This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
What a ridiculously huge, enjoyable and challenging Saturday DraftKings has in store for us Saturday. Three slates, 32 total games, 64 teams. That's 320 starters of which I get to feature 18, just 5.6 percent. There will be some overlooks and some overreaches, but hopefully lots of hits too. Let's dive in!
Main Slate
We've got 11 teams featured in the morning. Yes, morning, as the North Carolina-Notre Dame gets us going at 11:30 a.m. EST. Seven games have totals north of 140 points, with St. John's-Providence narrowly beating out Kentucky-Alabama for the top number. There's a forgettable 126.5-point total in Nebraska-Minnesota, but don't be afraid to be different given the depth; that will be a theme all day. Mid-priced stars in these lower-scoring games are going to be ignored. Use them.
Top Tier
Colin Castleton, F, Florida ($8,700)
Castleton is the first name you'll read, but the last to get in here as I jumped around to complete this section. It became obvious I needed another forward, and I expect Castleton to be largely ignored when surrounded by bigger names with likely higher upside. But he's a rock-solid anchor with all but three games north of 30 DKP. Georgia is severely undersized outside of Braelen Bridges, which should allow Castleton to dominate on the glass, creating a stable floor that could go through the roof if the Gators run their offense through him.
Liam Robbins, F, Vanderbilt ($7,500)
Robbins' minutes, or lack of consistent run, worry me, and he hasn't started the across Vandy's last three games. But he also put up 31.3 DKP in just 12 minutes against SE Louisiana and is coming off of a 50.8 DKP outing against South Carolina. He's clearly super efficient, and can provide big scoring, rebounding and block numbers. He should get a boost against Missouri, who rank 36th in tempo and just 155th defensively, per KenPom. And low usage seems assured as well.
Middle Tier
Devin Carter, G, Providence ($7,000)
As noted in the intro, this game has the highest total on the slate, and Providence is favored, so we likely need at least one piece. I'm going to pass on Bryce Hopkins ($9,000) at his price, and Ed Croswell ($7,600) will likely battle with Joel Soriano ($9,500) on the interior, which leads me towards Carter. His 22.1 percent usage rate isn't elite, but it's second amongst the Friars, and he's also second in scoring. He averages a nice 2.1 steals and 4.3 assists while seeing nearly 30 minutes. St. John's will do their part too, ranking fifth in tempo, having allowed 346 points (86.5 ppg) across their last four.
Sahvir Wheeler, G, Kentucky ($6,400)
Wheeler is coming off of a 32.5 DKP outing against LSU, and his price didn't budge, which alone creates appeal. He's played 38, 39 and 37 minutes across the Wildcats last three games, and has at least eight assists in all of those. His scoring remains inconsistent, but that should get a boost while the dimes remain consistent thanks to Alabama's second-ranked tempo forcing the issue. 25.6 DKP is all we need for 4x, and if he doesn't sail by that number, I'll be surprised.
Value Tier
Miles Kelly, G, Georgia Tech ($5,900)
Kelly isn't much more than a scorer, so there's limited upside, and I usually don't love players that need 12-17 shots to return 4x. But Kelly boasts a team-high 24.6 usage rate, having taken double-digit shots in six of the Jackets' last eight with nine being the low. He's coming off of a second-straight 20-point outing, and this game has a solid 144.5-point total with a narrow 1.5-point spread. As such, we can expect Kelly to be heavily involved once again. He needs just 23.6 DKP for a 4x return, something he's done in seven of nine.
Seth Trimble, G, North Carolina ($3,300)
I'm an admitted UNC homer, so forgive me here, but Trimble has gone for 17.0 DKP or better in two of the Heels' last five. The problem, however, is his 2.5 total points in the other three outings. Completely ignore this suggestion if Pete Nance is dressed, but after leaving early Wednesday and not returning to the bench, I find it unlikely he'll play through a back issue. UNC's rotation is impossible to predict outside of their core four, but there's minimal risk in Trimble at this price. The Heels went small against Wake Forest, and without Nance, I'd expect that again. If he can get the minutes and work towards 15 DKP, he's opened up a world of options for your lineup.
Afternoon Slate
We're tipping early here too, with 2:00 p.m. EST being the start for the second slate. 10 games are included on this docket, six of which have totals north of 140 points, with the other four barely getting above 130, so there are going to be lineups that will be very popular. Marquette and Xavier are amongst those in the high-scoring category, and they both make things challenging with four starters priced at $7,000 or greater. Elite options, but which one(s) shine Saturday?
Top Tier
Azuolas Tubelis, F, Arizona ($9,400)
I'm normally not a pay up guy, but I always find frontcourt options less stable, and this looks like an easy set it and forget it spot. Tubelis has a massive 29.3 percent usage rate and has more games north of 47 DKP (four, a 5x return) than he does under 28.2 DKP (three, a 3x return). The Cougars are undersized up front, so this should be another smash spot. Clemson's Hunter Tyson ($8,700) is an interesting pivot.
Kameron Jones, G, Marquette ($7,700)
As noted above, we want Marquette shares, but it's impossible to feel confident in picking the right piece. This is the rare spot where I'll take the volume scorer. Jones has a solid 24.3 percent usage rate, averages a team-high 17.3 points and takes seven 3-pointers nightly. Georgetown is woeful defensively, which includes ranking 300th nationally in defending the three, allowing 36.4 percent of their opponents' shots to fall. Jones has only one 30+ DKP outing in his last five; he's due, and he'll get there with points, steals and a handful of other countable stats.
Middle Tier
Cam Whitmore, F, Villanova ($6,700)
I'm a sucker for upside freshmen. I passed on Dariq Whitehead ($4,900) in the main slate, but I'll bite here. Whitmore has moved into the starting lineup over the last two games, and while the results have been mixed, it's still a step forward. He's got a terrific 29.4 percent usage rate, has rebounded consistently all year and gives us a nice upside play in a game with a 148-point total and 1.5-point spread.
Kobe Bufkin, G, Michigan ($6,500)
Bufkin seems to present as just a safe, stable and boring option. He needs 26.0 DKP to return 4x, something he's done in five of the last six. Further, he's had a 21.25 DKP floor across the Wolverines' last 10. There's nothing flashy here, and minimal ceiling, but you can feel confident in a known commodity and take risks elsewhere.
Value Tier
Armaan Franklin, G, Virginia ($5,500)
Franklin is hitting 41.0 percent from 3-point range, taking a team-high 61 long shots to date. That alone should merit consideration against Syracuse's 2-3 zone, but his current form pushes me over the edge. He's averaging 15.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.3 steals across the Cavaliers last three, a cool 29.4 DKP nightly. A repeat performance sets up a 5.3x return. Yes please.
Jonas Aidoo, F, Tennessee ($4,600)
Aidoo is quietly becoming a nice performer, averaging 6.7 points, 9.0 rebounds and 1.7 blocks across his last three. The minutes are inconsistent, but the upside is clear at this price. This game isn't projected to be overly competitive, so we should be able to bank on 20+ minutes against an undersized South Carolina team. Boards and blocks are the path, which aren't a concern with the two teams' slow paces.
Evening Slate
10 more games come our way on the evening slate, with a relatively early 6:00 p.m. EST tip. There are two west coast games that give us some outliers as it relates to totals, as both UNLV-New Mexico and Gonzaga-Santa Clara sit in the 150s, but only three of the other eight games go north of 140.
Top Tier
Jalen Wilson, F, Kansas ($8,700)
If nothing else, Wilson is a bargain off of his season-high $10,300 price point. He was there for a reason, and with four other forwards priced higher, he should have clear appeal. Wilson isn't rebounding at the level we want, with just one game in his last four with eight boards, but the scoring creates a very stable floor thanks to a 30.1 percent usage rate. Wilson averaged 7.4 boards a year ago and is up to 8.4 this season but has only 24 in his last four games. It's time for a rebound, figuratively and literally.
Keyonte George, G, Baylor ($7,700)
I loathe the term "range of outcomes," but that's exactly what we have here. George has a mammoth 32.3 percent usage rate. He plays 28.7 minutes nightly but hits only 38.4 percent from the floor. His recent game logs show a 9.0 DKP floor and a 44.3 DKP ceiling. His opponent in Kansas State is hot, having only lost once while dropping 116 last time out against Texas. As such, I like this to turn into a shootout a little more than the oddsmakers suggest, creating volume scoring for George.
Middle Tier
Morris Udeze, F, New Mexico ($6,500)
It's difficult to stack a slate as big as any of these Saturday, but I'm kind of infatuated with this matchup and wouldn't hate a lineup with three or four pieces across these two teams. But as a one-off, Udeze is priced at a great spot for upside. He's second on the team with a 24.5 percent usage rate and leads the Lobos with 8.8 rebounds nightly. He's had three double-doubles to date, and only foul trouble can keep him from a 4x return in an up-and-down game.
Rasir Bolton, G, Gonzaga ($6,100)
Gonzaga has the highest implied total across this late slate, and Bolton is coming off of his best game of the season. He's scored at least 14 points in three straight, creating a decent floor, and he needs just 24.4 DKP for a 4x return. There's no arguing the inconsistent game logs, but Bolton is trending positively and should benefit moving forward from familiar opponents. He went for 26 and 27.5 DKP against Santa Clara last year, which is more than sufficient Saturday.
Value Tier
Lars Stefanovic, G, Utah ($5,800)
The bottom tier of this slate is a bunch of yuck, so I'm advising building a balanced lineup of mid-tier options. If not possible, perhaps Stefanovic merits a look. He doesn't start, but he does garner a 22.6 percent usage rate. He's scored in double-digits in three straight and seven of nine, failing to provide 20 DKP just twice in that span. It's not ideal, but you can do worse.
Darius Maddox, G, Virginia Tech ($5,100)
Maddox has hoisted nine or more shots in six of the Hokies' last seven games, playing at least 32 minutes in all but one of those. Yes, he's a volume scorer only, but those heavy minutes lead to a handful of peripheral numbers. North Carolina State is coming off of a huge blowout of Duke and seem primed for a letdown. Maddox has yet to show us a single-digit fantasy point showing, so even an off night won't sink lineups.
