Drafting wide receivers can be a double-edged sword sometimes. On one hand, it can be one of the most productive positions out there. Excluding quarterbacks, it was Detroit wider receiver Calvin Johnson who tallied the most fantasy points in NFL Standard leagues last season. Receivers can often be explosive, garnering huge chunks of yardage at a time, and if the quarterback gets into a rhythm with your guy during a game, the results can be amazing.
On the other hand, the position is the deepest of the skill positions used for fantasy and it tends to lull owners into a false sense of security. With so many receivers available, owners feel like they can wait on the position until further down in their draft. Unfortunately, there are still only a limited number of number one wideouts in the game and so, while you might find who puts up better-than-average points, he's not the game-breaking number one guy who can single-handedly win you a game. Yes, the position is deep, but the drop-off between first and second-tier receivers and the rest of the bunch is pretty steep.
On the downside as well is the fact that the receivers' performances are so intricately tied into that of the quarterbacks. IfEli Manning is having an off-day, then chances are that neither Victor Cruz nor Hakeem Nicks is doing anything special for you. If Matt Ryan is in a groove with Roddy White, thenJulio Jones' numbers are going to suffer. The nice thing about running backs is that they can perform brilliantly when the quarterback is either hot or cold. The receivers cannot.
But it's still a running man's game out there and it's the backs that dominate the top of the draft boards. Unfortunately, that position isn't deep enough for you to abstain too much in the early rounds so it naturally pushes off the majority of the wideouts. Let's take a look below and see where the top 20 wideouts fall in most drafts and some of the trends we're seeing with them as more people play around with mocks and more leagues continue to draft.
| Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |||
| 9. | Calvin Johnson | DET | 7.96 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 7.93 | 1.1|PERCENT| | 8.02 | 0.8|PERCENT| |
| 20. | A.J. Green | CIN | 20.73 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 20.58 | -0.1|PERCENT| | 20.56 | -0.8|PERCENT| |
| 21. | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 21.26 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 21.52 | 2.2|PERCENT| | 22.00 | 3.5|PERCENT| |
| 24. | Victor Cruz | NYG | 25.19 | -0.6|PERCENT| | 25.03 | 0.5|PERCENT| | 25.16 | -0.1|PERCENT| |
| 31. | Greg Jennings | GB | 32.61 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 32.70 | -1.7|PERCENT| | 32.16 | -1.4|PERCENT| |
| 32. | Andre Johnson | HOU | 32.80 | 1.0|PERCENT| | 33.13 | 0.2|PERCENT| | 33.18 | 1.2|PERCENT| |
| 36. | Brandon Marshall | CHI | 34.39 | -0.3|PERCENT| | 34.29 | 0.1|PERCENT| | 34.31 | -0.2|PERCENT| |
| 38. | Julio Jones | ATL | 38.95 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 39.06 | 1.7|PERCENT| | 39.71 | 2.0|PERCENT| |
| 40. | Hakeem Nicks | NYG | 41.18 | 0.7|PERCENT| | 41.46 | -0.1|PERCENT| | 41.42 | 0.6|PERCENT| |
| 42. | Percy Harvin | MIN | 43.13 | 0.5|PERCENT| | 43.35 | 0.1|PERCENT| | 43.40 | 0.6|PERCENT| |
| 44. | Miles Austin | DAL | 44.32 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 43.90 | 0.8|PERCENT| | 44.27 | -0.1|PERCENT| |
| 45. | Roddy White | ATL | 46.44 | 2.1|PERCENT| | 47.41 | 0.9|PERCENT| | 47.82 | 3.0|PERCENT| |
| 47. | Wes Welker | NE | 48.01 | 2.5|PERCENT| | 49.23 | 1.9|PERCENT| | 50.16 | 4.5|PERCENT| |
| 49. | Marques Colston | NO | 49.49 | 0.9|PERCENT| | 49.96 | 0.2|PERCENT| | 50.07 | 1.2|PERCENT| |
| 53. | Dez Bryant | DAL | 53.02 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 53.19 | -0.6|PERCENT| | 52.89 | -0.2|PERCENT| |
| 54. | Mike Wallace | PIT | 53.51 | 0.4|PERCENT| | 53.72 | 1.8|PERCENT| | 54.69 | 2.2|PERCENT| |
| 56. | Vincent Jackson | TB | 57.17 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 56.96 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 57.15 | 0.0|PERCENT| |
| 57. | Jordy Nelson | GB | 57.67 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 58.39 | 1.0|PERCENT| | 59.00 | 2.3|PERCENT| |
| 58. | Steve Smith | CAR | 57.95 | 1.6|PERCENT| | 58.87 | 0.2|PERCENT| | 58.98 | 1.8|PERCENT| |
| 59. | Dwayne Bowe | KC | 58.32 | -0.3|PERCENT| | 58.16 | 0.1|PERCENT| | 58.24 | -0.1|PERCENT| |
Similarly to the other positions we've looked at, there isn't a whole lot of movement going on right now. It's definitely early and without some on-field work to go by, we're just going off of projections, assumptions and last season's data. Not that there's anything wrong with going off of those numbers, but as we've seen each and every year, things can turn on a dime and a guy you weren't really considering is suddenly his quarterback's favorite option.
Based on the draft positions (first column on the left), you can see that once the second round is over, there's a mad dash for the receivers. In a standard 12-team league, of the 36 picks for Rounds 3 through 5 inclusive, 16 of the picks (44.4|PERCENT|) were wide receivers. As for the other positions in those rounds, it was 38.8|PERCENT| (14) for running backs, 8.3|PERCENT| (3) for quarterbacks and 5.6|PERCENT| (2) for tight ends. If you know that so many receivers are going to come off the board within those three rounds, is it better to snag one of the top four guys in rounds 1 or 2 and leave most of the receiver run to your competition then or do you load up on running backs early because you know you can make those next picks and still come away with at least two top 20 wideouts?
Though not shown on the table above, an interesting note here – the latest any top 20 wide receiver comes off the board is the 67th pick. If you want to go big on receivers this year, you're probably looking at three of your first five picks which means that you're either waiting on a second running back, which is tough to recommend, or you're waiting on a quarterback which might be the more beneficial course of action.
As it should be, it's all about Megatron. First of all, how do you not draft a guy with a nickname that good and secondly, as stated in the opening, the guy led ALL non-quarterback players in total points in NFL standard leagues. Obviously each league has its own scoring nuances and some offer different bonuses for long touchdown catches and total yards, but Calvin Johnson outscored the next best receiver by roughly 75 points last year. He is considered a no-brainer first round pick and if you look at the overall trend, you'll see that some are even considering him earlier than the 8th pick.
There was plenty of contract talk surrounding Wes Welker during the offseason, between the franchise tag and the subsequent negotiations for an extension. However, the deadline for the extension has passed which means that Welker will play this year under a one-year deal. We all know how playing for a contract can motivate a player and as you can see by his 4.5|PERCENT| increase over the past two weeks, so do plenty of other people.
Two of the more interesting situations to watch are found with the Giants and the Falcons here. Victor Cruz had an outstanding breakout season last year and Hakeem Nicks had his the year before. Roddy White has always beenMatt Ryan's go-to guy, but Julio Jones, when healthy was lighting it up. Both sets of receivers already have decent rapports with their respective quarterbacks, so it will be interesting to see if one truly gets favored over the other….in both situations. The trends rising and falling will be a good way to watch if one starts to pick up an advantage over the other. There's actually a similar development going on in Dallas right now as well with Miles Austin andDez Bryant.
Should Vincent Jackson stay in the top 20 here? There are still some question marks surrounding Josh Freeman and the rest of the Tampa Bay offense, and with the way their passing game fell apart last year, is the addition of Jackson enough to help spark the attack? There's a big difference between Freeman getting you the ball and Philip Rivers doing it, so Jackson's value is certainly going to hinge on their relationship as well as Freeman's talents.
And finally, let's all root for Steve Smith's ADP to stay right where it's at because he's a steal at the 58th overall pick. True, his production did decline in the second half of last season, but with another season to work with Cam Newton, there should be some more balance and consistency this year. I see him still having his big breakout games here and there, but I don't see the weekly disappearing acts happening as often as the y did during the latter part of the season.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy and for questions, thoughts, or comments, you can email him at [email protected].