The Prospect Post: Jaylen Brown Is Dominating Out West

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Updated on March 3, 2016 9:27PM EST

For those who don't live on the west coast and like to go to bed at a reasonable time, Jaylen Brown may not be a household name. He will be soon, however. Six weeks ago I wrote about Jaylen Brown and while I liked his athleticism, I wasn't sold on his offensive game ever getting to the point where he was an asset on that end of the court. He essentially looked like Tyreke Evans, who is a solid fantasy player when he's healthy, but is not the kind of player a winning NBA franchise would covet.

My thinking has changed quite a bit since then, in part because Brown has been a much better player since Pac-12 Conference play started when the calendar turned to January.

Here are his numbers in 16 conference games:

MPG	FG%	3P%	FT%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
30	48.1	35.3	64.6	5.9	2.4	0.8	1.0	16.9

Not bad for a somewhat raw 19-year-old on a top-25 team in the country.

Brown's ability to make highlight plays has not changed since the start of the season.

View post on imgur.com

Nor has his ability to use his elite athleticism to make impact plays on defense.

View post on imgur.com

The big thing that has changed, however, is his three-point shot is much improved, and there are reasons to believe it will continue to get better with time.

My thinking has changed quite a bit since then, in part because Brown has been a much better player since Pac-12 Conference play started when the calendar turned to January.

Here are his numbers in 16 conference games:

MPG	FG%	3P%	FT%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
30	48.1	35.3	64.6	5.9	2.4	0.8	1.0	16.9

Not bad for a somewhat raw 19-year-old on a top-25 team in the country.

Brown's ability to make highlight plays has not changed since the start of the season.

View post on imgur.com

Nor has his ability to use his elite athleticism to make impact plays on defense.

View post on imgur.com

The big thing that has changed, however, is his three-point shot is much improved, and there are reasons to believe it will continue to get better with time.

View post on imgur.com

It's a fairly smooth release, and he gets plenty of arc on the shot. His release isn't all that quick, but that's something that he can improve, and given his first step and the amount of terror he can cause when he gets by his defender, Brown should be able to get plenty of space to get his shot off, especially in his rookie season. Players on the wing with Brown's attributes don't need to shoot much better than 36-38 percent from three-point range to be considered a major asset in that area, and I have a lot more confidence in his ability to reach that threshold than I did when I first wrote about him.

One thing I really love about Brown is that the ball doesn't stop when it gets to him. He makes up his mind quickly about what he wants to do when he gets a touch. Of course, this is easier in college, where Brown's athleticism and quickness allow him to get to the rim in almost all one-on-one situations if he so chooses. It's an important habit to get into though, as players like James Harden and Carmelo Anthony are great, but when they get the ball and hold it for five or eight seconds before doing anything noteworthy, the offense bogs down and teammates feel uninvolved. This aspect of Brown's game makes me believe that even if the jumper is never elite among wings, he won't actively hurt a team's offensive flow, which raises his floor considerably.

There is a reason scouts and NBA teams covet athleticism. Brown's athleticism and drive will allow for him to do the following:

be, at worst an above average wing defender capable of guarding three positions
serve as an elite transition player on offense and defense
excel as a driver in the halfcourt who will get to the foul line with regularity
get four or six points every night on putbacks and lobs.

While he sometimes looks like Harden when he's weaving his way to the hoop, Brown will be best served in the NBA playing off the ball, likely at the three, so his handles are about as good as they need to be. What will inevitably determine whether he is an All-Star or just a solid starter will be the development of his three-point shot and his free-throw stoke. Given his ceiling and his floor, he's more than worth a selection at the No. 3 spot in this year's draft, and if the draft were held today, that's exactly what would happen.

A month ago I wrote about Buddy Hield, concluding that he would be my pick if I were picking No. 3 overall in this year's draft, citing his incredibly elite shooting numbers and a lack of other safe options after Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram. Hield and Brown are both shooting 48.1 percent from the field in conference play and Hield is shooting 45.7 percent from downtown compared to Brown's 35.3 percent. However, the fact that Hield is a senior and Brown is a freshman, coupled with Brown's advantages in almost every other aspect of the game, gives him a noticeable edge over Hield and the rest of the college players vying to go third in the draft. Now that Cal has entered the top-25 and appears headed for a No. 5 or No. 6 seed on Selection Sunday, those who haven't been able to watch Brown should get at least a couple chances when the tournament gets underway.