Week 10 Observations

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Published on November 16, 2009

We've beaten to death Bill Belichick's decision to go for it on 4th and 2 in Sunday night's game (the best take on it I've seen is here), but the real takeaway is how much Cris Collinsworth, Al Michaels, Tony Dungy and Rodney Harrison felt it was their duty to spout the conventional wisdom without even attempting to analyze Belichick's basis for the decision. Throw in Bob Costas, and it's appalling that five guys collectively making more than $10 million a year to interpret the sport for us didn't even consider the issue from a probability standpoint. Sadly, the NBC crew is probably the best one on TV. (Update: Jon Gruden just defended Belichick's call on MNF - good for him).

Maurice Jones-Drew's kneel-down at the one-yard line against the Jets and subsequent apology to his fantasy owners was first class on both fronts. Unselfish play, awareness of the game situation and knowledge of who outside of NY and Jacksonville cares about the Jets-Jaguars game.

Justin Forsett looked quicker and ran harder Sunday than Julius Jones ever has. And Arizona's been decent against the run.

Matt Hasselbeck's fumble/interception inside the five on the team's last drive to blow the easy cover (they were down 11, so a FG was coming on 4th down) was embarrassingly inept. Why even put on the uniform if you're going to lose focus when the cover is on the line?

Jay Cutler's averaging just 7.0 yards per attempt with 17 interceptions in nine games. While the Broncos have struggled of late, getting two ones and a three for him looks pretty good right now. Here are the comments we had at the time of the trade. Of course, nine games is not nearly enough time to evaluate it, but you wonder whether the Bears would do it again knowing what they know now.

Josh Freeman looks like a player. I have no idea if he'll be good, but he's certainly not overmatched like a JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn, despite far less experience. With Tampa's defense giving up points, and Freeman able to make plays with his legs, he's a worth a flier if you need quarterback help.

While Drew Brees is averaging a league-leading 8.8 YPA, he's only attempted 291 passes, good for 12th in the league. (David Garrard is 11th). Some of the reduction in attempts is due to the increased efficiency, but the improved defense is also holding Brees' totals down. Of course, Brees is first in red-zone attempts with 57, and given his efficiency, he's still fourth in yardage and second in passing touchdowns. Plus he has two rushing scores, so he's hardly been a disappointment. By contrast, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner have each attempted more than 350 passes.

It had gotten so bad for LaDainian Tomlinson that someone on Fantasy Football Live asked me whether to start Kolby Smith over him. But Tomlinson produced on Sunday and looked okay doing it. The Chargers as a team are playing better defensively, and that should give him more opportunities. Plus, he was dealing with an ankle injury early on, and the run-blocking was terrible. There's still top-10 upside here even if he's just an average back, though admittedly the time to buy was last week.

I still don't understand why the Cardinals can't get the ball downfield to Larry Fitzgerald. The idea that he's suddenly drawing added attention makes no sense as he had the best stretch of his career in the playoffs with Anquan Boldin out or limited against some of the league's best defenses. He's still third in catches, seventh in yards and first in touchdowns so far this year, but the 11.2 yards per catch is 2.5 below his career average.

Calvin Johnson's injury derailed his season, but I underestimated how much worse things would be for him with Matthew Stafford instead of Daunte Culpepper/Dan Orlovsky. I still think you should deal Roddy White, DeSean Jackson or Thomas Jones for him if you can.

In a PPR league with return yards, Wes Welker's a top-5 WR.

With Ronnie Brown and Michael Turner out this week, Ricky Williams is arguably a top-five back. In 2009.

While the Colts won the game, Tom Brady and the Pats just looked like the better team Sunday night, and that was in Indy. While the Pats were able to take away Dallas Clark, the Colts weren't able to take away anyone. And New England did a decent job of protecting the passer. The biggest surprise was how out of sync Peyton Manning looked for much of the game, though some of that was due to drops by Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon which killed drives.

It's hard to believe how bad the Browns are offensively. Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson - it makes no difference. I can't tell if it's Eric Mangini, the young receivers (though Braylon Edwards was a non-factor, too), the quarterbacks, the offensive line, or what. The line and Anderson had success a couple years ago, and Mangini's Jets offenses didn't stand out as being particularly terrible. Most teams go through cold stretches but get it fixed - Tampa, Miami, even the Rams and Lions score occasionally.

It's also hard to overstate how bad Darrius Heyward-Bey's been. Poor JaMarcus Russell does occasionally make a good throw, but gets nothing to show for it because of the drops. And it's not just the perfect 60-yard bomb Heyward-Bey let slip through his hands Sunday, but the possible touchdown that would have ensued. How can Al Davis be allowed to maintain a franchise when he's picking this guy over a Michael Crabtree who comes in cold and looks like a vet? And incidentally, it might be worth giving last year's No. 4 overall pick a few carries. Yes, we know Justin Fargas is a tough runner, but do you really need to see much more of him this season?

Despite losing four games in a row, the Giants are in great shape to win the NFC East just one game back and with home games against Dallas and Philly. Of course, they have to play better, but their last minute loss to the Chargers doesn't look as bad after San Diego handled Philly Sunday.