I've now done three "expert" drafts and three "regular" drafts (I'll define regular as a public league that anyone can join). A couple of points may be recycled from my training camp notes, so bear with me. I thought I'd discuss the differences I've noticed between the two leagues and compare who's going where in each.
-Mike Sims-Walker is going way too low in general. He limped towards the finish line at the end of the season dealing with a couple different injuries including one to his calf. Now healthy, there's no reason to not think he'll get 1,000 receiving yards and 8-10 TDs even though the Jags are a run-first team. His six best games last year totaled 42 catches for 635 yards and five TDs. All of these games happened before Week 12 when the injuries started taking their toll. He was only targeted once Week 1 and he didn't play Week 5 which makes his 869 yards and seven TDs even more impressive. Given that and his late season slump due to injuries, he has the potential to put up strong #2 WR stats. I grabbed him at pick #77 yesterday in a public league, which is highway robbery. In the SOFA expert draft (a PPR league) he went at #44, which sounds like a more accurate ADP to me.
-Larry Fitzgerald is another player going too low if you're doing a public league. Yes, he's had a knee issue this preseason but when he's goofing around and tackling cameramen it makes me think he's just fine. However, it's impacted his draft position and makes him a nice target. He still went #13 in the SOFA draft and #12 in the Maniaxs Expert league. The exact opposite is happening in the public leagues I've done. There he's gone 27, 33, 40 which is way too low for someone of his talent. Derek Anderson isn't Kurt Warner but he's better than Matt Leinart and Fitz owners should hope he's under center come Week 1.
-If you're doing a public league and have an early second round pick, you can likely wait until then to take Ryan Mathews. Other players you can wait on if you use our rankings that will definitely fall lower than where we have them include: Beanie Wells, Jay Cutler, Rashard Mendenhall, Lee Evans, Robert Meachem, Donald Brown and Steve Smith. If you're targeting the following players, they're tending to go higher than we have them on the cheat sheets: DeSean Jackson, Roddy White, Knowshon Moreno and Jermichael Finley. I don't have an argument on any of the picks we have ranked higher than most. I really like Donald Brown and he could easily take over as the #1 even if Joseph Addai doesn't get hurt.
-I'm higher than most on Arian Foster. Keeping in mind he was somewhat fresh, he ran for 216 yards and three TDs during the Texans' last two games. Overall he had a 4.8 YPC average and should get 20 plus touches a game. Steve Slaton is being labeled as a "change-of-pace" guy which doesn't mean "goal line" back. Ben Tate is out and all Foster has to do is hang onto the ball and take advantage of being in one of the better offenses in the NFL.
-It sounds minor but bump up Brandon Marshall, Randy Moss and Lee Evans if Darrelle Revis continues his holdout. Neither Moss or Evans had spectacular games against the Jets last year. I swear I remember Revis not being on Moss for the one score he had against the Jets.
-I have a hometown draft (I know, no one cares) next week, which is a $100 auction. Your defense makes up four of the possible 13 points at stake each week (int., points allowed, sacks ands yards allowed). If Revis does sign, how high would you go on the Jets D?
-Don't sleep on Michael Turner in PPR leagues. Matt Ryan has already said he's going to be more involved in the passing game this year. Turner has shown up in excellent condition and will put up monster rushing and TD totals this year.
-It's a blanket statement but by the end of the year one or more of these rookies - Jermaine Gresham, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski will have had nice fantasy value. If either New England TE got hurt, I'd quickly grab the other as a solid #2 option in any format. In keeper leagues I'd look at Jared Cook, who will become a fantasy force within the next two seasons.
-I have zero interest in Javon Walker, even in my hometown 22-team league. Greg Camarillo on the other hand makes for an interesting late round pick.
-Kickers rarely make a huge impact on a fantasy squad, thus their low ADP. That being said I'm targeting Robbie Gould in late rounds. Jeff Wilkens was among the league leaders during Martz's St. Louis tenure finishing top-5 in points in 1999 (5th), 2001 (2nd) and 2003 (1st). Chicago isn't always ideal weather to kick in but Gould is extremely accurate (hasn't missed an XP the last four seasons and owns a career 86|PERCENT| successful FG mark).
-I fully expect Hakeem Nicks to outperform teammate Steven Smith and Montario Hardesty to outperform Jerome Harrison in standard scoring leagues. Re:Hardesty – it's not an easy task to hold a 4.8 YPC mark in the SEC and he made the Florida game much closer than the 23-13 score indicates.