed a slight 33.3 – 31.6 percent advantage. The Spartans shoot it at a 38 percent clip overall, 24th nationally, while Texas Tech defense at the ninth best rate, allowing just 29.3 percent. With points likely to be at a premium, Michigan State can't lose on the perimeter.
Prediction: I was on Michigan State to advance over Duke, so that there here isn't great surprise to me. And given the matchup, I'm inclined to keep rolling with them. I think Winston and Culver will cancel each other out, and the Spartans size advantage is too much to overcome. I do worry that Texas Tech's smaller lineup can spread out the Spartans defense. This will be low scoring, and tight, but Michigan State finds a way to survive and advance to Monday. Michigan State 65-63.
