The first month of the season has ended and you may be looking to tinker with your roster. It is important to remember that the baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint, and you want to let the players with a proven track record have an opportunity to work out the kinks that may have them off to a slow start.
Conversely, now is a good time to move some over achievers whose price tag may be at its highest, especially if you can obtain one of those slow starters at a bargain price. Here are 20 players that, if are on your roster, I believe you should consider selling high (2011 stats thru April 30):
PITCHING
Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
Coming into the season, Lohse was hoping to secure the Cardinals fifth spot in the rotation, having pitched horribly in 2010. Anyone having him on their roster probably added him after his third start of the season (and second strong outing). Since then, they have been rewarded with two more excellent performances in which he is 2-0, with 8K, has not allowed a run and has a WHIP of 0.563.
Lohse has already matched his win total from last season, and his ERA is more than three full runs lower than his career average. He has allowed just one HR in over 38 innings, compared to averaging one every 9 innings over the past three years. At his current pace, he is projected to throw over 200 innings, something he has never done. Given his recent arm troubles, that is a recipe for disaster and a breakdown is very likely. Let it be for some other owner.
Justin Masterson, Indians
Josh Tomlin, Indians
Is there anyone who believes the Indians will continue to win at their current pace (18-8, tied with the Phillies for best record in the Majors)? Their early success has been due, in great part, to Masterson and Tomlin, whose combined stats have been nothing short of incredible… 66 innings pitched, 9-0, 40K, 2.32 ERA, 1.015 WHIP.
Despite the great start, both pitchers are striking out fewer batters than their career averages. And, as the weather warms up, balls will carry, which will especially hurt Tomlin, whose fly ball-to-ground ball ratio is 35 to 40. Move these guys before the balls start flying out of the park.
Jorge De La Rosa, Rockies
Relying on Colorado pitchers is like playing Russian roulette… a gamble I am not comfortable taking. De La Rosa has showed flashes of brilliance before this season, and overcome some minor injuries, but pitching in Coors Field is difficult enough without giving opposing teams extra base runners – his walk rate is an ugly 4.5 BB/9IP.
De La Rosa's career ERA and WHIP are 5.02 and 1.523 respectively, compared to 2011: 2.61 and 0.968. I shudder to think what his stats will look like as he normalizes over the next 25 starts. Try to make him someone else's problem.
Others to consider selling high: Dustin Moseley, Padres; Jaime Garcia, Cardinals; Alexi Ogando, Rangers; Randy Wolf, Brewers; Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles; Jason Marquis, Nationals
HITTING
Angel Sanchez, Astros
Sanchez has no power to speak of, nor has he been able to translate his speed into stolen bases. Coming into this season, he was projected to be nothing more than a utility option off the bench. Injuries to Clint Barnes and Brett Wallace, as well as inconsistent play from Bill Hall, has provided Sanchez with an opportunity to play more, and he has responded nicely.
But, aside from batting average and position flexibility (he qualifies at SS, but will likely be 2B eligible as well), Sanchez has minimal fantasy value. And, my concern is that he will not be able to sustain that average over 300+ at-bats (or, not get the at-bats to have fantasy relevance). Find someone in need of middle infield help and move him… quickly.
Jeff Francoeur, Royals
A career .268 hitter, Francoeur is off to an impressive start, batting .314 with 5 HR, 16 runs and 20 RBI. If he keeps hitting at that pace, he'll finish the 2011 campaign with 30 dingers, 100 runs and 125 RBI.
Maybe it is just me, but I really can't see that happening. Based on pre-season projections, he is more likely to hit .250 the rest of the way, with a dozen more HRs, 50 runs and 50 RBI. Francoeur's value will never be higher than it is now. Take advantage of it.
Matt Joyce, Rays
Before being benched for two games earlier in the month, Joyce was "hitting" an embarrassing .138 with 3 runs, 0 RBI and 0 HRs. Since then, he's caught on fire, batting .429 with 8 runs, 9 RBI and 2HR. Considering he is a career .243 hitter I expect him to regress big time.
Although he averages 1 homerun every 20 at-bats for his career, he has never had even 250 at-bats in a season, which means he's never been given a chance to show if the power is going to be there for the long-term. I don't think it is.
Darwin Barney, Cubs
Barney is another player who was expected to play a utility role in 2011. A September call-up last year, he is getting an opportunity to play more frequently this season. Like Sanchez, he has virtually no power or speed, but he is hitting .329. He may lose some playing time to Jeff Baker, who is day-to-day, but has a little (only a little) more pop in his bat.
Barney needs to show more plate discipline (only 4 walks in 89 at-bats; OBP of just .351) to maintain any fantasy value and I just don't see that happening; his career OBP is a dismal .294. Those same owners interested in Sanchez may like Barney. If not, there has to be something better on the waiver wire. Sell if you can.
Others to consider selling high: Lance Berkman, Cardinals; Brett Wallace, Astros; David Freese, Cardinals; Travis Hafner, Indians; Alex Gordon, Royals; Brennan Boesch, Tigers