If you've been following along for the past few weeks, we've been going over the most recent ADP data according to the mock drafts done for the NFBC. I've now completed 14 different mock drafts looking for the most accurate data thus far and this is still it. The data here on Mock Draft Central will begin to normalize soon enough, but for now, let's just stick with what we've got and use it to the best of our abilities.
Today we're looking at the ADP trends for the Top 50 outfielders and what some of the reasons are behind the changes that we are witnessing. Some trends make complete sense while other might just be theNFBC data normalizing as well. The system certainly isn't perfect right now, but if you treat this data as a guideline rather than gospel, you're going to stay ahead of the game once the real fun begins. So let's have a look-see here…
| Rank | Player | Team | Current ADP | 1 Week Ago | Trend |
| 1 | Ryan Braun | Mil | 1.71 | 1.83 | 0.12|PERCENT| |
| 2 | Mike Trout | LAA | 2.11 | 2.17 | 0.06|PERCENT| |
| 3 | Andrew McCutchen | Pit | 5.94 | 5.79 | -0.15|PERCENT| |
| 4 | Matt Kemp | LAD | 9.57 | 6.63 | -2.94|PERCENT| |
| 5 | Josh Hamilton | LAA | 10.83 | 11.42 | 0.59|PERCENT| |
| 6 | Carlos Gonzalez | Col | 11.43 | 10.96 | -0.47|PERCENT| |
| 7 | Giancarlo Stanton | Mia | 17.49 | 17.00 | -0.49|PERCENT| |
| 8 | Jose Bautista | Tor | 23.06 | 19.00 | -4.06|PERCENT| |
| 9 | Justin Upton | Atl | 25.46 | 22.79 | -2.67|PERCENT| |
| 10 | Jason Heyward | Atl | 28.63 | 27.96 | -0.67|PERCENT| |
| 11 | Adam Jones | Bal | 31.23 | 32.38 | 1.15|PERCENT| |
| 12 | Jacoby Ellsbury | Bos | 35.29 | 34.42 | -0.87|PERCENT| |
| 13 | Bryce Harper | Was | 38.71 | 35.63 | -3.08|PERCENT| |
| 14 | Curtis Granderson | NYY | 41.54 | 39.04 | -2.50|PERCENT| |
| 15 | B.J. Upton | Atl | 45.60 | 44.75 | -0.85|PERCENT| |
| 16 | Jay Bruce | Cin | 45.86 | 44.75 | -1.11|PERCENT| |
| 17 | Matt Holliday | StL | 45.97 | 44.04 | -1.93|PERCENT| |
| 18 | Yoenis Cespedes | Oak | 48.46 | 44.38 | -4.08|PERCENT| |
| 19 | Ben Zobrist | TB | 53.49 | 49.92 | -3.57|PERCENT| |
| 20 | Alex Rios | CWS | 64.49 | 64.67 | 0.18|PERCENT| |
| 21 | Desmond Jennings | TB | 69.97 | 67.79 | -2.18|PERCENT| |
| 22 | Michael Bourn | Atl | 77.69 | 74.29 | -3.40|PERCENT| |
| 23 | Shin-Soo Choo | Cin | 82.63 | 80.33 | -2.30|PERCENT| |
| 24 | Alex Gordon | KC | 93.06 | 95.88 | 2.82|PERCENT| |
| 25 | Nelson Cruz | Tex | 100.80 | 100.96 | 0.16|PERCENT| |
| 26 | Hunter Pence | SF | 104.80 | 104.00 | -0.80|PERCENT| |
| 27 | Mark Trumbo | LAA | 105.20 | 101.50 | -3.70|PERCENT| |
| 28 | Austin Jackson | Det | 108.40 | 108.75 | 0.35|PERCENT| |
| 29 | Martin Prado | Ari | 108.83 | 107.75 | -1.08|PERCENT| |
| 30 | Carlos Beltran | StL | 111.69 | 112.04 | 0.35|PERCENT| |
| 31 | Shane Victorino | Bos | 118.11 | 118.00 | -0.11|PERCENT| |
| 32 | Josh Willingham | Min | 122.49 | 122.13 | -0.36|PERCENT| |
| 33 | Melky Cabrera | Tor | 122.74 | 115.79 | -6.95|PERCENT| |
| 34 | Michael Morse | Sea | 124.49 | 115.13 | -9.36|PERCENT| |
| 35 | Carlos Gomez | Mil | 127.86 | 131.38 | 3.52|PERCENT| |
| 36 | Carl Crawford | LAD | 134.12 | 133.96 | -0.16|PERCENT| |
| 37 | Norichika Aoki | Mil | 146.20 | 146.71 | 0.51|PERCENT| |
| 38 | Andre Ethier | LAD | 155.23 | 151.33 | -3.90|PERCENT| |
| 39 | Ben Revere | Phi | 158.00 | 164.96 | 6.96|PERCENT| |
| 40 | Josh Reddick | Oak | 159.06 | 160.29 | 1.23|PERCENT| |
| 41 | Jayson Werth | Was | 162.06 | 158.88 | -3.18|PERCENT| |
| 42 | Nick Markakis | Bal | 162.23 | 148.17 | -14.06|PERCENT| |
| 43 | Nick Swisher | Cle | 164.20 | 160.58 | -3.62|PERCENT| |
| 44 | Brett Gardner | NYY | 170.62 | 164.58 | -6.04|PERCENT| |
| 45 | Coco Crisp | Oak | 170.91 | 175.63 | 4.72|PERCENT| |
| 46 | Angel Pagan | SF | 171.97 | 168.00 | -3.97|PERCENT| |
| 47 | Michael Cuddyer | Col | 172.34 | 168.88 | -3.46|PERCENT| |
| 48 | Ichiro Suzuki | NYY | 185.71 | 185.08 | -0.63|PERCENT| |
| 49 | Dexter Fowler | Col | 201.09 | 192.83 | -8.26|PERCENT| |
| 50 | Alejandro De Aza | CWS | 204.46 | 199.46 | -5.00|PERCENT| |
Something you'll also notice that I did here was to start breaking the numbers up by round as well. Obviously, the actual number remains the most helpful, but it's also good to see round by round picks so you can see where some of the runs are developing. I highly recommend you do some copying and pasting on your own to break things down by the number of teams in your league. As we move closer to the actual draft dates, I will start breaking the data up into rounds for standard 12-team leagues. TheNFBC, if you recall, is broken up into numerous 15-team leagues.
As you can see you've got significant runs in the first and third rounds and then it stabilizes for a few rounds until you get to the ninth and 11th rounds. I t might make sense to adjust your strategy if you notice that these trends repeat throughout the whole process. Maybe you don't want to go the way of the crowd early and deal with position scarcity. Maybe you're concerned that the top half of the outfielders will come off the board too soon and you'll be stuck without an elite outfielder. Whatever the case may be, at least you're dealing with it in the best possible way.
Biggest Risers
Ben Revere, PHI (+6.96|PERCENT|) – Now that the Phillies outfield is a little more set in terms of who is getting the playing time and who isn't, Revere seems to be climbing up the ranks a bit. What's interesting about that is that, not only is Revere listed in the Top 50, but that he's solely a stolen base guy and listed in the Top 50. He does absolutely nothing else for your fantasy team, and that's the type of player post people complain about. He hasn't hit a home run in 1,064 major league at-bats, his average is middling at best, and given the state of the Phillies, it could be difficult at times for them to score some runs. Everyone says you can always get plenty of speed later on in your draft and yet here's a guy who does nothing but that, and we're still pushing him up the rankings.
Coco Crisp, OAK (+4.72|PERCENT|) – Another oddball rise in the ADP numbers, if you ask me. Yes, Coco does a little bit more than just steal bases, but is no one nervous about potential time shares in Oakland? They've got five legitimate starters and just four spots to fill and I'm not even counting the youngsters who likely won't see time beyond spring training. Someone will be left out in the cold and you betterhope it it's not one of your guys.
Carlos Gomez, MIL (+3.52|PERCENT|) – He's turned into one of the hottest, most trendiest picks around now with his 30-steals potential and supposed close to 20-HR pop. While I could see him building off a part of his numbers from last year, I have a hard time seeing an across the board, upward movement for everything.
Alex Gordon, KC (+2.04|PERCENT|) – Gordon, on the other hand, I see as a fantastic hitter and one who will, most definitely, turn a significant chunk of those 51 doubles back into home runs. He hit .333 for the final four months of the season and has shown the ability to hit for both average and power. Now that he likely won't be moved around in the order like last season, he'll be able to do the job for which he is most needed.
Adam Jones, BAL (+1.15|PERCENT|) – Still trending upwards. Gotta love it. Jones was my pick for Breakout Player of the Year in 2012 and he more than delivered, setting career-highs in numerous offensive categories. While he might not build on last season's success, he certainly has the talent to to maintain himself on this 30-HR plateau for a little while.
Biggest Fallers
Nick Markakis, BAL (-14.06|PERCENT|) – Exactly. This is my least surprising trend on the whole list. Markakis had been declining steadily over the three years prior to the 2012 season and though he did better this time around, he still hasn't hit for any kind of legit power. Sure, you can blame the fractured thumb and his missing of September, but it's not like his he was hitting for anything legit to write home about. It was a .172 ISO and likely headed south had he actually played for that final month.
Michael Morse, SEA (-9.36|PERCENT|) – The move to Seattle is finally taking its toll on Morse's ADP rankings despite the fact that they are moving the fences in at Safeco Field and he has a full-time job in right field locked down. Perhaps it's also just a general lack of faith in him to repeat the power he showed just two seasons ago. He was, after all, a pretty late-bloomer.
Dexter Fowler, COL (-8.26|PERCENT|) – While Fowler still, technically has a starting job lined up in the Colorado outfield, there are numerous trade rumors swirling around and he could conceivably be dealt right around the start of Spring Training. If he lands somewhere as a fourth outfielder, he's going to drop even further than he has already
Melky Cabrera, TOR (-6.95|PERCENT|) – OK, so maybe this is actually my least surprising trend. It's about time people stopped drafting Melky as if he was going to put up the same numbers he did last year while on the juice. How he is going this high is absolutely baffling. I wouldn't be surprised if he put up something a little closer to his final year in New York, and those numbers certainly weren't Top 50 outfield caliber.
Brett Gardner, NYY (-6.04|PERCENT|) – And finally, here's one of those inexplicable drops I have to assume is just the NFBC data normalizing. Garner has incredible stolen base potential and will be starting in center field this season. He'll likely spend half his time at the top of the order when they bump Derek Jeterdown to the two-hole which means a sweet increase in both steals and runs scored.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy and for more detailed questions, thoughts or comments, you can email him at [email protected].