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Early ADP Trends: Rounds 4 - 6

In the last installment of this series, we took a look at some of the ADP trends for the first three rounds of a standard 12-team fantasy football league. It was all business-as-usual as the top running backs went immediately followed by a few of the top wide receivers, a couple of quarterbacks and a pair of tight ends who, for all intents and purposes, play the game like top tier wideouts. The movement up and down the ADP rankings was pretty standard stuff with even the fringe starting backs starting to come off the board before some of the top players at the other skill positions. With how thin the running back position is becoming, these are movements that are to be expected.

So now, as we move to rounds four through six, we're looking at fantasy owners filling out the rest of the core of their team. Actually, these picks are often the most important ones you'll make in your draft. If your first three picks do what they're supposed to do, then smart picks here will easily solidify your roster and you'll likely be one of the "teams to beat" in the early goings. If your first three picks don't, then there is still enough talent to be had here that they can make up the difference for you and you can remain competitive. So let's take a look at some of the trends developing here that may help you make some key decisions for the first half of your draft.

Round 4

Current ADPChange1 Week AgoChange2 Weeks AgoOverall Trend
Shonn GreeneRBNYJ37.97-0.2|PERCENT|37.9112.9|PERCENT|42.8112.7|PERCENT|
Julio JonesWRATL38.862.2|PERCENT|39.711.9|PERCENT|40.484.2|PERCENT|
Willis McGaheeRBDEN39.47-0.8|PERCENT|39.157.0|PERCENT|41.896.1|PERCENT|
C.J. SpillerRBBUF40.73-0.5|PERCENT|40.5112.2|PERCENT|45.4611.6|PERCENT|
Hakeeem NicksWRNYG41.440.0|PERCENT|41.42-4.3|PERCENT|39.65-4.3|PERCENT|
Percy HarvinWRMIN43.320.2|PERCENT|43.40-2.0|PERCENT|42.54-1.8|PERCENT|
Miles AustinWRDAL44.020.6|PERCENT|44.27-2.1|PERCENT|43.35-1.5|PERCENT|
Darren SprolesRBNO44.170.7|PERCENT|43.842.4|PERCENT|44.911.7|PERCENT|
James StarksRBGB46.59-0.2|PERCENT|46.4916.2|PERCENT|54.0215.9|PERCENT|
Roddy WhiteWRATL47.151.4|PERCENT|47.82-5.4|PERCENT|45.24-4.1|PERCENT|
Mark IngramRBNO48.21-0.2|PERCENT|48.0911.3|PERCENT|53.5411.1|PERCENT|
Wes WelkerWRNE48.613.2|PERCENT|50.16-10.5|PERCENT|44.89-7.7|PERCENT|

The biggest movers in this section are more of your starting running backs who seem to be garnering a little more attention lately. With LaDanian Tomlinson out of the picture and Joe McKnight being a relatively limited back, Shonn Greene should start seeing a lot more work than he has over the last two seasons. He still doesn't come off as an every-down back, but he'll see more work than someone in a two back system. 

James Starks was getting some love in the press and consequently in the ADP ranks when Packers offensive coordinator Tom Clements talked about his potential for a breakout season.  In truth, the Packers don't really have anyone that strong to share the backfield, so he should be getting virtually all of the work and fantasy owners are now banking on that. Health concerns will come into play, but no more so than usual.

Teammates Darren Sproles andMark Ingram are fairly close together here with Ingram getting some extra attention lately. Hard to believe that the Saints offense will deviate from its pass-heavy style, so while Ingram is climbing up the ranks at a more rapid rate, he might be getting a little overvalued where he's being taken.

An interesting changing of the guard in the Atlanta wide receiver corps as fantasy owners believe that it isJulio Jones and notRoddy White as the Falcons receiver to own this season. White's targets definitely took a hit last season and Jones is clearly the "deep threat" of the team, so if Jones starts adding the possession receiver aspect to his game, he could actually be undervalued here.

Round 5

Current ADPChange1 Week AgoChange2 Weeks AgoOverall Trend
Jonathan StewartRBCAR49.270.3|PERCENT|49.404.8|PERCENT|51.785.1|PERCENT|
Michael VickQBPHI49.940.4|PERCENT|50.15-9.3|PERCENT|45.48-8.9|PERCENT|
Marques ColstonWRNO49.950.2|PERCENT|50.07-2.3|PERCENT|48.93-2.0|PERCENT|
Philip RiversQBSD52.79-0.3|PERCENT|52.621.7|PERCENT|53.521.4|PERCENT|
BenJarvis Green-EllisRBCIN53.110.3|PERCENT|53.257.4|PERCENT|57.177.6|PERCENT|
Dez BryantWRDAL53.39-0.9|PERCENT|52.890.5|PERCENT|53.17-0.4|PERCENT|
Mike WallaceWRPIT54.021.2|PERCENT|54.69-2.7|PERCENT|53.20-1.5|PERCENT|
Vincent JacksonWRTB57.050.2|PERCENT|57.15-3.8|PERCENT|55.00-3.6|PERCENT|
Jordy NelsonWRGB58.001.7|PERCENT|59.00-7.2|PERCENT|54.78-5.6|PERCENT|
Dwayne BoweWRKC58.200.1|PERCENT|58.24-0.5|PERCENT|57.96-0.4|PERCENT|
Steve SmithWRCAR58.620.6|PERCENT|58.98-3.3|PERCENT|57.06-2.7|PERCENT|
Ben TateRBHOU61.64-0.3|PERCENT|61.446.5|PERCENT|65.446.2|PERCENT|

The movement here is not strong at all which means that the public opinion of these players is relatively unanimous amongst those drafting. All are quality players, but none are standing out as a "must have" in comparison to the others. 

Michael Vick has seen a decrease for two very obvious reasons. Number one is still that people are more inclined to wait on a quarterback (the position is fairly deep) if it means grabbing an extra running back or a second or third wide receiver  and number two is, obviously the injury concern. The fact thatPhilip Rivers has actually seen a slight increase means that it's more the latter than the former.

BenJarvis Green-Ellis has seen the biggest increase in this round and could start climbing even higher once mini-camp begins if we see that he's more of a focal point in the Cincinnati offense. Leaving the pass-happy Patriots offense that also had a number of backs available to poach carries could be a huge thing for him. But given that we haven't really seen him shoulder the load on a full-time basis, we can approach this with cautious optimism.

The rise of Ben Tate is either Arian Foster owners panicking or a belief that he will actually continue to see an increased role even if Foster stays healthy

Round 6

Current ADPChange1 Week AgoChange2 Weeks AgoOverall Trend
Roy HeluRBWAS61.98-0.3|PERCENT|61.78-2.5|PERCENT|60.26-2.8|PERCENT|
Antonio BrownWRPIT62.47-0.5|PERCENT|62.18-0.4|PERCENT|61.93-0.9|PERCENT|
Antonio GatesTESD63.350.8|PERCENT|63.85-3.5|PERCENT|61.61-2.7|PERCENT|
Eli ManningQBNYG65.30-1.0|PERCENT|64.62-3.1|PERCENT|62.63-4.1|PERCENT|
Jahvid BestRBDET65.94-0.2|PERCENT|65.786.8|PERCENT|70.266.6|PERCENT|
Donald BrownRBIND66.52-0.3|PERCENT|66.355.5|PERCENT|70.005.2|PERCENT|
Aaron HernandezTENE67.981.6|PERCENT|69.070.2|PERCENT|69.191.8|PERCENT|
Jeremy MaclinWRPHI68.140.6|PERCENT|68.58-1.4|PERCENT|67.63-0.7|PERCENT|
Demaryius ThomasWRDEN68.47-0.5|PERCENT|68.13-0.7|PERCENT|67.63-1.2|PERCENT|
Torrey SmithWRBAL71.450.4|PERCENT|71.732.5|PERCENT|73.522.9|PERCENT|
Stevan RidleyRBNE72.410.4|PERCENT|72.675.6|PERCENT|76.746.0|PERCENT|
DeSean JacksonWRPHI72.800.9|PERCENT|73.42-0.7|PERCENT|72.930.2|PERCENT|

Very similar to Round 5 here as the biggest increases are more running backs in the news. The rumors out of Boston have Stevan Ridley as the likely guy to own from the New England backfield, Jahvid Best's backup, Mikel Leshoure, is suspended for the first two games and is still dealing with an Achilles tear, and Donald Brown seems to be solidifying himself at the top of the depth chart on a team that will likely rely heavily on its running game this year. All three could end up as number one backs on their respective teams and out-earn their current draft position.

While they remain close to each other in drafts, Jeremy Maclin andDeSean Jackson will likely trend in different directions once camp opens up. Jackson may be explosive, but Maclin seems to be the more innovative and trusted receiver on the team.

Not the biggest surprise in the world, but rather more interesting in that Demaryius Thomas isn't getting a little more attention with Peyton Manningin town. Some were singing his praises as a fantasy stud once Peyton's arrival in Denver was announced, but thing seemed to have cooled off somewhat lately.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites.  Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy and for questions, thoughts, or comments, you can email him at [email protected].