More often than not, when people are studying the ADP trends report, they tend to focus on the risers more than the fallers. The risers are usually players who have gained in popularity, maybe won a position battle, and are expected to see a general increase in overall value either immediately or sometime in the near future. The fallers are supposed to be the direct opposite – players who have fallen out of favor with fantasy owners due to things like lost playing time or touches on offense or maybe suffered some sort of injury that limits their value. But sometimes there are players who lose ground in the ADP ranks for no real specific reason at all. Maybe they just have a lower profile than some, maybe they don't play for a team with a particularly strong offense or maybe their role hasn't been as well defined as another player's. They're the players you watch your opponent's pass up on a regular basis and end up gaining in overall value because you end up drafting them at a much lower position than where they should actually go. They become the coveted value picks, the sleepers, who help you win your league's championship. Here's a look at some notable fallers right now that are coming at a cost lower than what their expected return value should be.
Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |||
A.J. Green | WR | CIN | 25.39 | -16.6|PERCENT| | 21.18 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 20.74 | -18.3|PERCENT| |
Marshawn Lynch | RB | SEA | 12.91 | -5.4|PERCENT| | 12.21 | -4.2|PERCENT| | 11.70 | -9.4|PERCENT| |
David Nelson | WR | BUF | 168.33 | -3.7|PERCENT| | 162.05 | -4.2|PERCENT| | 155.22 | -7.8|PERCENT| |
Jacoby Ford | WR | OAK | 149.11 | -4.7|PERCENT| | 142.15 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 139.17 | -6.7|PERCENT| |
Brian Quick | WR | STL | 157.98 | -3.6|PERCENT| | 152.30 | -2.3|PERCENT| | 148.79 | -5.8|PERCENT| |
Isaiah Pead | RB | STL | 161.28 | -5.5|PERCENT| | 152.46 | -0.3|PERCENT| | 152.04 | -5.7|PERCENT| |
Mario Manningham | WR | SF | 179.23 | -2.7|PERCENT| | 174.36 | -2.6|PERCENT| | 169.74 | -5.3|PERCENT| |
While the 18.2|PERCENT| drop for A.J Green seems like a lot, it really only translates to a small handful of picks this high up in the ADP rankings. Even so, any movement downward for a talent this substantial is only going to help out those who draft him that much more. With no negative reports coming out of Cincinnati, the only explanation for a drop in ADP is that people are nervous about him being the only major offensive threat the Bengals have and will regularly draw double-coverage in an attempt to neutralize his ability. If that's the case, then happily let the competition pass him by and scoop him up in the third round when you can. He'll still out-produce his draft position. Maybe he is the only game in town, but you know what…? He was the only game in town last year too and look at what he did back then. The Bengals may take some time to develop their ground game, but Andy Dalton is another year wiser and has both Green and tight end Jermaine Gresham returning along with a few wide receivers who just might surprise you by year end. Green may not put up Megatron-like numbers, but he'll be considered an elite, for sure.
With a not-guilty plea and a lawyer who is looking to drag out the case and bring it to trial,Marshawn Lynch will not see punishment from the NFL this season. Maybe you don't like the tactic and maybe you don't respect him for allegedly driving under the influence, but winning your fantasy league isn't about drafting guys you like and respect. If that were the case, then there would be a lot of high-end talent sitting on the waiver wire each year. The bottom line is that Lynch will play and he's the go-to guy in Seattle. No one is turning over the running game to an undersized Leon Washington. Lynch runs like a beast and if he continues to fall in drafts and happens to land in your lap, then you scoop up that value and run all the way to the bank with it.
We looked at David Nelson who was a riser in PPR leagues but seems to be dropping in the ADP ranks for NFL standard leagues. Yes, his value is a little lower here, but if he's dropping to the 14th round, then grab him. He averaged almost six points per week in non-PPR formats last year and if you can get that out of a guy that you are only using as a bye-week replacement, then you run with it. You'll be hard-pressed to find equal value that is as consistent as Nelson was last year and has the potential to see even more targets this season.
With all eyes on Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore, let's have everyone forget about the diminutive Jacoby Ford, his speed and his big-play ability. The third-year starter fell off the grid last season with a foot injury and now that he's healthy, he's still not drawing much focus. He's already fallen to the 12th round in numerous drafts and the week to week drop is getting bigger. If he falls further and you can steal him in the 14th round or further, you're going to end up with quite the bargain pick.
There's all sorts of talk about how Brian Quick isn't being handed anything this year and his playing time will be based on performance. Earning his keep doesn't seem to bother the rookie receiver at all, but it seems to be affecting his ADP right now. Let it happen. Injuries killed the Rams passing game last year, not anything else. With a healthy receiving corps, Sam Bradford will open up this offense and as the number one receiver, Quick is going to see plenty of targets come his way. Grabbing him in the 13th round is going to produce a tremendous value as he could end up being one of those no-brainer starts each and every week.
Fellow Ram Isaiah Pead is dropping in the ADP ranks here in the early stages simply because Steven Jackson is healthy. But that's here on August 1. Let's look at Jackson, who has taken a beating these last few seasons, around week four when the back is acting up, the quads are sore and he's having trouble making cuts on one of those ankles. He ain't gettin' any younger, you know.
And finally, there's former Giant turned 49er,Mario Manningham. The Niners have five major receivers they are looking at and while Manningham is considered the third or possibly even fourth guy on the depth chart, he's got the size, the speed, the hands and the experience to land a starting nod each week. Not to mention thatMichael Crabtree has missed three of the first four days of training camp with a calf injury and Manningham is right there to pick up the slack.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for questions, thoughts or comments, email him at[email protected].