Everyone loves the rookies, don't they? Each year fantasy owners scour through the depth charts and draft boards hoping to find themselves some rookie who will make a strong enough impact in his first season and, hopefully, end up being a steal at the draft. People are so enamored that our own Chris Liss was being bombarded with emails clamoring for a rookie cheat sheet. He happily obliged.
So now, as part of the ADP trend series, we're going to look at where Mr. Liss' top 20 rookies are going in most drafts and check to see if they are making a big enough impact during training camp to ascend through the ranks. Or, descend if they are struggling. With the exhibition season just underway, the fluctuations could get bigger, but for now, let's see where they've been starting out.
Rotowire's Top 20 Rookies
| Rank | Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |||
| 1. | Trent Richardson | RB | CLE | 11.10 | -19.8|PERCENT| | 8.90 | -17.8|PERCENT| | 7.32 | -34.1|PERCENT| |
| 2. | Doug Martin | RB | TB | 22.59 | 2.3|PERCENT| | 23.10 | 2.5|PERCENT| | 23.68 | 4.8|PERCENT| |
| 3. | Robert Griffin III | QB | WAS | 88.76 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 88.11 | 0.2|PERCENT| | 88.29 | -0.5|PERCENT| |
| 4. | David Wilson | RB | NYG | 89.60 | 0.1|PERCENT| | 89.67 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 89.92 | 0.4|PERCENT| |
| 5. | Ronnie Hillman | RB | DEN | 93.38 | -1.0|PERCENT| | 92.48 | -1.0|PERCENT| | 91.56 | -1.9|PERCENT| |
| 8. | Justin Blackmon | WR | JAX | 116.65 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 115.58 | -1.3|PERCENT| | 114.04 | -2.2|PERCENT| |
| 15. | Andrew Luck | QB | IND | 120.54 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 119.73 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 118.71 | -1.5|PERCENT| |
| 13. | Michael Floyd | WR | ARI | 125.97 | -2.3|PERCENT| | 123.10 | -0.5|PERCENT| | 122.50 | -2.8|PERCENT| |
| 16. | Coby Fleener | TE | IND | 151.20 | -4.3|PERCENT| | 144.65 | -2.9|PERCENT| | 140.47 | -7.1|PERCENT| |
| 12. | Rueben Randle | WR | NYG | 160.61 | -4.0|PERCENT| | 154.24 | -3.2|PERCENT| | 149.26 | -7.1|PERCENT| |
| 6. | Isaiah Pead | RB | STL | 161.38 | -0.6|PERCENT| | 160.44 | -5.1|PERCENT| | 152.27 | -5.6|PERCENT| |
| 14. | Brian Quick | WR | STL | 162.54 | -3.0|PERCENT| | 157.67 | -3.3|PERCENT| | 152.42 | -6.2|PERCENT| |
| 17. | Stephen Hill | WR | NYJ | 203.41 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 205.88 | 0.9|PERCENT| | 207.79 | 2.2|PERCENT| |
| 7. | Robert Turbin | RB | SEA | 204.39 | -1.0|PERCENT| | 202.37 | 0.4|PERCENT| | 203.23 | -0.6|PERCENT| |
| 10. | LaMichael James | RB | SF | 207.51 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 207.60 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 208.18 | 0.3|PERCENT| |
| 20. | Alshon Jeffrey | WR | CHI | 207.56 | -0.2|PERCENT| | 207.22 | 0.6|PERCENT| | 208.37 | 0.4|PERCENT| |
| 9. | Bernard Pierce | RB | BAL | 207.94 | |STAR||STAR| | not ranked | |STAR||STAR| | not ranked | |STAR||STAR| |
| 11. | Lamar Miller | RB | MIA | 208.01 | 0.6|PERCENT| | 209.29 | |STAR||STAR| | not ranked | 0.6|PERCENT| |
| 18. | T.Y. Hilton | WR | IND | not ranked | |STAR||STAR| | not ranked | |STAR||STAR| | not ranked | |STAR||STAR| |
| 19. | Danny Coale | WR | DAL | not ranked | |STAR||STAR| | not ranked | |STAR||STAR| | not ranked | |STAR||STAR| |
Before we begin, the players here are listed in order of the current ADP rank. Their actual ranking according to Chris Liss is found in the far left-hand column.
So the rookie that was at the top of the list also happens to be the one player who is currently in a state of free-fall. There's no denying the talent of Trent Richardson and weeks ago, if you remember, he was listed as high as sixth in the ADP rankings. However, with more growing concerns about the Cleveland offense and their quarterback situation, reality set in for fantasy owners and suddenly the risk of taking a rookie so high up in the draft grew too strong and he began to drop. Now, with word coming that a visit to Dr. James Andrews because of knee soreness has resulted in arthroscopic surgery, Richardson's ADP rank is likely to descend even further. He is supposed to be ready for the start of the season, but he is quickly falling out of consideration for a first round draft pick.
But as you can see, Richardson is not the only one dropping in the ADP ranks. More often than not, it's extremely tough for a rookie to make a strong impact immediately, or at least quick enough for fantasy owners to be going crazy for him. Making the transition from college to the NFL can be a daunting task and, on top of that, you're rarely first on the depth chart this early in camp. For example, former Oregon running backLaMichael James is ranked 10th by Rotowire amongst the rookie class because of his enormous talent, but is barely an afterthought in the 17th round because he's sitting behindFrank Gore,Kendall Hunter and Brandon Jacobs on the 49ers depth chart. Both Robert Turbin and Bernard Pierce are in similar situations on their respective teams.
One of those rare exceptions is Tampa Bay running back Doug Martin, who, despite being listed second on the Bucs' first depth chart released, is actually considered the starter. He is also one of the few players climbing the ADP ranks and has gradually moved up into the late second round for 12 and 14-team leagues. His 4.8|PERCENT| increase is the largest for any rookie right now and with the way he has outplayed LeGarrette Blount throughout camp along with coach Greg Schiano's endorsement, that trend is likely to continue.
Players on this list that have seen a fluctuation of less than 3.0|PERCENT| in either direction are probably a safe bet at their current ADP rank for right now. No one is really being reached for and all are going right about where you would expect them to go in most drafts. Robert Griffin and Andrew Luck are well-positioned amongst several other starting quarterbacks, Justin Blackmon andMichael Floyd are right there with the third-tier receivers, andDavid Wilson and Ronnie Hillman are where they should be amongst the other back-up running backs, although Hillman's ADP could take a hit if this current hamstring injury lingers and affects his preseason.
Outside of Richardson, tight end Coby Fleener and wide receiver Reuben Randle have seen the most significant drop in ADP ranks. The notes out of camp on Fleener say that he needs to improve his receiving abilities which contradicts the scouting reports, however, with the likelihood of keeping the tight end in as a blocker to help give Luck better pass protection on a regular basis, coupled with the possibility of fellow rookie Dwayne Allen working his way into the mix, Fleener's value is taking a bit of a hit. For Randle, it's just a matter of where he is on the depth chart and the fact that Hakeem Nicks is a lot healthier today than he was two weeks ago.
The two other players that are seeing the biggest drop recently are back-up running backIsaiah Pead and rookie wideout Brian Quick. Pead is an outstanding talent and will likely see some decent playing time this season, but it really comes down to the health of Steven Jackson. Based on Pead's current ADP and the fact that it's dropping by nearly a full round, tells you that most people believe that Jackson will stay healthy this season. However, if you're going on track record, then you have to assume that he will miss at least a game or two which would open the door for Pead. With an ADP of 161.38 and apparently dropping, Pead could turn out to be one of the biggest steals of the draft.
As for fellow Ram, Brian Quick, word came out a little more than a week ago that Quick would not just be handed the starting job and when the Rams released their first depth chart, he was listed behind Brandon Gibson andDanny Amendola and is considered by some to be behind Steve Smith and Greg Salas as well. Quick is one that we expect to rise the further we head into the preseason, so consider him a strong sleeper with an ADP of 162.34.
We'll be checking back in with the rookies after additional practices and another preseason game or two as there are several that could be climbing up the ranks with improved performances and more beneficial situations. For now though, if you're drafting early, consider several of these, especially based on the Rotowire rankings, to be great bargain picks in the latter half of your draft.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for questions, thoughts or comments, email him at[email protected].