Considering how poorly I've been doing of late, breaking even is a minor moral victory.
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians
Over 8 +100
Indians 12, Reds 4
Rationale: Coming into this series the Indians were one of the hottest hitting teams in all of baseball, but had managed only 5 hits in each of the first 2 games this weekend (both wins). Looking for their first sweep of the Reds for the first time since June 2004, I expected the bats to wake up against Edison Volquez (3-1, 5.59). Volquez was 1-1 with a 9.39 ERA in 2 starts against the Indians, but had not faced them since 2008, or ever at Progressive Field. Cleveland starter Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 5.03 ERA) was facing the Reds for the first time. The Over was 6-2-1 in Cincinnati's last 9 games and 9-2-1 in Cleveland's last 12 games. The Indians were without Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner, but had been getting better-than-expected production from Asdrubal Cabrera, who was batting .333 with 2 homers and 6 RBI over his last 12 games.
Reality: Nailed it, with Cabrera going 5 for 5 with 2 HR and 5 RBI as the Indians completed the 3 game sweep of the Reds with a 12-4 win. The Indians top 3 hitters --Michael Brantley, Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo – combined to go 10 for 12 with 6 runs and 9 RBI. Carrasco did his part towards achieving the Over, giving up 4 ER in 6 innings, including HRs to Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.
Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles
Over 8 +100
Orioles 2, Nationals 1
Rationale: After being outscored 30-7 the previous 2 games, Baltimore got a solid performance from Jeremy Guthrie and a HR from Nolan Reimold to help snap a 4 game losing streak with an 8-3 win over Washington on Saturday. Sunday, Chris Tillman (2-3, 5.25 ERA) was facing Washington for the first time. Tillman, who threw 5 scoreless innings in an 8-7 loss at Boston on Monday, pitched despite being bothered by a stiff back. The Nationals set a franchise record with 17 runs and recorded 19 hits Friday, but had totaled 3 runs and 18 hits in 3 losses over their last 4 games. Jordan Zimmerman (2-4, 4.13) was going to have to shake the rust off, taking the mound on 10 days rest. Vladimir Guerrero looked to stay hot – he had hit .469 over the past 7 games (all multi-hit games), and .423 with 8 RBI in 7 games against the Nationals. After going 3 for 4 with 2 HR in the opener, Jayson Werth was 1 for 4 on Saturday and was hitting .444 with 3 HR and 7 RBI his last 7interleague games. The Over was 11-4 in Washington's last 15 games following a loss and 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games. The Over was 9-1 in Baltimore's last 10 interleague games, 8-1 in their last 9 interleague home games and 8-1 in their last 9 against the NL East.
Reality: Was right about Guerrero, who hit his fifth HR of the season. Unfortunately the rest of the Oriole lineup combined to go 3 for 24 with 1 R and 0 RBI… not good when you are playing the Over. In fact, Zimmermann was nearly perfect for the first 6 innings, allowing just two base runners on a walk and a double in the second inning. He had retired 13 straight batters before Nick Markakis singled and Guerrero hit what proved to be the game winner. Tillman pitched 5 innings for Baltimore, allowing 1 run on 6 hits and 2 BB. The bullpen, which entered the game with an ERA of 5.00, tossed 4 shutout innings, giving up only 2 hits and 1 BB.
SEASON RECORD: 7-11 (39|PERCENT|), - 520
Not too excited about any of the Over / Under possibilities on today's schedule and, since I was hoping to do more than just tread water, I'll revert back to trying to pick the winners with the following wager:
Philadelphia Phillies -160
Philadelphia (28-18; 16-9 H); Cole Hamels (5-2, 2.92, 1.01)
Cincinnati (25-22, 10-11 A); Bronson Arroyo (3-4, 4.11, 1.32)
Rationale: Hamels has dominated the Reds, allowing just 1 run over 23+ innings in winning 3 career home starts against Cincinnati. And, the Phillies struggling offense (.179 AVG in their last 10 games) should get a boost, even if only on an emotional level, when Chase Utley is activated from the DL today. They can really use the help, with Shane Victorino on the 15-day DL, retroactive to May 20th, with a Grade 1-2 right hamstring strain. The Phillies have failed to score more than 3 runs in each of its last 9 games. Meanwhile, the Reds have dropped a season-high 5 straight games, and cannot be too excited about facing Hamels, who is 6-0 with a 1.07 ERA in 7 career starts against them. On the flip side, Bronson Arroyo has an awful 8.10 ERA in losing his last 4 starts against Philadelphia. Cincinnati has lost 8 straight at Citizens Bank Park and Philadelphia has won 7 straight overall against Cincinnati, including shutouts in 4 of the last 5 meetings.