As much as teams try to look at the big picture, today's actual problems always seem to carry more weight than tomorrow's theoretical problems. A team with a great pitching staff in paper that's getting lit up leading into the trade deadline might feel compelled to reach out for an ace or a bullpen stopper. A team expected to score a ton of runs that hits a July offensive swoon might have trouble resisting the urge to trade premium prospects for a middle-of-the-order bat.
Here are two situations we're watching that could prompt teams to make deals they wouldn't have expected to make a few months, or even a few weeks ago.
The Tigers' Offense. Heading into last season, pundits were comparing the Tigers' attack to some of the best offenses of all time, with some even predicting a 1,000-run season. But baseball history -- or at least baseball history before the mid-90s -- tells us that hitters in their mid-to-late 30s can't be trusted to avoid sharp declines. With the PED Era fading, we should expect to see a return to more typical aging patterns. That's not to say that players like Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen ever used anything more powerful than Red Bull. But the fact remains that the Tigers now relies heavily on 20-somethings Miguel Cabrera and Curtis Granderson, and 32-year-olds Marcus Thames and Brandon Inge.
The Motor City Kitties hope Guillen gives the offense a boost. But that's asking a lot of a player coming back from a significant injury. With the now pitching-and-defense-oriented Tigers clinging to a one-game lead in the suddenly tight AL Central, and ranked 10th in the league in runs scored, Detroit might have no choice but to go after a bat. Who's out there could be another story. Victor Martinez' is being heavily pursued by a zillion teams, Matt Holliday's gone, and not many other premium bands have been mentioned in trade rumors. Dave Dombrowski might have to pull off a shocker to bolster his team's offense and make the Tigers and their lights-out top starting pitchers true World Series contenders.
The Rays' Starting Pitching. The Rays were the darlings of baseball last year, riding a talented, young starting rotation all the way to the World Series. But last year's strength has become this year's weakness. Jeff Niemann has been a pleasant surprise as the team's fifth starter. Matt Garza remains one of the better number-two starters in the game. After that, it's been all regression -- James Shields with a mild pullback from last year's performance, and Scott Kazmir, Andy Sonnanstine and David Price all big disappointments.
It's gotten so bad, in fact, that Rays management is now actively starting for a front-line starter to lead the charge in the pennant race and into 2010, with Kazmir going from highly-coveted asset to the guy whose salary the team hopes to jettison to make room for a big-ticket pickup. Cliff Lee is the pitcher most often linked to the Rays, and he'd make all kinds of sense. He won't cost more than $2 million or so in salary for the rest of this season, and he brings a $9 million team option for 2010 -- a steal for the defending AL Cy Young winner having another top-10 SP season. If the Rays get ace defender Akinori Iwamura back and healthy down the stretch, a deadline pitching pickup could look even better.