This went down last night on Mock Draft Central. It's a 12-team, 1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 FLEX (RB/WR/TE) 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D league. PPR Scoring. Other participants: Herbie Teope, Jay Clemons, Michael Fabiano, David Gonos, John Hansen, William Del Pilar, Mike Beacom, Erin Skelley, Chris Weeks, Evan Silva and Dave Neilson. We'll discuss the draft on TV sometime in late August. I'm not at liberty to share the full results, but here's my team:
1.8 Rashard Mendenhall (others considered: Steven Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald)
2.5 Ryan Mathews (others considered: Miles Austin, Jamaal Charles)
3.8 Pierre Thomas (others considered: Steve Smith (CAR))
4.5 Antonio Gates
5.8 Robert Meachem
6.5 Jay Cutler
7.8 Malcom Floyd (others considered: Dez Bryant)
8.5 Ahmad Bradshaw (others considered: Donald Brown, Montario Hardesty, T.J. Houshmandzadeh)
9.8 Lee Evans (others considered: Devin Thomas)
10.5 Eli Manning (others considered: Mohamed Massaquoi)
11.8 Donnie Avery
12.5 Arrelious Benn
13.8 New York Giants Defense
14.5 Roy Williams (others considered: Darrius Heyward-Bey)
15.8 Antonio Bryant
16.5 Shayne Graham
Team by Position
QB Jay Cutler/Eli Manning
RB Rashard Mendenhall/Ryan Mathews/Pierre Thomas/Ahmad Bradshaw
WR Robert Meachem/Malcom Floyd/Lee Evans/Donnie Avery/Arrelious Benn/Roy Williams/Antonio Bryant
TE Antonio Gates
K Shayne Graham
D New York Giants
Notes
In both this draft and the Sirius XM one, I picked late enough where the top-five RB and my top two WRs (Andre Johnson and Randy Moss) were gone. I know the trend is to go receiver heavy this year, but in my opinion, the value has just not been there compared to the backs. So not only did I go RB/RB in the first two rounds, I went with Pierre Thomas in Round 3, due to his PPR value. I will not be forced into taking WRs just because everyone else is, and I'm fine with making some speculative plays there, and being very strong everywhere else.
My only regret was taking Malcom Floyd over Dez Bryant. Floyd is the "savvier" pick as he might be the Chargers' No. 1 wideout out of the gate, while Bryant could very well be Dallas' No. 3. But even Vincent Jackson only saw 99 targets last year, and Floyd's upside is probably Jackson, and that's assuming Jackson doesn't play at all. Bryant has no clear path, but he's the type of talent who can make the path. Always take the player you want more if you're not sure he'll be back next pick.
No one but me seems to like Lee Evans this year - people should remember how good he was with J.P. Losman as his QB, and once again, he's the only game in town.
Relating to the first point - while it seems like WR really falls off, and RB is deep, keep in mind that it may not actually play out that way. If a few of the more speculative receivers break out, and some of the timeshares (Jones-Barber-Choice, e.g.) become largely worthless due to injuries, unpredictable usage patterns and increased passing tendencies, you might be very happy to have landed a couple rock-solid backs early. The way things play out one year often has no bearing on how they play out the next, so while I'm not going to complain if I get Moss in Round 1 and Fitzgerald on the way back, I'm also not going to be cowed into making sure I get top wideouts if my draft slot isn't a good fit for that.