For every up, there's a down. For every in, there's an out. Every yin has its yang. And for every 20 players that are on the rise in ADP rankings, there are 20 headed in the opposite direction. The other day, we looked at the Top 20 ADP Risers and gave some thoughts as to why they are gaining such popularity in fantasy baseball drafts. Well, today we're going to look in the other direction and see who is falling out of favor these days and whether or not you should just leave them be or if maybe their initial drop here can work to your advantage and you can find a few sleepers that people seem to be over-looking.
One caveat that should be mentioned before we continue to look at the list of fallers – the majority of these players will be completely left alone in your standard 12-team mixed leagues that have limited benches. These players are, for the most part, drafted in mixed leagues with 15 or more teams and some sort of expanded bench or in AL or NL-only leagues. That's not to say they can't have value in mixed leagues as potential waiver claims or plug-and-play type guys, but a lot of the names you'll see below are far from "marquee".
Top 20 ADP Fallers
Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |
Travis Snider | 338.12 | -3.4|PERCENT| | 326.74 | -21.2|PERCENT| | 257.47 | -23.9|PERCENT| |
Rafael Soriano | 358.80 | -3.7|PERCENT| | 345.46 | -20.1|PERCENT| | 276.08 | -23.1|PERCENT| |
David Carpenter | 318.47 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 318.47 | -22.1|PERCENT| | 248.16 | -22.1|PERCENT| |
Drew Pomeranz | 292.62 | -19.1|PERCENT| | 236.79 | -2.6|PERCENT| | 230.58 | -21.2|PERCENT| |
Aaron Crow | 418.77 | -18.5|PERCENT| | 341.22 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 341.22 | -18.5|PERCENT| |
Tyler Greene | 452.89 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 452.89 | -18.0|PERCENT| | 371.21 | -18.0|PERCENT| |
Brad Peacock | 258.50 | -17.4|PERCENT| | 213.42 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 212.55 | -17.8|PERCENT| |
Randall Delgado | 399.12 | -17.4|PERCENT| | 329.85 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 329.85 | -17.4|PERCENT| |
Cliff Pennington | 265.74 | -0.8|PERCENT| | 263.67 | -16.0|PERCENT| | 221.59 | -16.6|PERCENT| |
Ryan Ludwick | 315.37 | -7.2|PERCENT| | 292.62 | -9.5|PERCENT| | 264.70 | -16.1|PERCENT| |
Sean Rodriguez | 266.77 | 0.8|PERCENT| | 268.84 | -14.6|PERCENT| | 229.54 | -14.0|PERCENT| |
Alex Presley | 251.26 | -6.6|PERCENT| | 234.72 | -7.6|PERCENT| | 216.85 | -13.7|PERCENT| |
Kris Medlen | 293.66 | -6.0|PERCENT| | 276.08 | -7.9|PERCENT| | 254.36 | -13.4|PERCENT| |
Lonnie Chisenhall | 258.50 | -0.8|PERCENT| | 256.43 | -12.5|PERCENT| | 224.38 | -13.2|PERCENT| |
Phil Hughes | 261.60 | -14.2|PERCENT| | 224.38 | 1.8|PERCENT| | 228.51 | -12.6|PERCENT| |
Henderson Alvarez | 270.91 | -1.5|PERCENT| | 266.77 | -10.9|PERCENT| | 237.82 | -12.2|PERCENT| |
David Hernandez | 329.85 | 30.4|PERCENT| | 430.14 | -32.2|PERCENT| | 291.59 | -11.6|PERCENT| |
Juan Nicasio | 291.59 | -3.2|PERCENT| | 282.28 | -8.4|PERCENT| | 258.50 | -11.3|PERCENT| |
Vinnie Pestano | 281.25 | -4.0|PERCENT| | 269.87 | -7.3|PERCENT| | 250.23 | -11.0|PERCENT| |
Fautino De Los Santos | 313.30 | -14.5|PERCENT| | 267.81 | 5.0|PERCENT| | 281.25 | -10.2|PERCENT| |
While the Blue Jays left field situation remains up in the air, Travis Snider's stock will probably continue to plummet (-23.9|PERCENT| over the last two weeks alone). Right now, if you look at Toronto's depth chart, Eric Thamesseems to have the inside track. That's not to say that Snider can't impress during the spring and turn things around, but he's going to have to watch his strikeouts, learn to draw walks a little better and ultimately, learn how to hit lefties. He worked some of that out during a demotion last season, but when he was called back up, he his season quickly came to a screeching halt with a wrist injury. He's definitely someone to keep on your watch-list right now and monitor what happens over the next month, but if you're drafting right now, you can leave him be.
When Rafael Soriano got hurt last year, he not only lost his job as the Yankees primary set-up man, but he also lost a huge chunk of his fantasy value. David Robertson took over and was absolutely amazing in his 8th inning role. Soriano might be used in specific situations in the 8th, but for now, he'll be relegated to the 7th for the most part. If injury befalls Mariano Rivera, there's a chance Soriano gains value as he's closed before in his career, but the Yanks are high on Robertson these days and rightfully so.
Don't be fooled by David Carpenter's 22.1|PERCENT| drop over the last two weeks. That has more to do with people not knowing him than it does with his talents. The Astros announced that Brandon Lyon is no lock for the closer's job in 2012 which opens the competition up a bit and could be the window of opportunity for Carpenter this spring. His 9.43 K/9 during his late season call-up is a pretty good indicator of his strikeout ability and keep in mind that his walk rate was inflated by seven intentional free passes called for by management. His under-3.00 BB/9 over th last two years in the minors is a better indicator. Keep a close watch on him this spring because if he starts to outperform some of the other closer candidates, his stock is going to shoot way up fast.
Perhaps people are realizing that Drew Pomeranz (-21.2|PERCENT|) is still probably a year or so away from really making a fantasy impact. The big lefty has great stuff and has spent this winter really working on his conditioning. He'll compete for a rotation spot this spring and while he may actually win it due to a lack of strong competition, Pomeranz has pitched a total of five games at the Double-A level and skipped Triple-A entirely when he got called up late last year. He's one to hoard in a dynasty league, but he lacks the experience to gain my confidence in other fantasy leagues.
Last year, Aaron Crow was shooting up the ADP rankings as rumors of a Joakim Soria trade swirled around. This year, an 18.5|PERCENT| decrease just over the last seven days says that not many are confident with him making the full transition to starter and sticking in the rotation. He bypassed Triple-A last year to come up as a reliever, but might need to head back down if they truly want him to start. The last time he started regularly was in 2010 at the Double-A level where he posted a 6.77 K/9 and a 4.45 BB/9, neither of which make for an enticing choice for your rotation.
Tyler Greene remains on the anonymous list, but could see a spike in his ADP rank, depending on how the second base competition runs in the Cardinals' camp this spring. He'll battleDaniel Descalso and probably Skip Schumaker for time, so while GM John Mozeliak likes him, he's still not someone to trust right now.
A 17.8|PERCENT| drop for Brad Peacock could be just what the doctor ordered for all you sleeper hounds. With the move to Oakland, Peacock stands a much better chance of beginning the season in a starting rotation and, if he can return his K-rate to where it was in the minors while also reducing his BB/9, could be a solid choice for a late round steal. Watch the action this spring and if he looks like he's going to make it, it would be wise to invest.
The 17.4|PERCENT| decrease for Randall Delgado was to be expected given the depth and talent level in the Braves rotation and farm system. He had good results last year, but from a stuff standpoint, he's just not as talented as Julio Teheran or Mike Minor. He's waiver fodder for now, but if he can fix some of his peripherals, he might be a decent pitcher to stream late in the year or if injury befalls the rotation in some way.
As for some of the others, it's about opportunity and position battles. Sean Rodriguez continues to be involved in an infield platoon, Ryan Ludwick will deal with the same again this year in Cincy, Phil Hughes looks like he's getting bumped from the rotation or, at best, a number five that will get skipped when the team needs to re-shuffle the rotation, and Lonnie Chisenhall has another year of Jack Hanahan eating into his playing time. Cliff Pennington doesn't have any competition for shortstop in Oakland, but he lost a step in the speed department last year, will be stuck at the bottom of that order and doesn't really offer much else.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire,FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at [email protected].