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ADP Trends: Top Risers in Standard Leagues

With each week that passes, the ADP data on Mock Draft Central gets more and more plentiful, giving us a much better idea of which round we should draft particular players. We're still not in an ideal place as you can see by some of the enormous fluctuations on the ADP Trend Report, but we're in a much better spot now than we were a month ago and we'll be in an even better place in two weeks when more and more fantasy players realize that mock drafts are still one of the best tools to use when trying to determine who you may want and when you may want them.

Today we're going to look at some of the biggest risers over the last two weeks. Not only do we have more draft data, but with camps opening and practices underway, we also have more information regarding specific players and potential job battles to watch. A dramatic swing up the rankings isn't necessarily indicating the right place to take a particular player, but it does give you a better idea of public perception. From there, we'll see if the masses are right or wrong.

Top 10 Risers

PlayerPosTeamADPChange1 Wk AgoChange2 Wks AgoTrend
Cam NewtonQBCAR10.41-11.90|PERCENT|9.17292.60|PERCENT|36245.80|PERCENT|
Andrew LuckQBIND29.19-23.10|PERCENT|22.44199.20|PERCENT|67.13130.00|PERCENT|
C.J. SpillerRBBUF3.5-6.30|PERCENT|3.28129.60|PERCENT|7.53115.10|PERCENT|
Ahmad BradshawRBIND58.164.40|PERCENT|60.72105.00|PERCENT|124.47114.00|PERCENT|
Vernon DavisTESF46.283.20|PERCENT|47.7895.10|PERCENT|93.2101.40|PERCENT|
Brian HartlineWRMIA104.785.80|PERCENT|110.8981.40|PERCENT|201.292.00|PERCENT|
Torrey SmithWRBAL39.692.50|PERCENT|40.6774.40|PERCENT|70.9378.70|PERCENT|
Darrius Heyward-BeyWRIND94.472.10|PERCENT|96.567.70|PERCENT|161.8771.30|PERCENT|
Antonio GatesTESD86.783.30|PERCENT|89.6763.30|PERCENT|146.468.70|PERCENT|
Demaryius ThomasWRDEN17.092.40|PERCENT|17.562.70|PERCENT|28.4766.60|PERCENT|
Jared CookTESTL84.164.50|PERCENT|87.9457.50|PERCENT|138.5364.60|PERCENT|

In truth, I'm stunned that Cam Newton has an ADP of 10.41. Stunned. And if you're asking me, even his ADP of 36 from two weeks ago is still too high. That's third round in a 12-team league. You have to be pretty jazzed up to be a Newton owner to take him with that early of a pick and even if you're that high on him, surely you can find him later in your draft than with a 10th or 11th overall pick, no? This will be one to monitor, because if Newton's ADP stays this high through the end of August, then recommending drafting him is going to be a near impossibility for me. I don't care how thin the running back and tight end positions are, think fifth round for QBs. Late fourth at the earliest.

And yes, the same goes for Andrew Luck and his jump from an ADP of 67.13 to one this week of 29.19. Do people really not know how deep the position is?

While the trend change forC.J. Spiller looks big, we're just talking about a mere four picks in the grand scheme of things. It's really just a matter of preference for starting running backs. Personally, I'm not high enough on Spiller to take him third in a standard league draft, but would certainly consider him at seven or eight, depending on who else is out there. He probably won't lose much in touches to Fred Jackson, but we've all seen what kind of disappointment Kevin Kolb can be and EJ Manuel is still a little green for me to trust to run a strong enough passing game that defenses won't key in on the run more.

Ahmad Bradshawcontinues to rise as more people expect him to be the new number one back in Indianapolis. What I find interesting here is that few people seem concerned with his injury history or the presence of Vic Ballard. I'm sure Ballard will be more prevalent on third downs, but assuming that Bradshaw's ankle or foot or whatever can stay healthy running between the tackles regularly seems risky and an ADP of 58.16 tends to indicate being drafted as an RB2.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: assuming that Vernon Davis is suddenly going to see a massive increase in targets now that Michael Crabtree is hurt might not be the best way to think.Anquan Boldin is the new number one and the team is doing a major search for a solid number two who can be more of a deep threat. That leaves Davis in the same position he was in last year and if defenses do the same to him this year and offensive coordinator Greg Roman doesn't make the necessary adjustments, then we could be looking at the same Davis we saw in 2012. What? You didn't see him after Week 4? Yeah, that's about right. The ADP increase to 46.28 seems awfully high right now.

The 92-percent increase that Brian Hartlinehas seen over these past two weeks seems to put him in a relatively good spot to draft. He's more of a beast in PPR leagues, but with a year working with Ryan Tannehill under his belt already, he could be in for an increase in targets this season. Sure, Mike Wallace and even Dustin Keller should have an impact on that as well, but when you prove you've got good hands and you gain the trust of your quarterback, it's very difficult to come between the two. If he goes in the eighth or ninth round in a standard league, then that's not so bad. Later obviously makes him more of a bargain, but anything earlier that that and you're probably reaching a little too far.

Watching Torrey Smith during the preseason should tell you a little more about where he should be drafted this year. He was more of the complementary deep threat to Boldin's possession work last year in Baltimore, but with Boldin now gone and Jacoby Jones taking over, will Smith start seeing tighter coverage? A jump of just over 30 picks to an ADP of 39.69 seems like a pretty big increase and one I'm just not on-board with just yet. Early fourth round? Maybe, but I might consider passing over him at that point. With guys like Victor Cruz, Marques Colston and Danny Amendola on the board still, I would lean towards Smith at all.

We haven't seen much movement for Darrius Heyward-Bey in the past week, but the overall 71.3-percent increase makes me feel like I'm missing something with him. I don't see him supplanting Reggie Wayne as Luck's primary target and T.Y. Hilton has a sound rapport as the deep threat. Maybe the Colts use a three or four-receiver formation more and Bey sees a little more time on the field, but it's not like he's done much to impress during his NFL tenure. Some people have him going before Hartline in drafts and that is definitely not a choice I would make.

Antonio Gates made a huge jump from two weeks ago, and while that move is, in my opinion, a panic move for those who fear the losses of many high-ranked tight ends, it might not be so bad now with word breaking that Danario Alexander has torn his ACL in practice. The Chargers still have Malcom Floyd and Vincent Brown in-house, but  Gates could very well see some additional targets as he and Philip Rivers already have a great on-field relationship.

The increase in ADP for Demaryius Thomas is definitely something I can get on-board with. Sure, the Broncos have added Wes Welker, but he and Eric Decker can fight for possession targets while Thomas continues to be strong over the middle and deep into the defensive secondary. Taking him with the 17th pick is something I would definitely consider, provided that I used my first pick on a stud running back.

And finally, we've got tight end Jared Cook climbing from 138.53 all the way to 84.16 over a two week span. Again, this looks like too much concern over how thin the position seems to look, but perhaps people think a better pass-catching tight end is what the Rams offense has needed all this time. For me, with the addition of Tavon Austin and the increased roles for Brian Quick andChris Givens, I'm not so sure Cook will be any better than someone like Rob Housler of the Cardinals.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at [email protected].