College Hoops Barometer: Risers & Fallers

While the blue bloods almost always end up having the last laugh come tourney time, the Cinderella stories sometimes make for better theater.  The underdog even becomes the favorite occasionally.  We certainly have seen that happen with Gonzaga, a perennial title contender that started out as an upset darling.  On a much smaller scale, St. Bonaventure has perhaps a similar story.  The Bonnies have a chance to make some noise this season, and while they are not a household name, they are by no means coming out of nowhere.  The Bonnies won the regular season and conference tournament in the Atlantic-10 last season and return all five starters from that squad.  All of those players are seniors.  They find themselves ranked in the top-25 and for those in the know, this is a dangerous squad under coach Mark Schmidt.  Meanwhile, St. Bonaventure has not been to the Final Four since 1970 with Bob Lanier and has been to the NCAA Tournament just four times since the Year 2000.  Is coach Mark Schmidt building an empire in Olean, New York, or will this simply be one magical season for the Bonnies before a return back to anonymity?  The story will be an intriguing one to follow.

Let's take a look at some of the very early returns in this edition of the College Hoops Barometer.

UPGRADE

 Oscar Tshiebwe, F, Kentucky – Tshiebwe has played like a man possessed through the first three games of the season for the Wildcats.  He has notched double-doubles in each of those contests, but the performances were much more impressive than that.  He ripped down 20 boards apiece in Kentucky's first two games of the contest, then "only" grabbed 16 in Tuesday's rout of Mount St. Mary's.  He is shooting a blistering 61.5 percent from the field while also swatting 2.7 shots per contest.  Coach John Calipari appears ready to give Tshiebwe all the minutes he can handle, and the West Virginia transfer is responding with a tremendous start to the campaign.

 Alondes Williams, G, Wake Forest – Williams is a graduate transfer from Oklahoma who played more of a complementary role with the Sooners but looks to be the focal point of the Demon Deacons offense early on this season.  Williams is currently tied for second in the nation in scoring, averaging 27.0 points per contest.  He has been more than just a one-trick pony, though, as Williams is also averaging 5.5 rebounds and 3.5 dimes through the first two games of the year.  He played all 40 minutes against Western Carolina last Friday, so the playing time should continue to be plentiful for Williams, who appears to be making the most of his opportunity.

 Darryl Morsell, G, Marquette – The Maryland graduate transfer has been dynamite for the Golden Eagles through three outings.  Perhaps most surprising has been his scoring jump.  In four seasons with the Terps, Morsell averaged between eight and nine points per contest.  Through three tilts with Marquette, Morsell is managing an outstanding 22.7 points per contest.  He is shooting an absurd 75 percent from three-point land over that span.  While obviously there will be some regression eventually, Morsell's work on his outside shot is clearly paying dividends thus far.  He was a mediocre outside shooter at best during his time at Maryland.  Marquette is 3-0 to begin the season, including a thrilling win over a ranked Illinois squad, and Morsell is a chief reason for the early success.

 Zach Edey, C, Purdue – The Boilermakers seem to churn out these gigantic skilled centers, and the sophomore Edey leads the nation in PER.  He has two double-doubles in three contests, while narrowly missing one in the season opener.  Edey is putting out huge stat lines in less than 20 minutes played per contest.  It will be interesting to see if he can sustain such a high level of production once the competition stiffens, but for now the opposition has little answer for the 7-4 center.

CHECK STATUS 

 Alex Barcello, G, BYU – Barcello has been white-hot to begin the 2021-2022 campaign.  The 6-2 guard is in his second season with Brigham Young after transferring from Arizona, and he is shooting a scorching 74.1 percent from the floor through the first three contests of the year.  That includes 61.5 percent from the three-point line.  That does not include the fact that he has yet to miss a foul shot (18-for-18).  Barcello collected 25 points Tuesday en route to a massive 81-49 romp over a ranked Oregon squad.  The Cougs also beat San Diego State earlier this season and could provide an interesting test for Gonzaga during WCC Conference Play.  BYU is deep, but Barcello is the catalyst.

 Ochai Agbaji, G, Kansas – Agbaji has taken his scoring to another level to begin his senior campaign.  Agbaji was no slouch as a junior, averaging 14.1 points per tilt.  However, he poured in 29 points in the season opener against Michigan State, then subsequently scored 25 points in a blowout win over lowly Tarleton.  The question for Agbaji in terms of whether he can be a truly elite option will be his contributions in other categories.  He has just two assists in two games thus far for the Jayhawks, and he is an average rebounder at best.  He can provide some steals, but his true value lies in his ability to out the ball in the hoop.  That is certainly valuable, though he may not stuff the entire stat sheet like some other star players this season.

 Jalen Duren, C, Memphis – Duren's standout production in fairly limited minutes has been particularly striking.  The chiseled freshman collected a double-double in just 18 minutes against North Carolina Central in the second game of the season.  Duren followed up that performance with 13 points, eight rebounds and six blocks in just 21 minutes played.  Duren has not even been getting into foul trouble; the outcomes of these games were never really in doubt.  Duren will likely still be a man among boys even when Atlantic-10 conference play begins.  The only question is how much coach Penny Hardaway will hold him back, or instead unleash him on unsuspecting opponents.

DOWNGRADE

 Trey McGowens, G, Nebraska – McGowans suffered a broken foot in Nebraska's last game against Creighton and will be sidelined for an undetermined amount of time.  McGowans started all 27 games for the Cornhuskers last year, averaging 10.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.4 steals per tilt.  He had been struggling with his shot a tad to begin the season prior to getting injured, though the sample size was obviously small.  Regardless, though, McGowans is unlikely to suit up until the calendar turns to 2022, which will negatively impact a Nebraska squad already reeling from an opening-night loss to the Western Illinois Leathernecks.  Alonzo Verge, Kobe Webster and Trey's younger brother Bryce McGowens will be tasked with righting the ship.

 Benny Williams, F, Syracuse – The top recruit in Syracuse's 2021 class, Williams has not had much of an impact through the first two games of the season for the Orange.  He has barely played 20 minutes per contest, and even failed to score in the second game of the season, a 75-60 triumph over Drexel.  Williams is an elite athlete with length, a high basketball IQ and a versatile skill set.  Therefore, his usage has been a bit curious to begin the season.  Perhaps it is best not to read too much into his playing time early on this year, though, as he adjusts to the collegiate game as well as the vaunted 2-3 Syracuse zone.  The presence of transfers Cole Swider from Villanova and Jimmy Boeheim from Cornell have also complicated the situation.  Williams has huge upside, but it is too early to tell what his role will be on this squad.

Caleb Houstan, F, Michigan – Speaking of freshmen, Houstan was the No. 3 overall recruit for the 2022 class but reclassified and instead finds himself starting for the Wolverines.  Houstan is just 18 years of age and has some big shoes to fill following the departure of lottery pick Franz Wagner.  Perhaps unsurprisingly, Houstan has struggled a tad to begin his first collegiate campaign.  Despite playing 39 minutes Tuesday against Seton Hall, he collected just four points, two rebounds and three assists in the 67-65 loss to the Pirates.  Houstan has some room to fill out and mature into his 6-8 frame, something he will likely need to rebound at an elite level.  He is likely simply trying to find his footing with standout center Hunter Dickinson's demanding presence on the interior, along with reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year DeVante' Jones transferring in from Coastal Carolina, and Eli Brooks returning for a fifth season in Ann Arbor.  Houstan remains a player to watch on an exceptional Michigan squad, but he may not have consistent production on a nightly basis.