Whether you're a big Dos Equis drinker or not, we all know who the "Most Interesting Man in the World" is from the commercials, right? Well, knowing that guy or at least succumbing to his "drink yourself stupid" charm is only going to get you in trouble come draft day. That's not to say you don't enjoy yourself on one of the more celebrated days of the fantasy football season, but you'll end up with a much better team if you know the recent ADP trends better than you know how long it takes you to down a pint. With that, we present to you The Most Interesting ADP Trends in Fantasy Football.
Now because of the differences we see in NFL Standard Leagues versus PPR leagues, we're going to cover them both here. This close to the season and with so many drafts taking place, It's important that both get discussed.
"I don't always play both styles each year, but when I do, I always study the trends."
Doug Martin, RB TB
ADP | Trend | |
Standard: | 34.00 | -33.7|PERCENT| |
PPR: | 35.12 | -29.5|PERCENT| |
Given the fact that LeGarrette Blount was given the starting nod in the first two preseason games, a slight drop in Martin's ADP was probably expected. But roughly a 30|PERCENT| drop in both NFL Standard and PPR leagues? Come on, people. Oh ye of little faith. The fact of the matter is that Martin is better of the two backs, Blount has a tough time staying healthy and coach Greg Schiano has already stated that he prefers Martin. What more could you want? Will the two split carries in the beginning? If Blount is healthy then perhaps, but Blount is already dealing with a groin injury he suffered in the second preseason game and might not even be standing by the time Week 1 rolls around. Martin has been the more impressive back in both practice and exhibition games and should end up the number one guy in Tampa sooner than later. If he continues to drop, scoop him up at the appropriate time and steal your way to a starting running back that won't be in a committee for long.
Cedric Benson, RB GB
ADP | Trend | |
Standard: | 86.17 | +143.4|PERCENT| |
PPR: | 86.71 | +140.2|PERCENT| |
Welcome to Green Bay, Mr. Benson. Your table is right this way (::shoves James Starks out of the way::). With just two weeks of practice under his belt, Benson is already becoming the favorite to start for the Cheeseheads in Week 1 as Starks deals with a lingering case of turf toe and Alex Green still recovering from ACL surgery. The path seems pretty clear at this point and fantasy owners are catching on quickly as Benson has skyrocketed up the ADP ranks over the last two weeks and seems primed for an additional jump if he comes away from the upcoming preseason game as the leading rusher. Starks is the better pass-catcher out of the backfield so don't expect Benson to take over completely, but in an NFL Standard league, he'll definitely be the more coveted back.
Randy Moss, WR SF
ADP | Trend | |
Standard: | 157.17 | -7.3|PERCENT| |
PPR: | 154.03 | -11.4|PERCENT| |
Moss was making a steady climb over the first few weeks of the preseason until the Niners turned around and spoke of limiting the aging but still dynamic receiver to 20-25 reps per game. Since then, he has seen a steady drop in ADP in both styles, but more so PPR leagues as news like that immediately screams limitations. But in truth, the team hasn't settled on the pecking order for their receivers just yet. It would seem that Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham have the inside edge, but Crabtree hasn't proven himself yet, Manningham has never been the featured target and, believe it or not, Moss is endearing himself to both coaches and teammates with his mentoring ways. Even is the number of plays he's on the field for is limited, Alex Smith is still sure to look for his number whenever he's out there. There's definite sleeper potential here.
Matt Ryan, QB ATL
ADP | Trend | |
Standard: | 69.28 | +14.7|PERCENT| |
PPR: | 67.31 | +17.9|PERCENT| |
It looks like people are finally starting to wise up about Ryan's abilities and potential for this season. Sure, the supporting cast is getting a little long in the tooth with the likes of Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and Michael Turner, but with a full season of Julio Jones, this offense could be even more explosive. Ryan has three legitimate targets that will keep defenses on their heels and will also integrate both Chris Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers as pass-catching backs to supplement Turner. Throw in WR3 Harry Douglass as well and the number of weapons is tremendous. The Falcons will have no problem establishing the running game which will allow Ryan to open up the offense with a fierce passing attack and rack up fantasy points galore.
Jacob Tamme, TE DEN
ADP | Trend | |
Standard: | 153.70 | +1.8|PERCENT| |
PPR: | 154.59 | -5.6|PERCENT| |
With so much attention put on Coby Fleener's relationship with Andrew Luck carrying over from Stanford, it's incredibly surprising that Tamme's relationship with Peyton Manning while together on the Colts isn't being exploited more. In 2010, Tamme was a role player who stepped it up when Dallas Clark got hurt and finished with 67 receptions for 631 yards and four touchdowns. That's not bad for starting just eight games. The Broncos also brought in Joel Dreesen and will probably go to a two-tight end formation a lot of the time, but when the pocket's collapsing and Peyton needs to dish it off, he's looking for the familiar face he knows and trusts. His ADP, overall, has been pretty stagnant, so if you're not going to go big on a tight end, then look for Tamme late and enjoy the ride.
Robert Meachem, WR SD
ADP | Trend | |
Standard: | 105.98 | -1.8|PERCENT| |
PPR: | 108.93 | -4.3|PERCENT| |
Though he continues to trend down right now, I expect that Meachem is going to start climbing the ADP charts rather quickly over the next two weeks. With Vincent Brown undergoing ankle surgery this past Sunday, both Meachem and Malcom Floyd are expected to take on larger roles in the passing game which should increase their ADP rankings steadily. But while Floyd has the rapport with quarterback Philip Rivers established, it should be Meachem who starts getting the majority of targets. He's bigger, faster and can go both across the middle and deep down the sidelines. He was always overshadowed by the likes of Marques Colston in New Orleans and still managed to find ways to shine. This year he'll take center stage.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for questions, thoughts or comments, email him at[email protected].